Pickin' On the Big Ten, Week 11 - FanHouse - AOL Sports Blog

Every Thursday, Pickin' on the Big Ten breaks down action across the conference.

Shut up. I've heard it before. The Big Ten can't count. The Big Ten shouldn't count. The level of football in the conference is as putrid as a gas station burrito.

I mean, how bad can a conference be if right now it has to count Iowa as one of its hottest teams?

This is the first time Pickin' On the Big Ten has appeared at FanHouse, but I've been writing it for nine seasons now. Over those nine seasons I've seen the conference's status change from "elite even among BCS conferences" to "sort of like the Advanced Placement version of the MAC." It's painful, to be sure, but I press on. Because with two weeks left in the season, there's a lot still up in the air. Somebody has to go lose all those bowl games, after all.

Technically, all seven of the Big Ten's bowl slots are spoken for. But realistically, only two things are certain at this point: Ohio State is going to a BCS game (unless, somehow, they lose to both Illinois and Michigan), and Minnesota players will be home for the holidays. As for everybody else? Click on for the predictions, and a not-too-improbable nightmare scenario that will leave any college football fan weeping.

Not only is it possible that the Big Ten could wind up with as many as eight 7-5 teams, it's not even all that far-fetched. Here's what has to happen:

• Illinois loses out (at OSU, Northwestern).
• Indiana loses to Northwestern but beats Purdue.
• Iowa wins out (home games with Minnesota and Western Michigan).
• Michigan State wins out, beating Purdue and Penn State.
• Northwestern wins out, beating Indiana and Illinois.
• Penn State loses out, against Temple (no, this won't happen, but Temple is a lot better these days) and Michigan State.
• Purdue loses out, to Michigan State and Indiana.
• Wisconsin loses out, against Michigan and Minnesota.

Everything else on this list could happen. Even if you take Penn State out of the mix, you still wind up with a seven-way tie for fourth place. Now remember, bowl games are not required to pick teams based on where they finish in the conference. The Alamo bowl gets the fourth pick. Put Ohio State in the BCS, Michigan in the Capital One Bowl, Penn State in the Outback Bowl, and . . . then what? How are the bowls going to pick their teams? Based on conference record?

Are you new to the business of college football, pilgrim? It'll be based on how the teams' fans travel. That's good news for the likes of Iowa and Wisconsin, not such good news for others. Depressing, isn't it? Let's look at this week's games, since they're a little less depressing.

MINNESOTA @ IOWA

To lay my biases on the table: I'm a Hawkeye fan who grew up in Iowa, and I normally post my Iowa/Minnesota prediction in Norwegian so the Gopher fans can read it. But I'm guessing that FanHouse might frown on such shenanigans, and anyway, there probably aren't any Gopher football fans left.

Hawkeyes fans, however, have a fire in their belly again. Five weeks ago the team was a steaming carcass on the Big Ten roadside, but they've won three of their last four games, and the offense is clicking. Minnesota, on the other hand, hasn't quite been able to make all the verses rhyme this year. The emotion that Floyd of Rosedale brings to this game may keep it uncomfortably close for the Hawks, but these are two teams going in two different directions. I'm picking Iowa by 10:

• BREWSTER'S ILLIN', 13
• BIRDS OF PARADISE, 23

INDIANA @ NORTHWESTERN

Both these teams have known tragedy in recent years, and both are experiencing a limited sense of triumph this season. Indiana is bowl-eligible for the first time since 1993, while Northwestern is on a two-game slide. The Cats have won every time they've scored 20 points, and lost every time they haven't. Fortunately for them, Indiana's defense is giving up an average of 26.6 points a game. Unfortunately, Northwestern is giving up 30.3. Indiana gets a little separation from the middle of the pack.

• IT'S BASKETBALL SEASON AND WE DON'T CARE, 38
• WE DON'T CARE ABOUT BASKETBALL EITHER, 24

ILLINOIS @ OHIO STATE

Remember when the Illini were a feel-good national story? Remember Ron Zook finding vindication amidst the cornfields? Well, they're still pretty good, but you won't really know it in this game.

• YOU CAN'T HIDE YOUR ILLINI, 10
• TRESSELMANIA VII, 35

MICHIGAN STATE @ PURDUE

Cultural change is always a slow process. Mark Dantonio is learning this the hard way. After a great start to the season, Sparty has returned to being Sparty-losing games they should win and generally looking like they're not getting better as the season progresses. MSU has lost two straight games where they had their opponents on the ropes in the second half. Purdue is also doing what it does every year: gorging on pastry early in the season, then puking it up all over the Big Ten. Still, despite having a ferocious pass rush, Sparty's pass defense is as wobbly as a Jello gazebo. That just plays right into Joe Tiller's hands.

• YES! NO! MAYBE!, 24
• BEER AND A BUMP, 42

PENN STATE @ TEMPLE

I said the Owls were getting better, but let's not get carried away, mmm-kay?

Wait a minute, Penn State at Temple? How did that happen?

• YES, WE QUALIFY FOR THE SENIOR DISCOUNT, 54
• MAC-RIFICE, 20

MICHIGAN @ WISCONSIN

If there's going to be a really good game in the Big Ten this week-and I'm not saying there will be-then this will be it. On the surface it looks like a gimme for the Wolverines. This year's Badger squad isn't as good as last year's; they've struggled mightily in a number of their games. Meanwhile, the Appy State game is looking like a one-in-a-million lucky shot, while the gut shot from Oregon appears to be exactly what should have happened in that game. It's been a long, long, time since Michigan could honestly be called "underrated" but honestly, people need to get over Appy State and note that this Wolverine team keeps getting better.

Unless they beat Ohio State next week and leave three 7-5 Big Ten teams home for the holidays, that is. Then you can join me in complaining that a team which lost a paycheck game wound up in the BCS.

• NOT QUITE AS BAD AS YOU THOUGHT WE WERE, 28
• NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS WE ONCE WERE, 21

Next week's games:

• Northwestern @ Illinois: With NIU's stumble, this is once again a battle to be the best team in the state.
• Purdue @ Indiana: With ND's stumble, this is . . . wait, nothing's changed.
• Western Michigan @ Iowa: Only $14.95 on pay-per-view!
• Ohio State @ Michigan: They could eliminate the rest of the conference schedule and just play this game.
• Penn State @ Michigan State: Technically, these two are 'traditional rivals.'
• Wisconsin @ Minnesota: Upset watch. I'm serious.