FanHouse

Matt Ufford is the editor of With Leather and a co-founder of Kissing Suzy Kolber. The Prelude is his sincere examination of the coming NFL weekend.

In this week's Jamboroo, Big Daddy Drew uncovered a staple of NFL columnist wisdom when he picked the Jaguars to beat the Patriots Saturday night:

Since my picks are inherently stupid and meaningless, I may as well go ahead and pick the Jags. If you pick the Jags, you get to boast about it if they win. If you pick the Pats, you're just another guy who made the sensible, correct decision. That's no fun. Far more enjoyable to be brazen and stupid.

Brazen stupidity isn't just fun though, it's rewarding. Columnists take every opportunity to crow about the picks they get right while enjoying a freedom from accountability few members of the work force get. And this is never truer than when it comes to the most brazen and stupid of attempts at prognostication: preseason NFL picks.

I'm not opposed to preseason picks, per se. It's fun to wonder aloud what might happen, and the exercise always generates discussion among fans about what teams have been criminally overlooked or under-appreciated. My problem is that media companies are selling these football writers as experts, when it turns out their conjecture isn't any more accurate than some dumb bloggers' conjecture.

And I can prove it.

Collected below are the 2007 season predictions of two professional football columnists, two bloggers who write about sports in their spare time, and one odd collective of dorkwads and nerdbombers who are slowly changing the way intellectually curious fans look at stats.

Please note that this small sample is by no means intended to be representative of all columnists and bloggers. I picked Bill Simmons both for his popularity and to represent the ESPN juggernaut, while I consider Don Banks -- though less heralded than obnoxious crank Paul Zimmerman and fawning sentimentalist Peter King -- to be the best NFL writer (or at least the one most capable of unbiased analysis) at industry stalwart SI.
Football Outsiders got a nod because they represent both writers and bloggers (Aaron Schatz writes for FoxSports.com, Michael David Smith works overtime here at FanHouse), and they try to adhere to an unbiased scientific process. As for the blogs I chose: chance, mostly. The Postmen and Field Gulls are both on my RSS feed, and I saved their late-summer posts in order to taunt and/or celebrate them at a later date.

In an attempt to keep things simple, I looked only at what I considered the best measuring stick for predictions: division winners and playoff teams. Let's take a look.

Bill Simmons (popular ESPN.com columnist, writing from a fan's perspective) -- 4 of 8 division winners, 6 of 12 playoff teams

Notable prediction: About the Bengals: "Any time a talented team underachieves because of a crappy defense, a shaky coaching staff and a collective chemistry that could best be described as 'homicidal,' then they bring the whole crew back for another season, I can't pick them to make the playoffs."

Notably awful prediction: In picking the Falcons to make the playoffs: "[Joey] Harrington is playing for one of the best offensive minds in football on a team with good running backs, an excellent tight end and two former No. 1 picks at receiver; he gets to start 12 of 16 games in domes and ZERO games in cold weather ... I'd rather bet on Harrington playing in the perfect situation than David Garrard or Jake Delhomme, that's for sure." (Of regular NFL starters, only Tom Brady had a better TD/INT ratio than Garrard in leading the Jags to an 11-5 record.)

Don Banks (SI.com NFL columnist) -- 3 of 8 division winners, 5 of 12 playoff teams

Notable prediction: In general, Banks's analysis of players and coaches is impressive ("Wade Phillips was a pretty inspired choice to be the Cowboys' head coach, because his history of success with the 3-4 defense melds perfectly with the talent that Dallas has on that side of the ball"), but sharp insight and accurate predictions apparently aren't very closely tied.

Notably awful prediction: "The 49ers have assembled an impressive nucleus of young talent, and this could be the season where those players grow into a cohesive unit capable of making a wild-card run. Quarterback Alex Smith, tight end Vernon Davis, and running back Frank Gore give the 49ers the makings of something that could be special on offense."

Football Outsiders (collection of statheads who use a system of unusual metrics to more efficiently and effectively analyze football) -- 3 of 8 division winners, 7 of 12 playoff teams

Notable prediction: The vaunted DVOA system correctly projected the Packers and Bucs as division winners. Of course, of the 16 writers at FO, only three picked the Pack, and nobody picked the Bucs. So the system works, but the writers are broken.

Notably awful prediction: David Lewin's NFC playoff picture. Of the Eagles, Bears, Saints, Cardinals, 49ers, and Rams (all his picks), NONE made the playoffs. This is especially impressive considering he picked three of the four teams in the NFC West, and none of them were the team that has now been to the playoffs five straight years.

We Are the Postmen (two recent college graduates who also write for MLB FanHouse) -- 3 of 8 division winners, no playoff picks

Notable prediction: "Easy division for the Chargers, assuming Norv Turner doesn't screw everything up. Norv, just stand there. Look like you're working. Don't break anything."

Notably awful prediction: "AFC North: Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Browns -- The Browns are as bad as ever; the Bengals take the next step toward legitimate contention."

Field Gulls (Analysis-heavy Seahawks blog cut from the Football Outsiders cloth ) -- 5 of 8 division winners, 8 of 12 playoff teams

Notable prediction: John Morgan, the blog's primary author, on his predictions for the Steelers to go 11-5 and the Ravens to go 5-11 (both correct): "The Steelers, that good? Pittsburgh was the eleventh ranked defense on first downs, the 3rd ranked defense on 2nd downs but the 24 ranked defense on 3rd downs. That implies that in some part the Steelers were unlucky on third downs, that will not likely persist ... Roethlisberger bounces back and the (hated) Steelers make the playoffs. Oh, and everything falls apart for the Ravens, including a season ending injury for McNair."

Notably awful prediction: Morgan had the Vikings going 1-15 ("Their one win comes against a reeling Bears team in week 15") and Tampa Bay going 0-16. As the Dolphins proved this year, it's incredibly difficult to be historically bad.

Conclusions

It would be impossible to conclude from this tiny sample that the average fan with a computer is as good or better than the average NFL writer who attends training camps and speaks to coaches and players. However, Field Gulls shows that close examination of "strength of schedule, home games versus road, overall team age, DVOA and Pythagorean wins" is more valuable to predicting outcomes than, say, learning the strength of Adrian Peterson's handshake.

What we should take away from this is that, if you are in some way touted as an "expert" or "insider," you owe it to your readers to revisit your predictions with hindsight and (almost certainly) some self-deprecation. And bloggers -- we of the high horse, of the watchdog sites, of the moral outrage -- should do it, too. Fans don't particularly care if you're right or wrong in your predictions, but they deserve some transparency when they decide to figure out for themselves which writers actually know what they're talking about, and which ones just sound like they do.

Oh Right, There Are Games This Week

Seahawks (11-6) at Packers (13-3) 4:30 Saturday on FOX -- In the groupthink of preseason conventional wisdom, the Seahawks were the only obvious favorite to actually win their division (the Eagles, Saints, and Bears all missed the playoffs). Somehow, I doubt this gives them a tangible edge as they head into Lambeau.

Still, if you can handle the endless clips of Matt Hasselbeck's "We'll take the ball..." moment four years ago, this game seems like the most likely to be a closely played battle.

Jaguars (12-5) at Patriots (16-0), 8:00 Saturday on CBS -- Strangely, the most unlikely and ridiculous refrain from the preseason -- "Can the Patriots go undefeated?" -- is a mere three games from fruition, but those figure to be a very tough three games. Or at least two tough games and the Super Bowl.

A lot of folks give Jacksonville more than a puncher's chance at New England, but I'm not getting on board the Jags bandwagon. That thing looks rickety.

Chargers (12-5) at Colts (13-3), 1:00 Sunday on CBS -- This is a playoff matchup that countless prognosticators got right. The Colts had won the Super Bowl, and the Chargers went 14-2 last year; everyone picked them to win their divisions.

Earlier this season the Chargers needed six interceptions to narrowly edge the Colts. I'll slam my head in my front door until I'm unconscious if Peyton Manning does that again. (Now you have something to root for.)

Giants (11-6) at Cowboys (13-3), 4:30 Sunday on FOX -- The Eagles were the favorites of the NFC East, yet they were the only team from that division to miss the playoffs. Few people thought the 'Boys were more than a Wild Card team, while the Giants were counted out altogether. I'm sure that will be motivational fuel for both this Sunday.

The Giants have already lost to the Cowboys twice this season, including a defenseless 45-35 Week 1 barnburner and a 31-20 final that was tight until Terrell Owens put the game away in the second half. The Cowboys are a better team, but there's certainly room for the Giants to sneak away with a win here.



1. For the record, ESPN columnist Gregg Easterbrook has also done reviews of columnists' predictions. But I did it using 6,300 fewer words and 30 fewer exclamation points. And I've never been fired for anti-Semitic comments. So there.

2. For those who are curious: yes, FanHouse did make predictions. They are neither particularly bad nor good ... but if you want a laugh at the Haus's expense, you can look closely at MDS's predictions for Football Outsiders. "Brett Favre is going to be really bad this year." "[Larry Johnson] won't break down. Yet." Heh.

3. And no, I don't make any preseason predictions. This may come as a surprise, but I actually try to limit how much I look like an ass on the Internet. Besides, I revel in the unexpected -- I don't want to predict what's coming.

4. One writer who deserves praise for revisiting his predictions is ESPN's Jeffrey Chadiha. In a recent column, Chadiha takes his slice of humble pie like a man, admitting he was wrong in predicting, among other things, that Randy Moss would be a flop in New England.

5. Of the eight teams that played during the Wild Card round, the leading rusher was ... LenDale White with 69 yards? That can't bode particularly well for last week's winners as they face tougher seeds this week.

6. RotoNation has a fun collection of new football terms ... that no one will ever use. Except for maybe can-pan. I do enjoy a good can-pan.

7. Much has been made of Tony Romo's dalliance to Mexico with Jessica Simpson during the bye week. I understand that Romo has the shadow of last year's playoff blunder to overcome, but c'mon. He's 27 and dating a widely coveted pop starlet. What's he supposed to do, stay home and play Guitar Hero with his teammates?

Oh.

8. My picks this week: Packers, Patriots, Colts, Giants. I'm going with the Giants because I refuse to pick all four home teams, and I wouldn't dare jinx the Seahawks. This kind of reasoning is why I should never be allowed to make predictions.

9. Since I'm going to have to re-live Matt Hasselbeck's "We want the ball and we're going to score!" quote at least a dozen, maybe 20 times on Saturday, I'd like to take the opportunity to say that, as a Seattle fan, it remains one of my favorite 'Hawks moments. Obviously, the Al Harris pick-6 that ensued was a bitter ending, but I loved his confidence, telling thousands of hostile fans in historic Lambeau Field that his team was going to win.



Keep in mind the context that I'm working from: when Hass made that call, the Seahawks hadn't won a playoff game in 20 years. I didn't even know that Seahawks were allowed to believe that the team could win. History may remember it as a gaffe, but I'll always think of it as a moment that further galvanized my fandom.

10. That said, if Brett Favre ends the game by throwing a pick-6 in overtime on Saturday, it will replace Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS as the greatest sports moment of my life. I suppose that's pretty unlikely, but hope is the one positive emotion I can always hold on to when watching sports.

On that note, hope you all enjoy the games this weekend.