The following guest post was written by Rami Genauer, contributor at FightMetric.FightMetric tracked every second of UFC 86's main event fight between Forrest Griffin and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. How did the new UFC light-heavyweight champ stack up in this bout? We've pored over the numbers to make sense of this extremely close battle. You can check out the full stats from the fight here, but below are the numbers that matter:
First Round: One
The number of knockdowns in the round.
Make no mistake, it is certainly possible to win a round in which your opponent has knocked you down ... but it's hard. You really have to do a lot of damage to counteract the knockdown, which is the single-largest contributor to fight endings in MMA. Griffin led the round for all but the last 90 seconds. But the minimal effectiveness of those three-and-a-half minutes pales in comparison to Rampage's knockdown and those last 90 seconds, which represented the closest either fighter ever came to ending the fight. The round simply has to go to Rampage. Pity that only one of the judges (Nelson Hamilton) felt the same way.
Second Round: 112-0
The effectiveness scores for the round, in favor of Griffin.
It is extremely rare to see a fighter completely shut-out in a round. It is unheard of to see it in a championship bout. Here was the round in a nutshell: Forrest lands two leg kicks, Rampage attempts a takedown, Forrest locks on a guillotine and wrestles the fight to the ground. Forrest passes to half, passes to side, passes to mount and stays there for the remainder of the round throwing whatever shots he can manage. Rampage did not even attempt a strike throughout the entire round and never managed to improve his position.
The judging criteria are vague enough that no one quite knows when a 10-8 round should be scored. Despite this domination, only one judge (Hamilton, again) called the round 10-8. The FightMetric system has no such misgivings and follows hard and fast mathematical rules. When a fighter scores more than 100 points and has a score that's at least six times his opponent's score, it's a 10-8 round.
Third Round: 14-8The total number of strikes in the round, in favor of Griffin.
This was, by far, the closest round and the hardest to call. It helps to parse out the numbers above for some context. Ten of Griffin's 14 landed strikes were to Rampage's legs, and seven of those 10 leg kicks were short, front-leg flicks, not the knee-buckling power shots that hobbled Rampage in the second round. By contrast, all eight of Rampage's strikes were to Griffin's body or head and all of them were hard.
So judging this round comes down to the question of what you value more: Griffin's higher volume of strikes and general control of the pace or Rampage's more effective shots and ability to counter. While close, FightMetric values head and body shots more than strikes to legs, because it's the head and body shots that end a higher percentage of fights (we call them HiPer Strikes). Apparently, none of the three judges agreed.
Fourth Round: Three
The number of judges that gave this round to Rampage.
This was the only round in which there was a consensus that Rampage won. I suppose the evidence was hard to ignore. Rampage outstruck Griffin 13-1 in terms of HiPer Strikes and 36-2 in total strikes. Griffin locked on a triangle that looked like it might have been trouble, but Rampage was able to slam his way out of it. This may be the only round that people seem able to agree on.
Fifth Round: 84-40
The number of strikes attempted in the round, in favor of Griffin.
Coming into the round, both fighters must have known that it was close, but it was Griffin who outworked Rampage in the round, throwing more than twice as many strikes. Griffin also landed more, outstriking Rampage 22-12 and 13-11 in the HiPer Strike category.
The round was close, but this was where Forrest proved his mettle. He's self-deprecating and will say he won because he's tough and doesn't quit. Don't be fooled. He outstruck Rampage when it mattered the most and it wasn't all because of heart. Forrest has serious talent.
Some Final Numbers
47-47
The round scoring according to the FightMetric system. For what it's worth (which is not very much), the system scores this fight a draw, with Rampage winning rounds one, three, and four, and Forrest winning round five and winning round two by a score of 10-8.
ZeroThe number of times Rampage was able to pass Griffin's guard. Can we please start giving Forrest credit for having an excellent defensive guard? Despite spending a significant amount of time on his back against each, neither Rampage, nor Shogun Rua, nor Tito Ortiz could advance anywhere on the ground.
35
The total number of leg kicks landed by Griffin. When MMA historians look back, I wonder if they'll see the Keith Jardine vs. Chuck Liddell fight as one of the sport's turning points. Forrest took a page out of the Jardine playbook and threw kick after kick to the legs and body. And for the second time, the strategy has paid dividends in granting a victory to the fighter that everyone considered the weaker striker coming into the matchup.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-07-2008 @ 9:10AM
bucktownskinsfan said...
I don't know why guys haven't learned that lesson yet. Go back to Pete Spratt v. Robbie Lawler in UFC 42. Lawler quit due to Spratt's vicious leg kicks... he could barely limp out of the ring.
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7-07-2008 @ 1:09PM
BrendanEff said...
ESPN sometimes plays old K-1 or Strikeforce events late night, and a lot of the matches they show illustrate the power of the leg kick against a better striker/stronger fighter. If you take away someone's front leg, you have taken away so much of their power. Rampage's leg injury was the most significant event of the fight, IMO.
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7-07-2008 @ 1:10PM
evan said...
Go even further back to UFC 7 when there were no weight classes.
Marco Ruas (6'1, 200lb) defeated Paul Varelans (6'8, 330lb) by chopping down a huge tree. Varelans was a trap fighter and Ruas devastated his left leg the entire night, turning into hamburger meat. Eventually, the big man couldn't even maintain standing up and went down to a knee and got blasted for his trouble.
Leg kicks are like foot stomps and elbows/knees on the ground. Really obvious to those of us watching, amazingly tough for most fighters to employ.
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7-07-2008 @ 1:10PM
Steve Derbyshire said...
Striking is not the only aspect of this ever evolving sport. This fight proved that having a good plan and the talent to achieve your goals does work. (If your Forrest Griffin).
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7-07-2008 @ 1:23PM
claytor said...
This fight was a total farce, and only solidifies the fact that Dana White has held a grudge towards Pride fighters for years.
Check out the track record....CroCop should clearly be fighting in a light heavyweight class, but was fighting men taller and bigger.
Wanderleis first opponent was Liddell.
Hendersons had to fight two supreme fighters, back to back. Both of them former Pride fighters.
And now Jackson got jobbed.
To say that legkicks are that awesome is ridiculous. The ratio of fightstoppage by leg kicks is slim to none, its more of a range tool, or a counterstrike, not a truly effective offensive weapon.
Griffin hardly fought, instead, feeling out Jackson with those 35 legkicks, rarely accompanying them with combination strikes.
Jackson on the other hand visibly wobbled Griffin at least six times, took him down more than Griffin returned, and despite not being given credit as the champion (keyword there: champion), fought just as well in a counter style based attack, but hey, countering is nowhere near as cool as a gimpy leg kick from nearly four feet away.
Seriously, people, this fight was judged unaninmous, you cant honestly believe Jackson wasnt fighting a viable fight, and if those legkicks were that awesome, how come Jackson managed to continue the fight for almost a good 20 minutes through 3 and a half rounds after that monster uber totally awesome legkick, man!
Griffin even admitted that after the one legkick that helped him win round 2, he found it harder to continue the trend, with the ability to land it effectively "elusive", in his own words.
The telltale sign of who won the fight? Look at Griffins face. Then look at Jacksons. Sad that some are enamored with quantity over quality.
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7-07-2008 @ 4:25PM
Slim said...
Easy with the conspiracy theories claytor.
What does Dana White have to gain from fixing the fights? He makes Liddel/Silva because that's what people wanted to see, and every fight fan I know said it was one of the best fights they have ever seen.
Hendo fought the two best at two weight classes because he held belts in both weight classes. This unified the titles for the company, now instead of Pride LHW and UFC LHW, there is just LHW.
I think the fight was really close, and I could see how people are upset if they are a big Rampage fan, but I would think Rampage would be easier to market to the "casual" fan than would Forrest. From a business stand point (which is what Dana's about) it makes no sense to "fix" matches, just like the NBA has shown.
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7-07-2008 @ 6:50PM
joe said...
buckstown I'll go you one better. Go watch what happened when Marco Ruas fought Paul Varlens> Leg kicks(and body kicks) have been an important part of MMA long before "the turning point" in Ledell/Jardine
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7-07-2008 @ 7:33PM
mihimahi said...
I'm going to agree with Slim.
Lets just say it was a fun fight to watch. Damn, if someone can say that leg kicks are not offensive weapons, maybe they haven't been kicked by a fighter who knows how to execute one correctly. Defensive? LOL.
I am actually not steaming mad about paying $45 for a UFC fight. Finally!
Hard to imagine Dana White setting up Jackson for a fall. LOL. Jackson looked to be Dana's new "face" for his UFC.
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7-07-2008 @ 9:32PM
Gregg Bates said...
Jackson was robbed, although it was a relatively close fight. I hope the UFC doesn't go the same way that professional has gone where decisions seem to be decided before the fight even begins.
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7-07-2008 @ 9:44PM
that1kid707 said...
that fight was bullsh-t griffin won the second round there's no way in hell he won that fight.
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7-07-2008 @ 10:30PM
P.J. said...
I'm glad Jackson lost...he was getting too arrogant.
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7-08-2008 @ 12:00AM
claytor said...
Good point, Slim, but then again, neither Silva or Hendo had tune up matches, seeing as how they were both coming off a long layoff, and not used to being in the octogan for even longer, you know?
The unification/absorbtion, whatever you wish to call it of Hendos titles, kinda cemented Whites victory over Pride.
Regardless, that fight was rigged, i mean...unaninmous??? Thats got to be a joke, right?
Hands down, the judges claim the Griffin straight owned Jackson, even round one? Did Griffin ever really look like he was in control? Or merely keeping Jackson at bay, even on a bad leg? The guy admitted his kicks were pretty ineffective for most of the fight after the second round, and he wasnt very dominant in any of the following rounds, again with Jackson on a BAD leg.
Unanimous. Think about it.
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7-08-2008 @ 2:39AM
mike said...
I said the same thing, that it was a draw, Griffin won 49-46? Meaning he won four out of five rounds? I like both fighters, but there is no way he won 4 out of 5 rounds, I gave him 2.5 and Jackson 2.5. I dont see how they gave Forest 4 rounds especially the first round, I thought that was hands down Jackson's round.
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7-08-2008 @ 5:40AM
T said...
I have lost much respect for the UFC staging this crap. This looked more to be like a sparring match then a fight! Who would have thought Griffin would get the decision... its really only how he has won in the past. I hope to see a rematch quickly. I believe Jackson deserved the fight. Thats all i have to say.
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7-08-2008 @ 12:26PM
john w. said...
Claytor is right....Rampage got robbed! How do a couple of legs kicks justify taking the belt from the champ. Forrest was beat up. That decision was B.S.
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7-09-2008 @ 1:04PM
Dave said...
Rampage is the money maker so DW is not fixing the fight...PERIOD. DW and the UFC is all about money as it should be not the petty Tito and Pride stuff.
By the way...anyone saying the leg kick isn't a powerful strike has not been hobbled by one.
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7-09-2008 @ 3:36PM
ufc#1fan said...
I am very dissapointed in the judging between rampage and forrest i like both fighters and dont have a favorite i was expecting a good brawl but bottom line i saw a robbery that look something familiar in a boxing match i dont know if it was fixed or rampage is not as marketible as forrest an thats why but in a full contact sport when fighters train their bodies to be weapons they should not loose fights in any other way than defeat from another fighter dana white is smart an im sure he knows all mma fans are talking about ufc 86 and the rampage robbery he is going to do something to fix this problem because if it isnt alot of us ufc fans are gonna find another brand because we watch mma to excape the politics of boxing and get back to the best man wins and not who the fans like most anyone with brains an is not bias will say point blank 1st round rampage 2nd round forrest 3rd round rampage 4th round rampage 5th round either way but give it to forrest because he connect more on the fight metric and he was more aggresive but in the end 3 rounds to 2 rampage wins as the great Nature Boy Rick Flair says to be the man you have to beat the man and forrest didnt..... oh yeah be very afraid heavyweights frank mir got lucky with a bogus breakup when he was getting pounded by brock lesnar he was only hit in the back of the head cause frank moved his head in to hide his face from getting pounded ive seen countless fights that the back of the head gets hit an they do not get broken up like frank and brock but warned while they are striking so im not the only one that noticed that but brock still was cocky and unexperienced in leaving his leg out there for a great submission expert like frank but i bet Brock Lesnar is going to be a dominate heavyweight champion in ufc if we can survive the rampage screwing because alot of fans are boycotting the next couple of events because of the rampage screwing that happened a week after a big boxing screw over of humberto soto bad form joel cortez bad form
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7-12-2008 @ 2:44PM
Boski Woski said...
To say Forest leg kicks won him the fight is ridiculous!Griffin's leg kicks were effective, only in the 2nd rd. But after that Jackson was mostly in control of the fight. Rampage managed to land devasting punches to Forest's face, that's why u see Forest with a huge cut under his eyebrow. And besides, if a championship fight is close the champion gets the benefit of the doubt.So coming from a business man's point of view, if the desicion go to Rampage,It would be boring.So u make more money off the comeback, to make the audience want to see more a part 2(revenge is always a good seller)So yes, the fight was fixed.
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7-12-2008 @ 7:21PM
sharkhunter said...
I didn't even see the fight yet and from what I've seen in the post interviews it looks like forrest got destroyed. It looked like his eye lid was hanging off. Either way they need to do it again. Rampage deserves it. I think everyone has to at least respect Griffen now though.
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