The Indianapolis Colts have signed free agent running back Dominic Rhodes, bringing him back in the fold a year after he left for the Raiders.
Rhodes won't beat out Joseph Addai for the starting job, but there's a widespread assumption that Rhodes will be an upgrade over Addai's 2007 backup, Kenton Keith. Here's what Mike Chappell writes in the Indianapolis Star:
Keith was erratic and dropped some key passes, and generally wasn't the all-around threat Rhodes had been.But looking at the stats, that really just isn't true. Keith averaged 4.4 yards a carry in 2007; Rhodes averaged 3.4 yards a carry in 2006.
It is true that the Colts got more use out of Rhodes in the passing game than they did out of Keith -- caught 13 passes for 77 yards in 2007; Rhodes caught 36 passes for 251 yards in 2006. But that had more to do with Rhodes having more passes thrown his way.
The advanced stats at Football Outsiders for 2007 say that on a per-pass basis, Keith was basically an average receiver; in 2006 Rhodes was a below average receiver. Keith may have "dropped some key passes," but overall he was at least as effective catching the ball as Rhodes.
The bottom line is that based on their production on the field, there's every reason to believe that Keith is a better player than Rhodes. Which makes it baffling that a smart team like the Colts appears ready to give Rhodes Keith's job.
ADVERTISEMENT
_thumbnail.jpg "NASCAR Cowboy Hats")
Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 1)
1. I'm pretty sure that the FO stats don't penalize him appropriately for tipping dumpoff passes into the air causing multiple interceptions.
Kenton Keith run extremely well last year. He led the league in success rate (his success rate was higher than his catch rate, that's rare). I'd be fine with the Colts carrying 4 backs this season or cutting Rhodes if he isn't still in 2006 form. His contract is one year for the league minimum so the Colts don't have much invested in him.
Posted at 8:55AM on May 8th 2008 by Joe
2. Keith ran very well, not run
Posted at 8:57AM on May 8th 2008 by Joe
3. They are not ready to hand Rhodes the job over Keith. Rhodes signed a one year league minimum deal that makes it easy for the team to cut him. Only 2 RB's are safely on the roster in Indy. Addai and Hart. Rhodes and Keith are playing for the same spot.
Posted at 3:38PM on May 8th 2008 by edge3281
4. I'm sorry but while it's true that Keith ran better than Dom, that is only part of the picture. First, when Rhodes was placed in the backup role his performance improved well beyond what Keith did as the backup. Secondly, the reason Keith didn't catch many passes was because they didn't throw to him. Why didn't they throw to him? Because he can't catch the ball. Saying, "well he didn't have many attempts so we'll say he was at least as effective as Rhodes" ignores the fact that there was a a good reason he didn't get many receiving attempts. I love your work MDS, but this analysis doesn't cut it. Keith can't catch the ball, and a back that can't catch can't play in the Colts O.
Posted at 9:17PM on May 8th 2008 by DZ