FanHouse

One of the more intriguing fights on the UFC 86 undercard is the lightweight bout between Tyson Griffin and Marcus Aurelio. When I first saw that they were fighting, I thought it seemed like a fairly competitive bout, and I was very surprised to see that Vegas installed Griffin as a huge favorite.

FightMatrix.com was surprised, too. The innovative Fight Matrix ratings have the two fighters essentially equal, with Aurelio actually very slightly ahead. So why is Griffin a -350 favorite?

I guess it's because Griffin's style seems like it matches up well with Aurelio's style, and because Griffin is better known to American fans. But Aurelio is coming off back-to-back impressive showings, beating Ryan Roberts with a first-round armbar and Luke Caudillo with a first-round TKO. Before that he was on a losing streak, but split-decision losses to Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi are nothing to be ashamed of.

All things considered, I'd give Griffin a slightly better than 50-50 chance of winning Saturday night. But with the odds he's getting, my money would be on Aurelio.