I'm sure there were a lot of surprised faces in Major League clubhouses this week when word dropped that the Tampa Bay Rays signed Evan Longoria to a 9-year deal. There were probably some pissed off faces as well, belonging to players that have put in years of service, and gotten nowhere near that kind of money. A kid that had played only 6 games in his Major League career got a deal that guarantees him $17.5 million dollars over six years, and could be worth as much as $44 million in the long run.There have been plenty of people saying that this is a good move for the Rays for a couple of different reasons. First and foremost, is that in a few years this deal is going to be a bargain for Tampa, and it could save them from being in the position the Marlins found themselves in with Miguel Cabrera this off-season. These are all good points and well thought out arguments, but they seem to be ignoring one huge factor here.
The kid has only been in the big leagues for a week!
The Rays have never been a financial powerhouse in baseball, as the $44 million Longoria could make in his deal is more than the entire Tampa payroll this season (around $42 million). So personally, I think this move is a risk for the Rays considering their financial situation.
I'll say it again: The kid has only played in 8 games during his big league career.
Now I should also note that I think Longoria is going to be a very good baseball player when all is said and done, but how many sure things have we seen fizzle out in baseball? How many Todd Van Poppels have there been? Giving Longoria such a deal after such a short amount of time is the real life equivalent of asking that girl you just met five minutes ago to marry you. It's like buying a house, after only seeing a picture of it at the realty company office.
I know that Longoria has put up good numbers everywhere he's been, in high school, at Long Beach State, and in Durham, but there's a huge difference between those places and the big leagues. It's an adjustment that a lot of very talented baseball players were never able to make.
I understand that with the current economic situation in baseball, it makes a lot of sense for organizations to lock up their young talent to long-term deals before they become eligible for arbitration, but I fear this could set a dangerous precedent for baseball. One that, while it might work out for the Rays in the long run, could end up hurting a lot of teams in the future.
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Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 1)
1. Van Poppel? There is a slight difference. He is a pitcher. There have been numerous studies that have shown that if you go back and look at the top hitting prospects, the worst they become is average major leaguers. only top pitching prospects fail. and the average salary for a major leaguer now is $3m, which is more than the average salary of Longoria's deal over the guaranteed portion of the deal (6 years, $17MM).
I wouldnt recommend doing this for a top pitching prospect. but for a hitting prospect this is a very good deal.
Posted at 2:45PM on Apr 20th 2008 by cork
2. The only reason the Rays were able to sign Longoria so cheaply AND get him to agree to three option years is BECAUSE he's only been in the big leagues for six games. In one more year, he'll be closer to arbitration and proven himself -- his price will only go up.
If you're the Rays (or any small-market team), you HAVE to make deals like this. It's a great way to make your money go further -- you can't really sign real free agents. Sure, Longoria has some risk. He could flop. But that's why the organization has also signed James Shields and Carlos Pena to their own deals. They're all insurance for each other, to reduce the overall risk. If each signing is, on average, a money-maker, then making lots of those deals increase the benefit and reduces the risk.
Lastly, again regarding the six games issue, minor league stats are surprisingly projectable to the majors. And, as people don't realize enough, major league numbers aren't perfectly predictable. Pick a free agent deal from the past two off-seasons. How many would you rather have than Longoria's deal? Not many, I'm guessing.
Posted at 5:16PM on Apr 20th 2008 by Sky
3. "Giving Longoria such a deal after such a short amount of time is the real life equivalent of asking that girl you just met five minutes ago to marry you. It's like buying a house, after only seeing a picture of it at the realty company office."
These just aren't relevant comparisons, as you make clear in the following paragraph. They have had plenty of opportunities to evaluate him, and he has excelled from both a statistical and a scouting standpoint. The number of MLB games he has played just isn't that big of an issue.
Posted at 11:10PM on Apr 20th 2008 by Vegas Watch
4. LONGORIA IS A FIRST CLASS DEAL IN TAMPAS FAVOR. LOOK WHAT THEY ARE GETTING,A INFIELDER MUCH BETTER THAN LUGO,AND A GOOD HITTER TO BOOT, PLUS HE IS YOUNG, NO HISTORY OF DOPE, DRINKING, ETC.
Posted at 5:36PM on Jun 8th 2008 by wilson