PLEASE DON'T DRAFT ME looks at prospects whose draft stocks are skyrocketing... but probably shouldn't be.By all accounts, big dudes who can score inside and out are valued at the pro level. Spencer Hawes is such a dude, a 19-year-old freshman from Washington with legit post moves and allegedly a nice shooting touch. (To show off his stroke, Hawes even asked the Celtics trainers who worked him out last week if he could take some threes for them.)
This intriguing set of skills has teams like Boston kicking the tires at #5, and Kevin McHale's Wolves writing love letters from #7. But buyer beware: Hawe's mixtape might be pretty, but I can't imagine he'll contribute more than the slew of ubertalented swings who'll be chilling in the green room when Hawes dons his cap.
Crime No. 1 for Hawes is his ineffective rebounding at Washington. Spencer was below-average on the offensive glass for the Huskies, and didn't impress on the other end either. When you're a 6'11 post player, you need to rebound. Washington was one of the best rebounding teams in total, with the stats mostly attributable to 6'7 forward Jon Brockman and above-average play from the guards. Was it Hawes just getting outworked by his teammates for the ball? Doubtful -- Hawes has athleticism, but it doesn't show in the paint... or the stat sheet.
And while Hawes may be able to shoot in theory, he didn't show it off in actual games last season. Stroking in front of suits is vastly different than with Shawn Marion running out at you. Drafting Hawes based on watching him hit a few shots in a workout is beyond silly. As of now, he's a post scorer who thinks he can shoot.
Hawes could be a good player, with a fractional chance to be a very good player. With all the other talent in the #5-12 range -- albeit mostly at the swing positions -- why would you risk it? How different is Hawes from Seattle's Robert Swift? Swift, who matches Hawes' skills profile fairly closely, has given the Sonics close to nothing... and his rookie deal is damn near over. If you're not drafting a superstar, try to draft someone who can actually help you in the next 3-4 years.
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Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 1)
1. I concur, Hawes should stay in school. It'll give him a chance to mature and develop, whether or not the NBA is in his future. The NBA has had it's share of "stick figures" through the ages, not to mention any names.
Posted at 5:16PM on Jun 17th 2007 by Ross Grant
2. In Swift's defence, he just missed a whole season because of injury... but yeah, you're still right. Every year there's a big man that someone drafts too high and regrets very quickly, and Hawes looks like he'll be that guy.
Posted at 5:23PM on Jun 17th 2007 by Chad
3. Please dont let the Sixers see him, scott
Posted at 5:56PM on Jun 17th 2007 by scott
4. This is a completely ridiculous. First, Swift went right to the pros from HS, Hawes had one year in a difficult conference (Pac 10) utilizing multiple skill areas. Secondly, unlike Swift, Hawes can knock down a consistent 15-17 footer. Thirdly, Swift was injured as stated and is now in a long jam behind Sene and Petro. At this point, Hawes is a "poorman's" Zydrunas Ilgauskas minus the offensive rebounding (however, he liked to shoot his jumper mostly and that led to him being farther away from the basket). Quite honestly the reason the comparison is being made is simple. They are both white, young, big men trying to play a "European" style of basketball in the rough and tumble world of the NBA.
Posted at 1:11AM on Jun 18th 2007 by Cubbiessosa
5. Although I tend to agree with the general sentiment, it's mostly because Hawes lacks strength and athleticism - frankly he's a slow white guy who can't jump...
However, any comparison with Swift is completely off. I'm saying this as someone who watched every single game of both in their first season.
Swift is actually very athletic, but came in with almost no offensive skills. Hawes, on the other hand, is an excellent mid-range shooter (even against decent and tall defenders), and has a deadly 10-12-foot baby hook with either hand. He also has a nice fadeaway, but his lack of hops makes it pretty easy to block, as Stanford's Lopez brothers proved. His footwork is fantastic for his age, and he uses multiple fakes, spins, and fades effectively.
The one thing that he needs to make him a really effective NBA scorer is strength. He'll never be a jumper or a slasher, but if he bulks up and adds 20-30 pounds of muscle, he'll be difficult to neutralize inside. As he is right now, though, he's too easy to push out of the paint to be a real threat.
Posted at 7:10PM on Jun 22nd 2007 by GS
6. Above average guard play? Our guards were screwed and horrible. Seriously. We would have easily been an NCAA team if we had actually had decent guard play.
Posted at 12:33AM on Jun 25th 2007 by Grace