Given the way that 7 seed West Virginia handled 10 seed Arizona in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and given the way 2 seed Duke struggled against 15 seed Belmont, you might think a West Virginia upset of Duke is a good bet today.But I wouldn't count on it. Basketball Prospectus has the goods on the reason that the Mountaineers' style of victory over Arizona is unlikely to be replicated today against the Blue Devils:
West Virginia had a much easier time against Arizona, shooting 11-of-19 from three-point range to cruise to a 75-65 victory. Guards Alex Ruoff and Darris Nichols combined to hit 9-of-14 three pointers, surprising considering that West Virginia, unlike in the past several years under head coach John Beilein, is not a three-point shooting team. Bob Huggins' Mountaineers will be hard pressed to continue their success from beyond the arc against Duke, which allows only a quarter of opponent field goals to come from three-point range, the third lowest ratio in the nation, and has held opponents to 32.9 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Duke will also challenge West Virginia's core strength on offense, a low turnover rate, as the Blue Devils defense has forced turnovers on 24.6 percent of opponent possessions.
Basketball Prospectus gives West Virginia a 37% chance of winning today, and even that strikes me as a little high. As fresh as the memories of Thursday's games are, the fact is Duke was the better team all year, and there aren't a lot of reasons to believe they won't continue to be today.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-22-2008 @ 1:10PM
jswoosley said...
Well opinions may vary, however the fact remains that during the season WVU has a better percentage 3-point shooters than Duke. Another factor is that Duke is small in size and does not have the potiential to go down in the paint against anyone including the Mountaineers. So let the game go on to prove itself. Regardless of who wins this game neither team will advance to the final four. And if either one does that will be a shocker to Blue Devil fans or Mountaineer fans.
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3-22-2008 @ 1:44PM
JKlicious99 said...
I give props to West Virginia for beating Arizona the way they did, but the Mountaineers have been a model of inconsistency all season. I would expect that Duke will play much better today than they did against Belmont and I would expect that West Virginia will come crashing back down to earth.
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3-22-2008 @ 4:50PM
Tom said...
This guy won't be making any Stock picks anytime soon.....Mountaineers clobber the Devils...how about them eers!!!!!!!
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3-22-2008 @ 5:08PM
Roger said...
Well Michael David. My mother always taught me that I should use kind and gentle words today, because tomorrow I might have to eat them.
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3-22-2008 @ 5:22PM
EskinSux said...
44 second half points. Hmmm...Perhaps this is why you are a blogger and not a professional journalist? Maybe TMZ.com is hiring.....
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3-22-2008 @ 6:18PM
LaDonna47 said...
Well, at least I hit WV in my bracket!! Kind and gentle words--Duke always has an excellent team. And to reiterate the comment by Tom, How 'bout them 'EERS!!
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