Pay attention if you ever want to learn how to be a blogger. Lesson one, make an outlandish prediction or claim. Two, make sure that outlandish claim is in the headline so peole will see it and be compelled to dive into the story. And that's pretty much it. Although posting a picture of a hot chick helps.Or making fun of Duke.
Then you just sit back and wait for that prediction to come true. And if it doesn't, who cares, you are just a blogger anyway, right? But if it does come true, then you can be world famous for a day as Deadspin picks it up and you can high-five all of your buddies. Or at least leave comments on their blog.
But unlike most bloggers, I am going to actually attempt to back up that prediction. An outlandish notion that will probably prompt ESPN's Bill Simmons to get me kicked out of the blogsphere.
Undaunted, here is why St. Mary's is going to beat Oregon.
Yeah, I have no idea. If I did, I would be coaching basketball. Oregon is really, really good. Malik Hairston is playing really well, averaging 22.5 points per game. Hairston has lit up Portland for 24 points and Western Michigan for 29 points. Forward Maarty Leunen might have too many "a"s in his name, but he's averaging a double-double, with 15 points and 11 rebounds per game. Tajuan Porter, who you all remember from his breakout performance in the NCAA tournament, is averaging just over 15 points per game. And Bruce Taylor (15 ppg) should be ready for tonight, too.
The Ducks are averaging more than 90 points per game and have outscored their opponents by an average of nearly 20 points per game. How and the hell is St. Mary's going to upset the Ducks?
The Gaels are pretty talented, too, led by forward Diamon Simpson who just recently notched his first double-double of the season. St. Mary's also has a pretty imposing post presence in Omar Samhan who already has 11 blocks this season, including a six-block performance against Drake. You don't see guys like Samhan in your typical mid-major programs. This is an advantage for St. Mary's With a security blanket like Samhan, the Gaels' guards can get out on Hairston and Porter and pressure them outside. Taller guards can shutdown Porter, so he could be neutralized by St. Mary's. Point guard Patrick Mills has been as good as advertised, already notching 12 steals this season.
Samhan is also pretty handy on the offensive end, too, averaging 16 points per game. The question might not be what St. Mary's does to slow down Oregon, but who can matchup with Samhan? That will be the key for St. Mary's. If Mills can continue to get Samhan the ball, the Gaels could very well spring the upset.
The last factor is the home-court advantage. St. Mary's has already sold out McKeon and that place will be rocking. If you get a chance to catch the game on ESPNU, you will notice that the fans are right on top of the action, the lighting is bad and it will be hotter than hell. This kind of atmosphere fosters upsets. Sometimes you don't have to be the better team, you just have to be better for 40 minutes. And I believe that St. Mary's is going to do that on Tuesday night.
And if not, then I'm just some dumb blogger.
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Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 1)
1. You do realize that Oregon hasn't lost a non-conference game since 2005, don't you?
Posted at 10:52AM on Nov 20th 2007 by Joel
2. Oh, of course Oregon hasn't lost a non-conference game because they take them so very seriously. Just because St. Mary's happens to be non-conference, the Ducks will try extra hard and be sure of victory!
Specifically, what you mean is that Oregon didn't lose a nonconference game last year, since they don't play non-con games in the Spring. Also, in 2005, they went 6-6. Last year, the only team with talent that they played was Georgetown, and they only went on the road twice. Oh, and last year their non-con strength of schedule was 89th in the country. Perhaps THAT is the reason that they seem to rock their non-con schedule.
Posted at 12:31PM on Nov 20th 2007 by John
3. good blog but you could have added the extra story line of Oregon coach Ernie kent coaching against the team that propelled his success. Ernie took st. Mary's to the ncaa tournament back in the day and st. Mary's has had this game circled for awhile. I still think my ducks win but look for a lot of emotion and intensity from st. Mary's.
Go DUCKS!
Posted at 2:21PM on Nov 20th 2007 by Josh
4. The only problem is that none of the players have played or were recruited by Ernie Kent. This isn't a Nick Saban-type situation.
The alumni might care, but that likely won't have a big impact on the game. The players just want to beat the No. 11 team in the country.
Posted at 4:01PM on Nov 20th 2007 by rank
5. You're right John. Outside of BEATING A FINAL FOUR GEORGETOWN TEAM AT GEORGETOWN really doesn't mean anything, because none of the other teams they faced made the NCAA tourney.
You truly are the Nostradamus of College Basketball.
One question though John: How many other NCAA teams beat a Final Four team a non-conference game?
The silence is deafening.
Posted at 5:25PM on Nov 20th 2007 by Joel
6. Also, I need to remind myself to proofread my comments before I post. Otherwise, I' might end up posting a nonsensical sentence like the one above.
Posted at 5:28PM on Nov 20th 2007 by Joel
7. You're fine, Joel. We're very casual here.
Posted at 7:03PM on Nov 20th 2007 by rank
8. Adam...I haven't heard such garbage since you and I were in Mrs. Teplow's class in '81!
Vandy
Posted at 12:06AM on Nov 21st 2007 by Vandy
9. Wow, looks like you guessed correctly. St. Mary's did play very good and Oregon played there worst game in a while and not having there best defender Bryce Taylor certainly didn't help. The only thing that I think got to the ducks that you mentioned was that St. Mary's is really good and they did play a prepared game and Oregon didn't. It's probably a good thing that Oregon lost though so now they can see that there defense is certainly there weakness and to learn from their mistakes. Hope they bounce back quickly!
-Go Ducks
Posted at 1:11AM on Nov 21st 2007 by Chris
10. Nice work Adam, a blogging genius is born.
Posted at 1:12AM on Nov 21st 2007 by Jeff Lebowski
11. Yeah you called that one. The Gaels just outplayed them tonight. Didn't seem like the Ducks could get in any kind of rhythm, while the Gaels played steady ball all night. Pretty impressed with Mills.
The way the Gaels were playing maybe the Ducks should have tried to slow the game down some. But we'll be okay. They'll learn from this game and be ready for the next one.
Posted at 1:12AM on Nov 21st 2007 by Frank
12. Oregon was a -2 favorite. Tranlated into plain English for the geeks: Oregon was the favorite to win the game, by a margin of two points. One basket. Two free throws. Whatever. A monkey could have picked that non-upset.
Posted at 3:27PM on Nov 23rd 2007 by youallsuck
13. Dude, you are the man. That was an awesome prediction. You and the St. Mary's team had to be the only people in America that foresaw this one.
http://www.makingthedance.com
Posted at 3:28PM on Nov 23rd 2007 by Tyler
14. Dude, you are the man. That was an awesome prediction. You and the St. Mary's team had to be the only people in America that foresaw this one.
http://www.makingthedance.com
Posted at 3:28PM on Nov 23rd 2007 by Tyler
15. Damn you. Go Ducks.
Posted at 3:28PM on Nov 23rd 2007 by mark
16. Bravo man, bravo.
Posted at 3:33PM on Nov 23rd 2007 by tien