Nick Johnson might be the real-world equivalent of Charlie Brown. The Washington Nationals first baseman missed large swaths of the 2003 and 2004 season with injuries and broke his leg in September of 2006. That injury sidelined him for all of last season leaving a once-promising hitter as a 29-year old desperate to make up for lost time. Things looked like they were looking up for Johnson in Spring Training when he won the starting job. On the surface, it would seem like he's not going to keep it for long. He's hitting just .216 as of this morning but a deeper look suggests Johnson is, again, being stymied by luck.
When Johnson puts the ball in play, 28% of the time he hits line drives. 74% of the time line drives become hits so Johnson should have a high batting average on balls in play. It's just .241, though, which is why Johnson's scuffling in Mendoza line territory. Based on that profile, Fangraphs computed Johnson's projected OPS (PrOPS) and came up with a line of .336/.493/.549.
PrOPS thinks Johnson's been something like the 5th best hitter in the National League in April, putting him just behind some guys named Burrell, Utley, Pujols, and the aforementioned Chipper Jones.If his performance holds up and, for once, luck breaks his way, Johnson should start posting some excellent numbers as the season progresses. Of course, given his history, he'll probably break his thumb just as he starts heating up.
ADVERTISEMENT
_thumbnail.jpg "NASCAR Cowboy Hats")
