The Rotation is a weekly study on the NBA by one of our All-Star voices. In rotation this week is Tom Ziller.
Laugh away, you cynics. You see Carlos Boozer and Dwight Howard looking up at a headline about winning the NBA championship, and you laugh. You think to yourself, "Self, there's no way Tracy McGrady or Chris Paul can win it all this year."
You laugh, but you shouldn't. Ten teams have a legitimate shot at winning this title -- the top seven of the West and the top three in the East. The elite tier of the NBA is just that crowded this year, and it should be no surprise to see confetti raining down on any of those 10 faces come June.
First, let me show you why this postseason is so wide open.
The x axis represents offensive rating, the Dean Oliver-created metric which represents a team's points per 100 possessions. (More info on why we use this can be found here.) The y axis represents defensive rating, which is exactly like offensive rating but for defense. Better offenses are found to the right, better defenses are found toward the top.
Note that I omitted all but the best 10 teams in the league here -- I'm not going to blow smoke about a Denver championship. There are three tiers of the NBA, and I'm only vouching for the top:
Denver, Toronto and Golden State would like admission to The Upper Crust, but they didn't wear collared shirts. No t-shirts in The Upper Crust!
Those 10 Upper Crust teams, though, have real shots at the title. The map shows seven of them clustered together, all similar in quality. Boston stands alone, with an unbelievable defense but a somewhat lacking (by these standards) offense. San Antonio and Houston share "great defense, questionable offense" characteristics.
Most folks only give championship credence to the Celtics, Spurs, Lakers, Suns, and Pistons. You might be able to find someone who thinks Dallas can win it all. Maybe some seamheads (like John Hollinger) will pick Utah. But only the grandmothers of Tyson Chandler and Rashard Lewis are betting on New Orleans or Orlando. But the fact is, they're right in the hunt with the other teams usually named as possible champs. Consider:The Spurs and Rockets are practically identical statistically. It's remarkable to me that you'll find plenty of folks circle San Antonio ... and no one to choose Houston. Why?
Both are top three on defense and about league-average on offense. Both suffer stretches where buckets are hard to come by ... but both give their opponents plenty of stretches where buckets are hard to come by. And save your breath -- I can hear your cranial gears pumping out the "San Antonio's got championship experience! T-Mac can't get out of the first round!" argument already. I also heard that argument before Peyton and Eli Manning won back-to-back Super Bowls. As such, you won't find me (or Dwyane Wade) backing the assumptions that only experienced teams win titles.
The Spurs have the league's best interior defense and a top five two-guard who can score on anyone. The Rockets have the league's best perimeter defense and a top five two-guard who can score on anyone.
Boston's a tasty jar of pickles. The Celtics have been, by far, the best NBA team this season. They have an absolutely dominant defense, as good as those the Spurs have presented during their title era. The offense is quite good, too -- #11 in the league.
But there are questions about Boston. As the quality of competition rises, ball-handling takes on increased import. And the Celtics are the absolute worst team in the league in turnover ratio (in other words, Boston's possessions end in turnovers more than any other team in the entire league ... even the Knicks). The Celtics also foul quite a bit, ranking #23 in defensive free throw rate. The playoffs are filled with exactly the sort of star players (LeBron, Kobe, Amare, Bosh, Billups, Gilbert, Manu) who draw a ton of fouls. (But yeah, Boston is tremendous.)
The Pistons haven't been better this decade. Statistically, Detroit's better than it was in 2005-06 ... when it won 64 games. That season, the Pistons basically had no bench and all the main pieces were tuckered out by the time May hit. (All five starters had averaged 35 minutes per game. Detroit lost in 6 to Miami in the conference finals.) This year, no Piston averages more than 34 minutes a night, and there is firepower (both offensive and defensive) on the bench.The Lakers, Jazz, and Suns have amazing offenses. If the inclusion of Los Angeles and Phoenix among title contenders doesn't surprise you, then neither should Utah. Everyone knows by now the Suns and Lakers do their business on offense, each with insanely talented multi-pronged attacks. But the Jazz offense is even better. They draw a ton of fouls, shoot as efficiently as anyone, and devour opponents on the offensive boards. The defense is significantly more stout than that of Phoenix, and on par with that of Los Angeles. If you're picking the Lakers or Suns, you should strongly consider the statistically superior Jazz.
The Hornets are monsters on both ends. New Orleans boasts the #4 offense and the #5 defense in the league. Only Detroit can match that sort of balance this season. As they've shown by hanging around the #1 seed all spring, they have the talent and fit to whoop anyone. The tandem of Chandler and David West keeps the glass clean every night; Chris Paul, West and Peja Stojakovic provide a relentless perimeter attack. The bench may lack a bit, but the team's top four is among the very best.
The Magic are also quite balanced. Orlando's a middle-class man's Detroit at this point: great offense, very good defense. Stan Van Gundy's coach-of-the-year prospects are the direct result of the importation of Rashard Lewis in combination with the offensive maturation of Howard, Hedo Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson. The Orlando defense was this good last season; the offense has blasted straight from the basement to elite status. Efficiency's the game: among the Magic's rotation players, only Brian Cook has a true shooting percentage below league average. Either Orlando's been on a six-month hot streak, or they are damn good.
The Mavericks can beat everyone. I'm going to sidestep the statistics for a moment to talk about Dallas. On paper, they are virtually identical to Orlando, and that's good enough to beat anyone. The roster isn't as balanced as its counterparts, with Dirk and Josh Howard and some lower tier offensive players. But angry Dirk and angry Howard at the top, Jason Kidd playing surprisingly vital defense, Erick Dampier owning the glass, Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse a moment away from raining dozens, and Brandon Bass doing his best Jason Maxiell impersonation ... this is a very good team which has gotten better and better as the season moves along. More pundits will pick Dallas than Orlando or New Orleans. The justification might be experience, Kidd's leadership, or universal scorn. But the reason Dallas can compete is that they are playing at peak level at the right time of the year.
If any of these 10 teams loses to another, it is not an upset. There will be no upsets this year, because there are no prohibitive favorites past the first round (and not even then in the West). Anybody can win this thing, and I, for one, can't wait to see who it will be.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-14-2008 @ 2:00PM
Jeff W said...
Nice one, Tom.
And a pleasant surprise to find the Raptors at the border of the upper crust, among the likes of the Nuggets and Warriors. All Toronto needs now is secondary scoring and better defense. Yup, that's all.
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4-14-2008 @ 3:49PM
Martin said...
The Lakers were very good defensively until the loss of Bynum and Ariza. Gasol's length is helpful on defense, but he's no Bynum. If Bynum and Ariza are able to play in the playoffs, and can mesh with Gasol, I look for a Lakers/Celtics final and harmony will have been restored in the universe (with the Lakers having a slight advantage of winning it all.) If Bynum and Ariza don't return, the Lakers have about as good a chance as any other Western Conference team to make it to the finals, but Boston should take it all.
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4-14-2008 @ 5:04PM
Michael Corgnati said...
Lakers vs Celtics in the finals.......I am a life long Celtic fan hoping for another title.......especially sweet if they beat the Lakers.....but the lakers are REAL good!
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4-14-2008 @ 6:31PM
g said...
Anybody out of that group CAN win the title..the question is why are some of the other teams even in the playoffs? Once again the LamEast will put sub 500 teams into the playoffs...while the West has a .600 team that won't make it...WTF....When is the league truly going to go for the Parity it says it likes by putting up a best of the best top 16 playoff seeding...???then you wouldn't have good to great teams sitting at home, while lame to average teams get post season airtime...you can't tell me it's about big money markets...there are plenty of big money markets in the East...
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4-14-2008 @ 6:32PM
g said...
this is the seeding that should be the playoffs if you took it today, Mon. April 13 before the Mon. games:
#1 Boston
#2 Pistons
#3 Lakers
#4 Hornets
#5 Spurs
#6 Rockets
#7 Jazz
#8 Suns
#9 Magic
#10 Mavs
#11 Nuggets
#12 Warriors
#13 Cavs
#14 Wiz
and Blazers Raptors Sixers for the last two spots.
Pacers/Hawks not even in contention since the Kings would step in before either of them...and while I may have gotten a couple tie-breakers wrong, whichever two teams I may have mixed up would simply reverse places...
this would make for fair and exciting playoffs...instead, we'll watch one of the two we know will come out of the east and not watch the rest (some will watch lebronze and some players mom's will watch them in the east...and the warriors will most likely sit it out as will the Blazers...too bad for them when the Hawks may get in with a sub 500 record...pathetic really
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4-14-2008 @ 7:01PM
frank said...
Martin writes , Gasol lenght is helpful in defense but he is not Bynum ?????
You are right Gasol is not Bynum;
Gasol 2002 rookie of the year
Gasol 2006 World Champions .
Unlike KG ( 12 years with Minnie straight) Gasol ( playing with Memphis for 5 1/2 years) has been going back and forth to Europe for different tournaments in one of them the team that he played for the Lncefe in 2005 won 26 straight games giving him the title of the best European player ever his #'s 15 boards, 5 blocks, 11 dimes, 2 steals and 20 points per game so Martin you are right Bynum is NO Gasol , not Kobe not anyone in the Lakers roster in fact :
Who will stop Duncan ?? Gasol
" " Shaq ? Gasol
" " Dirk ? Gasol
" " KG ? Gasol
NOT Kobe and certainly NOT Bynum.
Another Fact, with Gasol 17 - 3 and three looses LA avenged them ; without Gasol 4-5 ; Gasol came back 5 - 0 ! Another fact martin if Gasol is HEALTHY 100% , He will take them to the promise LAND NOT Kobe and especially not Bynum and Ariza put together, Done.
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4-14-2008 @ 7:07PM
frank said...
Correction : 5-1 but still Gasol is the franchise player! and yes in the past he had some problems with his back.
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4-14-2008 @ 7:07PM
marcus said...
Ithink the lakers should go all the way. They have more wepons than any other team. They allso have the best scoreing benck.
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4-14-2008 @ 7:22PM
frank said...
In fact , Martin , where are you ??? take Gasol out and put Bynum in it ( last year) and LA will not pass the 1st round , you want it bet???
The same team last year without Gasol did NOT almost the same team this year with Gasol, minus bynum = You see how far they will go IF Gasol does not get injured , guarantee.
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4-14-2008 @ 8:44PM
frank said...
In fact , when the Lakers got Gasol and Kobe learned about it , he went to said : There is a GOD there is a GOD after all ! Go figure, martin ?
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4-14-2008 @ 8:56PM
Martin said...
frank - If you will carefully read my comment, I was talking about DEFENSE. The Lakers were playing great defense at the beginning of the season, largely because Bynum was a force in the low post and Ariza could shut down a high scoring forward. Gasol is a great offensive player but he can't handle the large centers. In fact, power forward is his more natural position and when the Lakers got Gasol, it was anticipated that he would play power forward, Odom would move to the three spot and Bynum would play center. Defense wins championships and my point was if Bynum and Ariza return for the playoffs, the Lakers defense will be far better than it now is (with Bynum blocking up the middle and Gasol guarding the power forward) and they will be a much better playoff team.
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4-14-2008 @ 9:34PM
frank said...
OK I see your point but even if Ariza and Bynum are ready (2 excellent players and both very young)they will need time to adjust to the rhythm and chemistry that is already in place and that is called timing and right now is a bit off ;
What they can do IF both healthy they can be in the bench and ala Manu get into the game ( time limited ) in and out , so give the starters time off in the game and next year full force from the get go and LA will be a powerhouse to reckon with.
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4-15-2008 @ 7:00AM
shhhdonttalkboutus said...
i love how nobody is talking about us! ;)
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4-15-2008 @ 10:12AM
KJR said...
The analysis behind this blog isn't very good. The single best indicator of a championship team is point differential. Obviously, if a team focuses on defense, they're not going to have a high average number of points on offense. If run and gun offense was the most important thing, then Denver and Golden State would be the top teams. If Boston wanted to be a 50 win team, they could score 120 a night just like the teams in the West. Boston was clearly the best team during the regular season. Detroit is tough competition. These two teams should be in the Eastern Finals. In the West, the best team the Celtics faced all year by far was Utah. They have some problems on the road, and they don't have a deep rotation. They'll probably only play seven deep; but their starting five is quite good. Maybe LA could get into the finals if they get back Bynum and he's playing well. Boston beat the Lakers easily by double digits home and home with Bynum in the lineup (but before Gasol). LA's bench shoots well against poor defensive teams, but they won't score well against Boston. Boston has an average six percent shooting advantage over their opponents on 2-point FG's, a six percent shooting advantage on 3-point FG's, a 3 percent advantage in FT's, a 3 rebound per game advantage, a 4 assist per game advantage, and a better than 10 point per game differential. Their bench is much deeper than almost any other team. They would beat most of the teams listed easily (Mavericks, Spurs, Suns, Rockets, Hornets, Magic). The only teams that will give them a tough series are Detroit and Utah (and maybe LA in 4th place).
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4-15-2008 @ 11:04AM
frank said...
To KJR I disagree and here is why:
Granted , Boston style is a Defensive style from way back from the times of Red, Russell and Bob C.; among others, in fact, never has been a run and gun style;
Enter LA the style that they have requires a big man but not just any big man but a megastar as: Wilt,Kareem and Shaq for the system to work to perfection and by the way Bynum even do a great big man and very young is not at that level at least not yes yet, in fact you mention Boston beating LA easily by doble digits with Bynum in it also remember the Spurs beating LA easily as well with Bynum in it;
Enter PAU GASOL some people so called experts do not want to recognize his greatness and a perfect fit for what LA system of playing have been for the past 25 years or longer or better yet ask Riley or Jackson ;
One more time, LA needs a big man for them to flourish in their style of playing is called " small ball" but not any big man they need The best big man available even if they have 2 Kobes their style will not work to the full extent of their potential, Done.
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4-15-2008 @ 11:13AM
Ben said...
Not only are you side-stepping playoff experience, which is very important no matter what you say(It's how the Spurs win championships out of the 3 seed) but you are totally neglecting the impact of a good, seasoned coach, the importance of home-court advantage, and potential match-up nightmares for the ten teams you have mentioned.
For example, Houston is not beating Utah in a 4 v. 5 when Utah has home-court. They are virtually unbeatable at Energy Solutions Arena. Houston also has a defensive liability at point guard, can't defend the high pick and roll of Williams and Boozer, and is going to be outsmarted by Jerry Sloan. Considering this 4 v. 5 match-up looks destined to happen, you can cross Houston off your list.
I also can't understand how you can omit Cleveland from this list, based solely on the Lebron factor. That is where you need to let statistics fall by the wayside and look back on last year's Cleveland/Detroit series.
Your turnover argument with the Celtics is ridiculous also, because the number one team on that list in terms of fewest turnovers, Toronto, has a negative turnover ratio. The Celtics have a positive one.
Interesting article, but it leaves a lot to be critiqued... Although I guess with this year's playoffs, there is no right way to forecast it.
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4-15-2008 @ 8:05PM
Kirk Kelley said...
I wonder how Boston would have fared in the West having to play 4 games against the West heavyweights not to mention maybe 4 games in 7 days against the strong West versus playing in the Weak East. It gives the back-to-back games a whole different meaning....the West has 4 or 5 teams notmaking the playoffs with better records than the East playoff bottom 4...
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4-16-2008 @ 3:08PM
Phil said...
Lakers must be a good team. Everyone on this blog is talking about them. Are they based out of LA? You know when u r hated when everyone takes an interest in you...........lolololololololol.
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4-17-2008 @ 12:15AM
Nora said...
The C'sw would have been fine out west. Look at their record againt the West--no fluke.
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5-12-2008 @ 4:53PM
wkord said...
Suns Suck - can't even hold a 17 pt lead... They think Shaq going to carry them... think again... their a BIG JOKE.....
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