As we move into previewing individual teams, you'll notice that there are three different categories for teams. It's actually pretty self-explanatory.First up, we have The Dregs of the league. These are the programs that simply don't have the tradition lately. It's been a struggle to build winning teams, and/or perhaps they have gone through some coaching changes that have set the program back a bit.
I'm not going to make a blanket statement about a team not having a chance to make a bowl game, but for the schools listed among The Dregs, the climb will be the toughest. Essentially, the teams mentioned after the jump are the underdogs of the Big Ten.
| Indiana Hoosiers |
 Last year: 5-7 overall, 3-5 Big TenWHY THEY'LL WIN: Inspiration can do strange things to athletes. There is no doubt that the Hoosiers' hearts are heavy after the June death of their head coach, Terry Hoeppner. Not only are they inspired, but this might be the most talented Indiana football team since their last bowl trip in 1993. They were tantalizingly close last year, despite home losses to Southern Illinois and Connecticut. Bill Lynch takes over and finds a cupboard that is hardly bare. 16 starters are back, including dynamic offensive talents James Hardy and Marcus Thigpen. A big key for Indiana will be finding ways to get these guys the football as much as possible. The guy in charge with much of that, QB Kellen Lewis, improved throughout 2006 and will only get better as he learns to better manage the game. The defense, while still nothing more than mediocre, does return seven starters, including senior leader Tracy Porter, the team's top CB. WHY THEY WON'T: Perhaps hearts will be too heavy for IU to be totally focused on football. While not surprising given his spate of health problems, Hoeppner's passing had to take an emotional toll on these young men. The defense, while improved in many ways, still allowed over 30 points per game a year ago. No matter how much better the offense gets, it won't be enough to keep up unless the Hoosiers can shore up that side of the ball. The offensive line was a mess last year and isn't a lock to be much better this season. Hoeppner was recruiting hard to build a solid line, but the guys he brought in won't be ready to play every down this season. PROGNOSIS: The schedule dictates that a good start is essential for Indiana. The Hoosiers could easily be 4-0 heading to Iowa September 29, but last year's team tripped early and only managed a 2-2 start. The best-case scenario for the Hoosiers appears to be, believe it or not, somewhere in the area of 8-4/4-4. If focus is an issue, and/or the defense doesn't get any better, the Hoosiers could slip to 5-7/2-6 pretty easily. I think a 13th game is in order for this program this season, as IU will find a way to squeeze out a 6-6/3-5 season and go bowling. Even if it's in Detroit, it's a step in the right direction for a change. |
| Michigan State Spartans |
 Last year: 4-8 overall, 1-7 Big TenWHY THEY'LL WIN: Well, for starters, Mark Dantonio is not John L. Smith (pictured), whose fate was probably sealed with back-to-back crushing home losses after a 3-0 start. If that didn't do it, the 38-7 home loss to Ohio State would have been sufficient. Dantonio has experience at East Lansing, having worked there under Nick Saban, and his work as a recruiter made him a pretty attractive candidate for Michigan State. There is some talent to work with in the offensive backfield, with Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick leading the way. With any luck, the offensive line will be healthier and more productive. Dantonio gets weaklings UAB and Bowling Green at home to start his MSU career, and that should infuse some confidence into the team before the good teams start showing up on the schedule. WHY THEY WON'T: The passing game needs a rebuild. QB Drew Stanton and his top three receivers are all gone. In their place are new QB Brian Hoyer, who apparently likes to eat, and a bunch of new people who are supposed to catch the ball. The defense was basically a wreck last season, allowing over 28 points per game, and the front seven is undersized. Missing Minnesota and Illinois in the league schedule doesn't exactly constitute a "break", and the slate includes the likelihood of a winless season on the road (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue). PROGNOSIS: Meh. Sparty will start 2-0. Well, they'd better. Beyond that, it's going to be tough to rack up a lot of wins. If Dantonio can shape up the defense and find people to catch Hoyer's passes, he could squeeze six wins out of the team. However, another 4-8/ 1-7 season can't be ruled out. Expect Michigan State to miss out on a bowl for the fifth time in six years. |
| Minnesota Gophers |
 Last year: 6-7 overall, 2-6 Big TenWHY THEY'LL WIN: New coach Tim Brewster is off to a good start. He has gotten around the state, with visits by his staff to each high school in the state. He took over for Glen Mason, who wasn't exactly beloved among Gopher fans who thought he was aloof and not much of a recruiter. The Gophers sent Mason packing after they blew a 38-7 lead in the Insight Bowl against Texas Tech. The defense, shredded during the Tech comeback, returns eight starters, including linebackers/leaders Mike Sherels and John Shevlin. Amir Pinnix went for over 1,200 yards on the ground, and Ernie Wheelwright is a big, powerful receiver. WHY THEY WON'T: Brewster has never been a head coach or coordinator at any level. New offensive coordinator Mike Dunbar is well-versed in the spread, which requires a transition from the smashmouth offense Mason had the Gophers running. They'll still run the ball, but look for one of the freshmen QBs, Adam Weber or Clint Brewster, to win the starting job by mid-season, if not earlier. Wheelwright has never lived up to his potential, and the secondary was crippled by the arrest and dismissal of top CB Dominic Jones. PROGNOSIS: The early-season schedule is manageable. A 3-0 start is likely, even in a period of adjustment. A home Big Ten schedule of Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Ohio State probably won't net many wins, and it's hard to expect a mediocre team like Minnesota to be good on the road. It looks like 6-6/2-6 might be the best Minnesota can expect. That may be enough to eke the Gophers into a minor bowl. |
| Northwestern Wildcats |
 Last year: 4-8 overall, 2-6 Big TenWHY THEY'LL WIN: Simply put, they're better. Second-year coach Pat Fitzgerald stepped into an impossible spot last year, taking over late in the offseason after Randy Walker's sudden death. For much of the season, it looked like Fitzgerald and his staff were still feeling their way through things. They bounced back to win two of their final three games, including a two-touchdown win at Iowa, but it wasn't enough to salvage a bowl bid. This year, the Wildcats have 16 starters back, the entire coaching staff is intact, and there is some talent. QB C.J. Bacher didn't get healthy until midseason but provided the offense with some spark when he did play. Junior RB Tyrell Sutton didn't get the numbers he had as a freshman, but he did top 100 yards in three of his last five games. The defense improved in 2006, cutting a touchdown off their points per game average, and that improvement should continue with all the key players returning. WHY THEY WON'T: The only serious losses on offense were leading receiver Shaun Herbert and right tackle Ryan Keenan. Herbert will be tough to replace, but the Wildcat coaches like their depth at receiver. While the defense is experienced, it is still quite undersized, and they lack a big-time playmaker in the secondary. Junior safety Brendan Smith is the closest they have, but he's more of a hitter than a "center fielder". PROGNOSIS: The schedule, like many in the Big Ten, favors a quick start. Northwestern should go 3-0 before visiting Ohio State September 22. From there, wins may be a bit harder to come by, though the league schedule gives Northwestern a break, as Wisconsin and Penn State rotate off. Fitzgerald will likely get this team to bowl eligibility, with a 7-5/3-5 season possible. Expect the offense to improve dramatically on last year's 16.5 points per game average. |
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-01-2007 @ 11:10PM
ncaa football picks said...
The Wildcats were very young and banged up in 2006. I look for improvement and actually like your call of a 7-5 season. Fitz is doing a great job, and look for this team to make a rise in the standings in the coming years.
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8-18-2007 @ 5:12PM
Big Roy said...
You say the Cat's could go to a bowl, but you call them a dreg. I don't get it. The key word here is adversity. We all know they have had a lot of it off the field in recent years. But why can't they recover from adversity on the field. The Wildcat's often seem like they can play with anyone, and then as soon as something goes wrong, like a turnover or a bad call against them, they seem to fall apart. This pattern has been going on for years. If they can correct it they can be a sleeper.
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8-27-2007 @ 2:50PM
James said...
Indiana is not ready to nip at the heels of the big 4, but among the others, it has an opportuity to emerge, at least record wise. There are only two unwinnable games, Wis and PSU, and most likely a loss to iowa on the road. If they can go 4-0 against an awfully weak non-conference schedule, and split the remaining games win 3 of the five remainng games, (Ill, Minn, and Purdue are in Bloomington), then 7-5, 3-5 is not out of the question. Notrhwestern and MSU are not automatic losses on the road. With Thigpen, Hardy, and Lewis, points should be scored. They are not quite the doormat that they were 3-4 years ago. Hopefully, the tragedy of Coach Hep will provide some incentive and if momentum can build, the Hoosiers might get over the hump.
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