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After the surprise announcement yesterday about Yao Ming's foot stress fracture, there's been speculation that Yao could have continued playing the season with his injury. Or perhaps he was only getting surgery on his foot to give him the opportunity to play in the Olympics. I don't think that's what is happening at all.

I'm not a doctor but a friend of mine is. He provided me this link with details about tarsal navicular stress fractures. If you are a fan of all things Yao, you should check it out (along with this very sad song about Yao's foot).

Basically, if you have an injury like Yao's, continuing to play ball will result in pain and just make the injury worse. As it relates to surgery, the article states:

"Surgical intervention also may be indicated in athletes who need quick healing to allow them to return to play. The average time for athletes to return to play after surgical intervention compared with conservative management using a non­weight-bearing cast is 3.8 months and 5.6 months, respectively."

The success rate for surgery is 83% and for the conservative management is 86%.

Assuming an early March surgery date and that he heals in an average time, this article suggests that he would be ready to get back to activity in June. The problem is that anyone who is 7'6" tall and plays tons of minutes isn't an average guy.

Dr. Tom Clayton for the Rockets refuses to say whether Yao would be able to play in the Olympics because of the variability from patient to patient.

It isn't an easy call on whether to have the surgery either. His fracture was caught early so in the non-athlete population, he would likely receive the conservative non-weight-bearing cast. Though this might be the typical approach with non-athletes, Dr. David Linter as quoted in the Houston Chronicle states:

"In a situation like Yao's, where maintaining range of motion and proper fitness is important to a person his size, a non-surgical approach may have a negative impact. In a situation like that, it may prompt you to prefer surgery."

The rehabilitation that Yao receives is critical to make sure that his problem doesn't reoccur. From the medical article:

"Once rehabilitation has begun, any foot pain must be re-evaluated carefully. General discomfort caused by immobilization, along with stiffness of the talocrural, subtalar, and midtarsal joints, is to be expected and responds to physical therapy. However, if the discomfort localizes over the navicular bone, further immobilization or surgical intervention may be indicated....Analysis of the patient's gait with orthotic evaluation is prudent to help compensate for any underlying biomechanical abnormality and prevent recurrence. It is important to address any training abnormalities, nutritional concerns, flexibility issues, or other factors that may place the athlete at risk of recurrence."

In simple terms, no matter how much Yao and the Chinese government want him to play in the Olympics, if he pushes his rehabilitation too quickly or does it improperly, he could make this a more serious problem.

If this were just a medical question with any other NBA player, he certainly wouldn't play. But the games are in China, and we are talking Yao. The Chinese consider athletes employees of the state, and only allowed Yao to come to the Rockets with the condition that he continue to play for the national team and give them half Yao's salary. (He doesn't continue to send half his salary to the Chinese, but his agent won't say how much he does send)

Hopefully, the significant pressure to play the games isn't something that ends up ruining such a talented player.