If you are in a single season fantasy league, there is absolutely zero reason you should not be trying to sell high on Edinson Volquez right now. Okay, actually, there are actually a few reasons why you don't want to move him. His sparkling ERA (1.12), coupled with his six wins (tied for second in the bigs) and 57 K's in 48 innings have made him a valuable fantasy commodity.But, as is often the case, things are not all that they seem. Reality tells us that there are several factors working against Volquez' current success, and that makes him a superb sell high option.
First, his stats. A 1.12 ERA and a 10.61 K/9 ratio are wonderful. But there are some other mitigating factors to those numbers. His WHIP (1.26) is actually higher than his ERA. That's not obscenely shocking, but it does indicate some luck. As does his ERA when compared to his 4.84 BB/9.
Both of those numbers tell us that he is frequently allowing baserunners, but not letting them score. And that checks out perfectly with his 90.8 strand rate, 20% above the big league norm. In other words, some of these guys getting on base are going to start scoring more frequently.
Factor in his home park/bandstand alongside his 2.8% HR/FB ratio, and it becomes clear that more balls will be leaving the park soon as well. And finally, he is a rookie. Even with Dusty Baker managing -- and that might actually make it worse -- he is going to get tired later in the season and/or reach a preset innings ceiling, greatly limiting his value, especially in H2H leagues.
Justin Verlander lost is seventh game on Wednesday. The chances of him going 4-24 on the season are about as high as Volquez going 24-4. If it's a hitter you're looking for, Cincy teammate Adam Dunn is a nice possibility, given is stinkjob to start the season. Or maybe Corey Hart, with only one tater on the year thus far. The other owner is going to know that you're trying to sell Volquez high, but I'd be willing to bet that anyone owning those player is at least willing to listen to a straight up swap.
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Reader Comments ( Page 1 of 1)
1. You're going to bring up Volquez--a highly touted rookie who is performing up to his ceiling--and not even mention Cliff Lee? Lee, a guy with 4 or 5 years of marginal success with one great year (in terms of win totals, which if you have ever heard of matt cain is clearly not an indicator of how good you are), playing out of his f'ing mind right now? I'd be trying to trade Lee 10x faster than Volquez. Ever heard of Francisco Liriano? His breakout year did not include that inevitable ERA inflation slump. Since both guys are clearly pitching at rates that you rarely see, I'd rather keep the high-ceiling prospect who has hasn't shown average stuff than a guy who has plenty of years of average stuff and a career ERA well over 4.
Posted at 11:54AM on May 15th 2008 by Colin
2. Been saying it for weeks, brother.
http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2008/04/29/cliff-lee-is-out-of-over-his-head/
Posted at 12:30PM on May 15th 2008 by Will Brinson
3. There it is. My apologies, Will.
Posted at 12:51PM on May 15th 2008 by Colin
4. Ha. No worries at all. I was actually debating throwing a short paragraph onto the end of this that said something like "Cliff Lee -- still dealing, still selling."
Posted at 1:46PM on May 15th 2008 by Will Brinson
5. hey b-stone, really enjoying the blog. I didn't know where to post this comment, but I have an idea for a new column. "To stash or not to stash: the Ramón Vázquez dilemma" (see his yahoo player page) in which you talk about injured,demoted or underachieving players and whether or not they're worth your dl spot or roster space for the second half. Some targets could be rich hill, liriano, andruw jones, clay buchholz, prior, jason schmidt, carpenter, etc...
just a thought...
Posted at 4:50PM on May 15th 2008 by d-rot
6. Good call, d-rot, and thanks, of course, for reading. I'll absolutely get to work on something of the nature. Holler at fantasyfanhouse@gmail.com if you've got any more ideas or suggestions. Dropping something in the comments works just as well too, if that's easier.
Posted at 5:03PM on May 15th 2008 by Will Brinson