Wouldn't it be fun if, for once and for all, we could put a few lingering false dichotomies in the past? If we could agree that, as it stands right now, "blog" doesn't mean "anti-mainstream," but is simply a way of organizing a website in tidy and sequential fashion, and that what one chooses to do with that organization doesn't have all that much to do with the format itself? That's reasonable, is it not?The same goes for baseball. It'd be fantastic if people could get past the idea that the only argument worth having in baseball is numbers vs. intangibles. This isn't even an argument anymore; the two work together. FRAA and VORP and PECOTA aren't here to destroy everything fun about the national pastime. They simply measure, in much more revealing and incisive ways, what has been measured throughout baseball history. So many of us have arrived at this comfort zone of reason, and yet columns like this still get written. Go on. Read it. I'm not copying and pasting, so just come right back.
Back? Good.
See, it's not that Morrissey's wrong, though he is. It's that he's arguing for a side that doesn't really exist. Baseball Prospectus doesn't claim that heart, or intangibles, or speed, or other hard-to-measure-but-obviously
I know as much about computers as I do about astronomy, but I believe the computer term for Baseball Prospectus' Sox prediction is "fatal error." I have the Sox winning 85 games and giving Cleveland a run for its money for second place in the division. I know, I know: The Indians are loaded with talent, and if it weren't for Detroit spending gobs of money, they'd be the favorites in the AL Central... you have to have some methodology of your own. "Heart" is not a methodology. "Because my gut tells me so," isn't, either. Your gut is just telling you that it liked that Corner Bakery Club Panini you had for lunch. (Mmmm. Corner Bakery.)
But, again, what about heart?
Not only that, but PECOTA wasn't spawned, Matrix-style, from the brain of a baseball-destroying supercomputer. Humans created it, and those humans appear to like baseball very much. The nebulous idea of "computers don't understand baseball" is only so much shameless luddism, aimed at a sports consumer that would prefer not to think too hard, thank you very much.
Gah. Why is this so hard to understand? Rick Morrissey is a good, thoughtful columnist for one of the country's largest papers. Why is he still making this argument? Why is anybody?
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Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 1)
1. You had me at "dichotomies."
Posted at 7:58PM on Mar 10th 2008 by Panger
2. these numbskull sportswriters remain furious at statistical analysis of baseball, yet pretty much every front office and managerial team in baseball (save dusty baker)have adopted it to a degree.
to them PECOTA is a black box--they have no understanding of it other than knowing it spits out projections that make them mad. they don't know, or care to know, that PECOTA does this in basically the same way scouts and old-timers evaluated players for years, albeit with greater scope and precision--it simply uses knowledge of past players and their historical seasons and compares them to present-day players to make reasonable predictions.
Posted at 8:28PM on Mar 10th 2008 by jack
3. ill provide the counter-arguement then: simply put, its about the statisicians desire to feel condescending.
for someone who constantly jargons on about "how were not trying to ruin the pastime!" you do plenty of it by attempting to talk down to people who oh noes! LOVED THE GAME FOR A HUNDRED YEARS BEFORE COMPUTERS!
now, you can sit here, and be a hypocrite, bashing away JUST LIKE the other side, or you can simply talk about the pecota side of things.
stop telling people wtf they should think because they believe in a different sense, manner, or point of view. and for gods sake, stop crying about how statland is bashed, because youre not. no computer on the damn planet couldve predicted the 69 mets. no computer on the planet couldve predicted the angels giving up a 14 game lead, no computer can or will EVER physically win a world series. the day i see a dell tower dig a bad throw out at first, ill stop watching baseball.
sure, call me neanderthal, and for what, because i go by gut feelings? most of the predictions i make happen, i normally dominate in the fantasy leagues and guess what? i dont sit there clinging to vorp spreads while picking, so seriously, stop being a condescending jerkoff, and acting hypocritical for pretending to be offended while being offensive, youre better than that, E.
for the record? id love to finally grasp a full understanding of how vorp and prospectus works, i do pay attention to numbers, but at the same time, i believe in a players worth just as much, if not more, based on the kind of person they are. if you dont believe it works, ill give you a solid example..NO computer saw manny taking personal time off last year, everyone knows hes lackadaisical though, you know? but theres no way analysis can determine this, only by truely watching the games, man. id love to see his predicted line though before the season, lol.
Posted at 5:53PM on Mar 11th 2008 by claytor
4. Claytor:
You're missing the point I'm trying to make, and that is this: this isn't an argument anymore. You can't discount a player's work ethic or makeup, just as you can't discount what advanced numbers tell you about his performance. You have to look at both.
I don't think that's condescending or hypocritical.
Posted at 5:57PM on Mar 11th 2008 by PostmanE
5. Hey man, honestly, i like your writing, and you do make valid points. Ill be the first to agree that i take into account vorp related things like walk ratios when considering someone like an Adam Dunn, but the old schooler in me sees the longball too, you know?
Im not trying to bash you, but i have seen you be condescending in a sense with sarcastic responses to peoples adoration of Jeter, or how they view the numbers game. Sadly its becoming a case of both sides throwing stones, the old schoolers screaming about heart and hustle, the new schoolers screaming about vorp obp slg obps and opp.
To me, the truth lies somewhere in the middle, its a numbers game, we all appreciate some guy who can go yard 50 times while hitting .300 plus, and walking a ton, but its a human game, and that includes passion. Personally i think thats what turns me off most about the numbers side, it almost feels soulless. Theres no taking into account fear of injuries to your fav teams rosters, what fluke occurrance could happen (you being a Cubbies fan should above all else know about that more than anyone, lol), im betting computers never saw that plate glass coming. Then again, neither did Pence.
I think i came off as a bit hypocritcal in arguing over the numbers game, which truthfully is sad, because as stated, id love to learn as much about it as possible, but i only want to do so in a way that doesnt hinder my basic and old school view of the game.
Regardless, i think people on both sides love the game, they just need to learn how to enjoy the others views.
Posted at 6:07PM on Mar 11th 2008 by claytor