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Will Notre Dame Get Passed in All Time Victories This Year?

This might not mean much except to internet loonies who are constantly getting in pointless arguments about the relative prestige of the football programs they support or loathe, but... uh... guilty. Guilty as hell, your honor. So this may be of note for anyone with an interest in "woooo team X" internet woofing, or just historical trends in college football.

Notre Dame, as you may have heard, is 0-4 this year. Their next four games: Purdue, UCLA, BC, and USC. It's tough to find a win in there, especially when Purdue -- probably the worst team in that quartet -- is over a three-touchdown favorite this weekend. Meanwhile, Texas has been thoroughly unimpressive but is still 4-0. Why does this matter? Here's the Stassen database sorted by most all-time victories:
1 Michigan 0.74533 860 282 36 1178
2 Notre Dame 0.74382 821 269 42 1132
3 Texas 0.71756 813 310 33 1156
4 Nebraska 0.70578 810 326 40 1176
(Stassen's numbers have not been updated for this year.) Texas has been steadily chipping away here since Mack Brown arrived on the scene, but the events of this year have accelerated things so much that the catch could come this year. As of now, the Longhorns are just four games behind Notre Dame for #2 all time. If Notre Dame goes 4-8, which looks like an absolute best-case scenario, Texas can pass ND if they go 13-1, which would require making the Big Twelve Championship game and either winning it or losing it -- not likely -- and winning their bowl game. If Notre Dame goes 3-9 or 2-10, things get considerably easier, ie: can-lose-to-Oklahoma-like-everyone-expects easier. Even if they don't quite manage it this year, a 7-5 Notre Dame in 2008 will probably mean Texas has them in the rear-view mirror and Nebraska will be right on their heels. Number five, Ohio State, is a ways back at 786 but charging hard.

If you're wondering, Notre Dame is still considerably adrift of Northwestern's 607 (and counting) losses. By, uh... 342. But they did sign Weis to a 300-year contract. He can do it!

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