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After what seems like forever, the NHL gets back on the ice tonight with the start of the Western Conference Finals tonight in Detroit as the Red Wings host the Dallas Stars. The Eastern Conference Final gets in gear tomorrow night for the battle of Pensylvania as the Penguins host the Flyers in Pittsburgh.
I'm not sure anyone is surprised that Detroit and Pittsburgh made it this far, though seeing Dallas and Philadelphia still alive this late in the game has to count as something of a shocker. As you'll see from our panel, while the discussion was nearly unanimous regarding predictions for both series, there were plenty of folks who were hedging their bets.
Eric McErlain: Let's kick it off out West where Dallas is the underdog -- just like their other 2 series -- against Detroit. The Wings have had plenty of time off after polishing off a denuded Colorado team, while it's safe to say that Dallas, despite playing almost two games on Sunday night, are probably going to be well rested going into Thursday night's game at Detroit. The Stars have gotten in done for two rounds now thanks to responsible play in all zones, a solid power play and superior netminding from Marty Turco. After watching them beat Anaheim and San Jose, it's hard to dismiss them as some sort of Spring fluke.
And Detroit, well, they're still Detroit. Still loaded up front and still stocked with plenty of role players who all seem to understand their roles rather precisely. The only potential weakness I see is with Chris Osgood, but I seem to recall plenty of people doubting him back in 1998. Granted, that's 10 years ago, but his numbers this year were plenty respectable, and when you're playing behind the rest of that team, it isn't like you have to make up for a lot of mistakes -- not with Nick Lidstrom running the defense and putting in almost 26 minutes per night.
Earl Sleek: I'm torn on this one. On the one hand, I've made a decision to stop being surprised by Dallas' success. I had them as a slight underdog to Anaheim and a serious underdog to San Jose, but it's made me look silly on both counts. On the other hand, I don't think there's any way that Dallas is taking the first two games in Detroit like they did in the first two rounds, and it will be interesting to see what happens if Dallas trails in the series.
On a game-within-the-game level, I'm really interested to see how the Red Wings attack the Stars' blueline. Both the Ducks and Sharks struggled with the ability to dump and retrieve the puck, as they had to deal with the ever-roving Turco as well as Dallas' ability to surround the puck and intercept passes. I don't think the Wings are as much a dump and chase team as the California squads, but the Stars will certainly be trying to force that as much as possible.
I'm thinking that special teams are a toss-up, or at least I'm not creative enough to decide who gets the advantage. Stars' penalty killing has been generally excellent, and their power play has been absolutely clutch, but the Red Wings certainly aren't any slouches.
In any case, I think this should be a solid series. Both teams have capable scorers throughout their top three lines, and both can counterattack quickly and effectively. I think Dallas' defense will have their hands full with Zetterberg and Datsyuk, who have more flash than any twosome on either Anaheim or San Jose, but I also think Detroit's going to have some issues with Morrow and Ribiero, who frankly has impressed the heck out of me through two rounds.
I think in the end the Red Wings take it, but if Dallas takes one of the first two games, it's going to be a close one. If Detroit has the home sweep, though, they're probably set. By my eye, the Stars have played better hockey these playoffs on the road than at home.
Bruce Ciskie: The key to this series is Dallas' ability to get pucks to the net. Detroit's defense is a bit on the, well, old side. They're experienced and playing generally awesome hockey right now, but they're not without their flaws (see: "Lilja, Andreas").The Stars have to find ways to pressure Osgood and make him stop plenty of shots. Colorado couldn't consistently do this, and neither could Nashville.
The way to beat the Wings is to wear them down. That doesn't mean that you hit them into oblivion, because I'm not convinced an overly physical tone will work. I do think you have to make Detroit's defensemen skate. Force them to play in their zone, and you can get them to make mistakes.
Matt Saler: I'll be interested to see what the Stars do against a team that has it all together. I don't want to take anything away from them, but they beat the Ducks and Sharks when those teams weren't quite playing to their potential. The Wings were firing on all cylinders in the second round and there's no reason to believe they won't be in the third.
Detroit's forward depth will be tested by Ribeiro, Morrow, Richards, and Modano, but I think they should be in a good position to shut them down. To counter the Stars attack, they have two deserving Selke candidates that can be split up if necessary and a solid crop of defense-oriented forwards. Before Johan Franzen became a goal scoring machine, the team was working on molding him into a shutdown forward able to handle tasks like silencing Joe Thornton. Kris Draper, Dan Cleary, and Dallas Drake all have big bodies and are strong in their own end.
Bruce is definitely right about the Stars' need to pin the Wings in their own end. That was nearly Detroit's downfall in the first round as the Predators would put up two minute-long pressure shifts and wear the team out. They didn't have the same problem with Colorado, but whether that was a product of the Avs' injuries or the Wings having better defensive zone puck management, I can't be certain. I'd like to think it was the latter. The Wings will need to put on a puck possession clinic this round and it starts in their own end.
The Wings will have to be stellar in the breakout and transition games against Dallas. They'll need to get the puck up ice before the Stars can adjust and gain the zone without resorting to dump-and-chase hockey. The Stars' defense will make it difficult to cross the blueline on your average carry-in. If Detroit's puck moving defensemen can't get passes out to the forwards and spring them into the zone, they'll have a tough time getting going offensively.
The Predators showed that the Wings have the potential for composure problems when they scored so many of their goals in sequence. Detroit didn't let Colorado's goals rattle them as much, but the Stars would be smart to come out hard after they score.
James Mirtle: If I'm the Stars, my biggest worry is just how green the defence is there. Philippe Boucher's injured, Sergei Zubov missed a few months and doesn't quite look right, and the three of Nick Grossman, Mark Fistric and Matt Niskanen are going to play in this series.
A 23-year-old and two 21-year-olds on the blueline against the Red Wings? That's tough.
As Matt alluded to, the Stars' greatest asset is that three-shot at center (Ribeiro, Richards, Modano) which will create problems for every team. The Wings have problems of their own down the defensive depth chart, and that lack of depth could hurt either team.
Earl Sleek: Strangely, the Dallas defenseman I'm the most worried for is Matty Norstrom. I thought the youth on the blueline would be a problem for Dallas, but they seem to fit into the structure very well, especially guys like Trevor Daley. Norstrom was fine also, but that was largely against large bodies like Getzlaf and Thornton. If he draws the Zetterberg-Datsyuk line, I'm not sure Norstrom's assets will be terribly useful, and his weaknesses (mainly footspeed) could get exposed.
We'll see, but I think guys like Grossman and Fistric have looked very serviceable, and despite not having Zubov for round one or Boucher for round two, the Stars' defense didn't have too much trouble against the Ducks or Sharks. As has been pointed out, though, Anaheim and San Jose were the two worst offensive teams in the western bracket, so it definitely will be a tougher test.
Eric McErlain: All very interesting. One point nobody mentioned: The leading scorer among defensemen for this playoff -- Stephane Robidas of Dallas.
Ok, let's shift back to the East. As J.P. noted ahead of the entire hockey world, it's the Battle of Pennsylvania. Yes, Pittsburgh seems stacked beyond belief, and Marc-Andre Fleury seems to finally be fulfilling his promise as a top draft pick in net. But there's something about this Philly team I can't seem to shake. They always hang around and it seems like there's just no quit in them. As I've written before, the Philly Power Play is absolutely suffocating, their defense seems well balanced between speed, strength and grit and Martin Biron made all the saves he's had to since Game Seven against the Caps.
Does this one go to the distance?
James Mirtle: I'm going to pick it to.
They key for the Flyers is going to be getting a split in Pittsburgh. Getting into an 0-2 hole against a team with that much firepower, like the Rangers did, is too dangerous, and leaves you needing to win four of five to win the series.
But if things go back to Philadelphia at 1-1 or even 2-0 for the Flyers, that's where they want them. They've been tough to beat at home.
Biron's going to have to keep being terrific, too.
Bruce Ciskie: Can Pittsburgh go in the tough areas more consistently than Montreal did? If so, they have a real shot to crack the code of Biron. The Penguins strike me as being a little hungrier than Montreal looked, but how much of that was Philadelphia just sapping the will out of the Habs?
I want to see how Philadelphia's offense handles a goaltender who won't give them gaggles of soft goals.
Patrick Lackey: I think James is absolutely right about the first two games of the series. The Rangers definitely outplayed the Penguins for most of games 3-5 in their series, but it didn't matter because of the lead the Penguins had built up.
Honestly, I think this is going to be a really close series. Both teams are playing very well, both power plays should test the opposing goalie in ways that they haven't really been tested yet, and there's a lot of offensive skill and physicality on both sides.
I think the key questions that we should have answered early in the series are probably 1.) Is Philly's offensive attack really that good or was Carey Price simply that bad? and 2.) Is the Penguins penalty kill really that good or was New York's power play just that bad? In both cases, the answer is probably a bit of a compromise between the choices, but figuring out what applies from the early rounds and what was a factor of the opponents should go a long ways towards figuring out what kind of series this will be.
Kevin Schultz: I'm done picking against Dallas. I'm done picking against Philly as well as Osgood. All of them have made me look silly. As Mirtle said, home splits are going to be big in both series. Two wins in hand going back to either Dallas or Philly is going to be a killer obstacle for those teams.
Also a big key to both series: goaltending. All three Vezina finalists (Nabby, Brodeur, Lundqvist) have now been eliminated. Depending on who you ask, all four remaining keepers have serious doubts about them. All of these guys have question marks be it poor past experiences, lack of expericence or, in Ozzy's case, a whole bunch of doubters. I saw Osgood play a couple years on Long Island and the guy goes through spurts where he's the best in the league and spurts that make you want to strangle him. I think he's found his form and probably won't let up the rest of the way. Even if he does, he's got that Detroit D in front of him.
I'm taking Detroit and Pitt, but both series will likely go long. I'm also really curious to see how Pittsburgh matches up against the physical play of the Flyers. The physical play the Rangers thew at the Pens in Game Four might now be turned into an entire series of that type of play against Philly. Pens might be in a bit of trouble if that happens.
Eric McErlain: Predictions -- Who wins and in how many games?
Bruce Ciskie: I'm taking Detroit in seven and Pittsburgh in six. I don't feel awfully confident about either of those predictions.
James Mirtle: I hate to follow the crowd, but that's what I've got too. Detroit in six, Pittsburgh in seven.
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see one of the Stars or Flyers get in there, but I just can't figure out which.
Jon "J.P." Press: Stars in 7. Pens in 5.
Patrick Lackey: Pens in six, Stars in seven.
Like everyone else, I don't feel terribly sure about either of these picks. What I am sure of is Rule #1 of sports: whenever there's a final matchup that the media and public want to see and start talking up before the matchup is set, someone screws it up.
Jes Gölbez: Pens in 6 and Wings in 5.
Earl Sleek: Crosby in 6, Zetterberg in 6. Let the NHL have its dream.
Matt Saler: Wings in six, Pens in seven.
Patrick Lackey: Has anyone picked the Flyers? That makes me nervous.
Kevin Schultz: Gonna stick with what I got on BMR ... Pens and Wings in 7.
Eric McErlain: I'll close it out with Wings in six and Pens in Six, though like many of the others, I'd not exactly be surprised at the opposite outcome.
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