The Spurs shoveled dirt all over the Suns last night, with Tony Parker pouring in the most effortless 41 points I've ever seen as San Antonio took a 3-0 lead. Everyone assumes Phoenix is done on Sunday, or maybe in Game 5 back in S.A. on Tuesday. No one's even broaching the idea the Suns can come all the way back at this point ... and after two stinkers, that point-of-view looks pretty good.
No NBA team has come back from 0-3 to win a 7-game series. You might have heard of the only MLB team to do it. Can the Suns join the club? Statistically, the task's not as impossible as you'd think. Based on pre-playoffs log5 projections I did for BallHype, the probability of Phoenix winning any home game against San Antonio is 62%. In San Antonio, Phoenix has a 42% probability of a win. They need two of each. The probability of that, based on each team's regular season performance and a standard home-court advantage modifier: 7%. That's not bad, right?
If any team could come back from 0-3, a 55-win team with a (usually) stunning offense, an explosive set of actors, and two sincere floor leaders ... that's not a bad choice. The Spurs, incredible in their own rite, won't lay down. But Phoenix can does this, however unlikely it seems.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-26-2008 @ 10:51AM
Steve said...
"Based on pre-playoffs log5 projections I did for BallHype, the probability of Phoenix winning any home game against San Antonio is 62%. In San Antonio, Phoenix has a 42% probability of a win. They need two of each."
That is the same bad data set that Phoenix was counting on before the series began. San Antonio plays better in the playoffs than in the "pre-playoffs", as any Suns fan will tell you.
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4-26-2008 @ 10:54AM
frank said...
NO ! with the Spurs with another team ? maybe.
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4-26-2008 @ 11:49AM
carl said...
I think Ziller was doing exit polls for John Kerry in 04
Suns are done..Duncans 3 killed em and of course one of the worst trades in recent memory..somewhere Shawn Marion is laughing
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4-26-2008 @ 12:03PM
Mike Lisboa said...
I'm actually hoping it's the Pedro Martinez The-Yankees-Are-My-Daddy Face. That turned out all right now, didn't it?
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4-26-2008 @ 2:36PM
Colonel D. Williams (Ret.) said...
You sure all palsy-walsy with Phoenix. You could at least try to be a little more discreet about your Phoenixfilia...like Marc Stein. Nevermind, Stein is probably crying in mirror right now because little Stevie let him down.
I'm not sure if Phoenix could be any more demoralized and tired than they are right now. There is no leader, no identity, in other words, no chance.
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