I feel that the NCAA Championship game between Memphis and Kansas will be a blowout. Well, at least a double-digit margin with one team having that cushion for most of the game.
Which team will win? Now, that's a guess.
This has been a tournament of blowouts. Of course we see the top seeded teams buzzsaw through their opponents early on in the tournament ... but the games get less competitive later on as well.
-First Round: The average margin of victory was 15.3 ppg ... with 23 games decided by double-digits (11 of them by at least 19 points).
-Second Round: This has actually been the most competitive round. The average margin of victory was down to 11.3 ... and that includes UNC and Louisville hanging 30+ point beatings on their opponents (without those two, the average is around 8 ppg). Only 7 of 16 games were decided by double digits.
-Sweet 16: This was the ultimate round of blowouts. The margin of victory was 15.5 points ... as 7 of 8 games were decided by double digits. Only UCLA and Xavier won by less than 15 points.
-Elite Eight: A bit closer (12.3 average), but three of the four games were decided by double digits.
-Final Four: This was touted the greatest Final Four ever because all #1 seeds advanced here. Doesn't make sense that the margin of victory (16.5) was the greatest of the tournament. Heck, Kansas held 28-point lead over the top-ranked Tar Heels at one point.
Of these stats, there is one thing that does suggest this could be a closer game: the second round of the weekend sees better games than the one before it. You could dismiss that as "duh, there are better teams facing off" ... but that didn't hold true between rounds 2 to 3 and 4 to 5.
I hope this will be a great game and my eyes tell me it will be. However, the tournament trend isn't as kind to that.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-08-2008 @ 2:15AM
Doc's Sports Predictions Guy said...
I agree that this was kind of a lame tournament. Lots of chalk covering, as evidenced by the fact that all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Big Show. But that game almost made up for everything. Almost!
Fantastic game and Kansas, I suppose, deserves to enjoy the title. However, that has to be one of the all-time chokes by the Memphis Tigers.
What do you think Calipari is going to say now about his team's free throw shooting?
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