In case you haven't heard, Vikings running back Adrian Peterson looked pretty good on Sunday against the Bears. All he did was finish Sunday's win over the Bears with 361 total yards and a Vikings record 224 yards rushing.That performance Sunday has made him the talk of the NFL, and no less an authority than Ron Jaworski says he's already the best runner in the league.
But is it time for us to slow down just a little bit and look at things objectively? For starters, let's remember that the Bears defense of 2007 is a far cry from the Bears defense of 2006. Yes, they've got a lot of the same guys in the same uniforms, but the fact is, the Bears have struggled all year -- even the pathetic Packers running game made some big plays against the Bears a week ago. So Peterson's big day didn't come against great opposition.
And then let's remember that most fans only see the highlights, and the highlights don't show the bad plays. Peterson gets stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage quite a bit. He got stopped at the line on four of his carries Sunday and behind the line on four other carries. The Vikings' offensive line deserves plenty of the blame for that, but a running back who fails to pick up a single yard on 40 percent of his carries has some work to do.
There are also still questions about Peterson's durability. Yes, he looks good through six weeks of his rookie season. But the reason a lot of teams were skeptical of him coming out of Oklahoma is that he got hurt a lot at Oklahoma. Will he be able to manage 20 carries a game (or more, if some Vikings fans get their wish) over a 16-game season?
According to the advanced statistic DPAR, which breaks down every single play and adjusts for the situation and the opponent, Peterson was only the fourth most productive running back in the league on Sunday, behind LaDainian Tomlinson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ronnie Brown. Those three guys might not have had as many "wow" plays as Peterson, but they didn't have as many bad plays, either.
None of this is meant to bash Peterson. He's already a good player and he may well be a great player some day. But he's being talked about like they might as well start making room for his bust in Canton. And that means that while he's a very good player, he's also an overrated player.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
10-16-2007 @ 11:31AM
theomnivore said...
Sunday October 14, 2007 was AD's breakout day. I know of him from Oklahoma, but many NFL fans didn't know that he was such a stud coming out of the draft. Now they know. That's it. These are people who never knew how good Peterson was, and now they're talking about it. People have discussions about "maybe ____ is one of the top 5, top 3, top 10, etc at his position" all the time. chill. and try writing something that isn't so incessantly negative and reactionary.
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10-16-2007 @ 11:34AM
Adam said...
are stops at and behind the line of scrimmage the best way to judge a back? didn't Barry Sanders lead the world in stops behind the line of scrimmage, yet we still consider him to be the best RB ever?
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10-16-2007 @ 11:37AM
Unsilent Majority said...
"yet we still consider him to be the best RB ever?"
we do?
I'll take Jim Brown or Walter Payton.
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10-16-2007 @ 11:55AM
BrettFavre4 said...
Dude ima packer fan but hey man give credit where credits due....Whats up with the negativity...DAMN MAN THE GUYS NASTY....HE IS NOT OVERRATED...he is one hell of a running back....i wish Green Bay Had him
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10-16-2007 @ 11:57AM
flubby said...
Is there a parade that MDS won't piss on?
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10-16-2007 @ 11:58AM
notsonurishedsoul said...
I think somebody with AP whooped up on Mr. Smith's fantasy team this weekend.
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10-16-2007 @ 12:15PM
Greg Wyshynski said...
Let me put it this way: Peterson is as overrated as the Bears' defense is underrated.
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10-16-2007 @ 12:20PM
Kustie the Klown said...
NFL running backs are a dime a dozen.
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10-16-2007 @ 12:35PM
Don said...
"Overrated" is a little harsh when the guy's a backup RB in his first NFL season, don't you think? The media hype engine gushes over anyone who makes a big play in an NFL game - when this guy starts demanding trades and being a pain in the ass while his production and team take a beating - I'm lookin' at you, Larry Johnson - that's when we can pull out the "overrated" button.
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10-16-2007 @ 12:45PM
Warren said...
Adrian Peterson seems to be the real deal..However it really is way to early to say he is the best RB in the league. He has only played 5 games as a pro. In order to considered a a top tier player he must prove over the season and beyond that he is both productive and durable.
As a Vikings fan, however, with the fact that they are not a good team, and have what seems to be poor coaching it is very exciting to see Adrian Peterson give us a little enjoyment watching him play.
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10-16-2007 @ 1:04PM
mr.wright88 said...
sure if you want to be negative about AP's performance go ahead. The Bears D may not be the one from last year, but when a ROOKIE goes for 3TDs, 222yds rushing, and sets up the game winning field goal with a kick off return....ask anyone, thats a hell of a game. He's a rookie and five games into the season people want to say "rookie of the year" and "best RB in the NFL". Analysts and fans say that every year about quarterbacks, so why not Adrian Peterson.
Sincerely,
Vikings fan in Chicagoland
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10-16-2007 @ 1:12PM
Matt said...
This week is gonna be tough for AP. Dallas does have a good run defense and they will put 8 in the box since the Vikes have no passing game to worry about.
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10-16-2007 @ 2:05PM
bruce said...
Barry Sanders was notorious for lost yardage and no gained yardage plays. What's your point????? Adrian Peterson is outright dangerous. A home-run hitter. Case closed.
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10-16-2007 @ 3:03PM
GreatR said...
Adam: Brown, Sayers, LT, Payton, are all superior to Sanders.
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10-16-2007 @ 4:17PM
cbro said...
MDS, have you ever watched the guy in college? He's known for being a really tough downhill runner. One of the knocks on him coming out was that he didn't juke enough! Chicago has some good athletes and they are gonna get in the backfield now and then. Especially when they know the Vikings have no passing game.
And the injury thing is overblown. He really only had two injuries. Unfortunately they were injuries that take time to heal but they healed properly. Furthermore they were completely unrelated...a broken collarbone and a nagging high ankle sprain which hasn't bothered him since his sophomore season. He's a running back for goodness sakes! He gets pounded dozens of times a game and even more each week in practice. There'd be something wrong if he didn't get hurt now and then.
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10-16-2007 @ 4:36PM
Justin said...
Why are they still giving the ball to Chester Taylor?
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10-16-2007 @ 4:52PM
Dave said...
Jaws also said that he's the best pure runner - both Ronnie Brown and LDT have more pass yards, and are better receivers right now, which is included in your DPAR/DVOA numbers. If you take away those plays(Rush DPAR?), I think he'll be even better. Especially since those other three had superior QB's than the Vikes this past weekend.
Adding into the FO stats seem to show LDT with a cratering Success rate, while Adrian Peterson isn't doing too badly there. He's doing about as well as anyone else there.
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10-16-2007 @ 5:19PM
Football Memorabilia said...
(IN A JIM MORA "PLAYOFFS?" TONE)
Overrated? You kidding me? Overrated?
The rookie just tore a divisional rival's defense a new one with 224 rushing yards and scored 3 TDS. And to top it off he returned a kick-off in the 4th qtr. for 54 yards to set up the game-winning field goal.
Is he the best back in the league? I don't know if we can give him that title just yet. But if he shows that Sunday was no fluke, then we just might have to start agreeing with Jaworski.
Btw, I stated in my blog that Marshawn Lynch would win Rookie of the Year honors ONLY IF Peterson was playing in a reserve role. Yet in his back-up role, I just might be proven wrong come January.
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10-16-2007 @ 6:27PM
ESPNgurl said...
I live in Minnesota and he is a sweet escape for all of us, but I do have to say he is a little over-rated but come on hes a rookie in about 3 years no one really gonna care alot bout this day so let him shine! And to all those ppl from MN 2 we are never gonna win a devision title this year think bout 5 more years then maybe
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10-16-2007 @ 8:15PM
stefan said...
If Adrian stays consistently healthy (no major injuries), he'll be the greatest running back in NFL history and im glad he's a Viking
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