FanHouse - Fantasy Football

Stash Him? Fatolo Still Valuable

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-16T10:44:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football, MLB Bust a Move, Fantasy MLB, MLB Waiver Wire

Getting the jump on injured, rehabbing or struggling players can help win your fantasy leagues. Stash tells you what your play is for these guys.

For those late to the party, the Red Sox signed someone in the off-season who was just two years removed from winning a freaking Cy Young. Turning 35 late next week, he's not ancient by any stretch. He is, however, fat.

Yep, good ol' Bartolo Colon still checks in at 250 while not even standing six feet tall ... but he's no ordinary fat man. He can throw a baseball really hard.

The signing made sense for the Red Sox, with Curt Schilling's injury woes and the unpredictability of youngster Clay Buchholz. Now Buchholz is on the DL with a broken fingernail (I'm sure he's quite chagrined to be sidelined with that -- but fingers matter to pitchers), and the Sox are going to need a replacement for the short-term beginning Tuesday.

Meanwhile Colon has been studly in Triple-A. He entered Thursday with a 1.12 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in eight innings. The seven-to-one K/BB looked enticing as well.

Thursday, the numbers only got better.

I'll let PawSox explain:

Bartolo Colon was magnificent, giving up just one hit in six innings. Colon needed just 64 pitches to get through the outing. The 2005 Cy Young winner fanned 4 and didn't walk anyone.

That takes Fat Bart's ERA down to 0.64 in and his WHIP to an absurd 0.50. With the Red Sox needing the aforementioned replacement starter now is the perfect time to add the former elite pitcher to any bench that has reasonable space (meaning you cut bait on someone like Jim Edmonds, but not Rafeal Furcal).

Now ...

I don't really think he's going to be of much help to your actual team for a bit if at all. He's still only able to throw 64 pitches (otherwise they would have run him out there for another inning the way he was dealing). Realistically, the Red Sox can't get him deep in a game with that low a pitching allowance. Maybe next time he can stretch to 80, and I still don't think that's good enough to really be worth a roster spot in many fantasy leagues.

When he does get the call, be ready to shop him immediately. If you have to hold him, hopefully he starts off quickly. His name has value, and it doesn't hurt that he's playing for the Red Sox.

Basically what I'm saying is that I like your chances of getting a good return for the Cy Young award winning Bartolo who now throws for the best team in the AL ... and I like those chances much more than actually getting a good fantasy season out of the washed up quasi-old fat-man, no matter what his uniform says. He'll be done quite quickly.

VERDICT:

Stash him now, sit on him (better than him sitting on you, right?) until he's recalled, and then deal him before he hurts you. Just ask his owners circa 2006 and 2007. He's still the same cat. He'll hurt again.

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Value Machine: Lackeying a Pitcher?

Will Brinson — 2008-05-16T00:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football, MLB Value Machine, Fantasy MLB

John Lackey, SP, LAA -- The would-be Cy Young candidate returned for the first time this season on Wednesday, throwing 99 pitches over seven innings, while allowing six hits, one earned run and one walk. He also struck out four. Good luck getting your hands on him if you don't have him already. He's a legit fantasy ace though, so if you can somehow still get him cheaper than normal market value, it's best to hustle up and do so.

Justin Duchscherer, SP/RP, OAK -- He only qualifies as a reliever for fantasy purposes, and with the way he's pitched in the starting role, it is hard to imagine him going back to the pen. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in anyone game this year or walked more than two in one game and really just been a victim of no offense behind him. A very nice buy when you look at his 2.20 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and his 24:7 K:BB ratio against his 3-2 record.

Jason Isringhausen, RP, STL -- Goodnight, Irene. Izzy has been embarrassingly bad, to the point he begged out of the closer role. Ryan Franklin appears to be doing a pretty, pretty good job closing, which plays against Izzy's chances at regaining his gig, but he is Tony LaRussa's guy. That alone makes him a decent buy low if you have bench spots and don't have to get punished by him being in your starting lineup.

Aaron Laffey, SP, CLE -- Talk about doing quiet work, son. Laffey has allowed just four earned in three starts this season while posting a 2.0 K:BB ratio. And those four earned came in one inning -- the sixth -- after he had shut the Yankees down for the first five run throughs. He's since shut down KC, Toronto and Oakland in succession, having now posted 21 consecutive scoreless innings. A moderate buy, but definitely worth a pickup if he's available.

Jeremy Bonderman, SP, DET -- Oy vey. Bondo has become what a friend of mine calls a "nibbler". A 4.80 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP are both pretty unstomachable, especially the latter. But even worse is that he has walked more batters than he has struck out. For a guy that was supposed to be a dominant ace to pitch that poorly is beyond ridiculous. The odds-on notion in most circles is that he's hiding an injury, which would explain why he isn't trying to overpower anyone. Sell if you can, but good freaking luck with that. I've been trying and at this point have basically decided to try and ride it out.

Jonathan Sanchez, SP/RP, SF -- Doesn't seem that long ago that there was plenty of fawning on this guy as the next great strikeout artist (/raises hand to signify possible guilt). As his walks have risen, the strikeouts have decreased and so have the good starts. That's problematic. Still, Sanchez still has plenty of potential, but he's probably kicking it on the waiver wire after getting roughed around by Philly and Pittsburgh. A solid buy low assuming you don't have to start him immediately.

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Debating the Realnessability of Edinson Volquez' Hot Start

Will Brinson — 2008-05-15T01:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Reds, NL Central, Cincinnati, Fantasy Football, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

If you are in a single season fantasy league, there is absolutely zero reason you should not be trying to sell high on Edinson Volquez right now. Okay, actually, there are actually a few reasons why you don't want to move him. His sparkling ERA (1.12), coupled with his six wins (tied for second in the bigs) and 57 K's in 48 innings have made him a valuable fantasy commodity.

But, as is often the case, things are not all that they seem. Reality tells us that there are several factors working against Volquez' current success, and that makes him a superb sell high option.

First, his stats. A 1.12 ERA and a 10.61 K/9 ratio are wonderful. But there are some other mitigating factors to those numbers. His WHIP (1.26) is actually higher than his ERA. That's not obscenely shocking, but it does indicate some luck. As does his ERA when compared to his 4.84 BB/9.

Both of those numbers tell us that he is frequently allowing baserunners, but not letting them score. And that checks out perfectly with his 90.8 strand rate, 20% above the big league norm. In other words, some of these guys getting on base are going to start scoring more frequently.

Factor in his home park/bandstand alongside his 2.8% HR/FB ratio, and it becomes clear that more balls will be leaving the park soon as well. And finally, he is a rookie. Even with Dusty Baker managing -- and that might actually make it worse -- he is going to get tired later in the season and/or reach a preset innings ceiling, greatly limiting his value, especially in H2H leagues.

Justin Verlander lost is seventh game on Wednesday. The chances of him going 4-24 on the season are about as high as Volquez going 24-4. If it's a hitter you're looking for, Cincy teammate Adam Dunn is a nice possibility, given is stinkjob to start the season. Or maybe Corey Hart, with only one tater on the year thus far. The other owner is going to know that you're trying to sell Volquez high, but I'd be willing to bet that anyone owning those player is at least willing to listen to a straight up swap.

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Quick Hit: Uggla a Microcosm for Marlins

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-13T16:15:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

If you could do things like buy stock in a professional baseball team, and you owned some Florida Marlins shares right now, I'd be screaming one word to you over and over: SELL!

As of this writing, the boys from Florida -- still basking in the glory of shedding the albatross that is Dontrelle Willis -- are currently in a three-way tie for the best record in baseball with the Cubs and DBacks (yeah, I didn't have to name the other two teams, I know ... it's just fun for me).

While I'll grant you they don't suck, they certainly are not 98 win good (the current pace).

Enter the microcosm: Dan Uggla doesn't suck. He's a very solid fantasy 2B, matter of fact. Of course, he's on pace for 51 HRs and 119 RBIs right now. He can't and won't do anything close to that ... at least not the bombs. The reason for the pace is that he's been stupid in the past ten games. Since May 2nd, Uggla has eight homers and 16 ribbies while watching his average surge 45 points and his slugging skyrocket (up 199 points).

So you sell high immediately, right?

Not so fast. Let's be a little deliberate here. If you own him, I'd probably initiate trade talks ... just make sure to take an Andy MacPhail-like pace (use the Erik Bedard deal as your guide). The reason for this is that Uggla has shown quite the affection for playing baseball in May.

In 2006 he hit .356 with a .910 OPS. Only three bombs, but 18 RBI and seven other hits for extra bases. The average was 45 points higher than any other month.

In 2007 he his .307 (only .245 for the entire season). His power numbers were nice as well, with six homers (tied for his most in a month) and 16 RBI. He also clubbed 13 doubles, two triples (of three total) and walked 15 times. His OPS for the month was 1.005. He didn't have an OPS higher than .793 in any other month.

Right now? Ummm ... 1.656 OPS in May? Wow. That .353 BABIP can't last even on the balls that haven't left the yard. The reason his real average is still only .389 this month with that sick BABIP and the eight home runs is that he's struck out 12 times already (in only 36 at-bats). That's a harbinger of bad things eventually arriving -- at least in batting average.

So I grooved a 3-1 fastball for you right now. You know what to do with it.

You don't? I'll whisper:

Trade him in late May. Or early June.

History is on your side ... not Uggla's or his larger-scale friend Marlins.

Yeah, they don't suck, but when your stock for a surprising upstart company is performing like a Fortune 500, you sell it like it's cursed. With Uggla, if said history is any indication, we know when the stock will start to fall.

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Quick Hit: Soriano Heating Up

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-12T22:28:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Fantasy owners of Alfonso Soriano have been incredibly frustrated with him for pretty much the entire season ... up until Saturday, when he broke through with a 4-5 game. On Tuesday, his encore was a 2-for-5 performance that included a double and bomb (his fourth).

Keep in mind his power started very slowly last season as well. He didn't hit his fifth bomb until June 3rd ... and he ended up with 33.

Since his comeback, Sori has been showing signs of being ready to break through. He's taking pitches he was swinging at earlier in the season, and hitting balls hard as opposed to lazy fly balls and weak grounders. The average has now steadily risen since coming back from the DL -- .164 to .232 in 10 games -- and the extra base hits are piling up. Before his injury, he only garnered extra bases three times in 12 games. Since? Seven. He was even robbed of a home run by Griffey last week in Cincy.

Since he's not going to steal bases like the 40/40 man of old (only two years ago, but it seems like ages since he mattered on the bases because of leg injuries), he's not going to be the top five pick-type again ... but if you need HR and Runs help, he's your man. He's an elite option in those categories from this point forward, while he won't hurt you in the other three (you can still count on 15-20 SBs with a .290ish average and around 75 RBI).

If his owner is still sleeping, it won't hurt to make an inquiry. Remember, Soriano's made said owner endure a lot of crap thus far with very little return.

And a big return is coming ... it's right around the corner.

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New Stud: Superstar Josh Hamilton

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-12T15:30:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football, MLB New Studs, Fantasy MLB

New Studs on the Block takes a look at players ready to make the leap from "possibly productive fantasy player" to "must-have fantasy stud." This is not a "you've never heard of this dude, but ... " series -- these should be names you already know.

When I say Josh Hamilton is a superstar, I mean just that. It's not, "he could be a superstar eventually," or "he's a really damn good player." I'm saying he's on level with Carlos Beltran, Carl Crawford, and Carlos Lee ... to name a few Carls. For all the run that he got last year for his story (you know, loved the white stuff and other items dispersed by Dr. Feelgood until he cleaned up his act and became a baseball player again), he's actually underrated this season.

He started that way, as evidenced by his average draft position on several major fantasy carriers. On one -- probably the biggest out there -- he was selected 113th on average. On another, he was selected 150th on average. The latter site actually lists the highest and lowest a player was selected, and someone actually landed Hamilton with the 218th pick in one draft. Whoever you are: BRAVO!

Mock Draft Central had him taken on average 129th.

Why so low?

Coming off a year when he basically played only a half season due to injuries, I can understand some level of skepticism. In that half year, though, he did hit 19 bombs. As far as I can speculate, owners were weary of Hamilton for three reasons:

1. His personal history. People like reading about it, but fantasy owners were scared off.
2. He was moving from the NL to the AL. Players switching leagues sometimes suffer through an adjustment period (Miguel Cabrera this year, for example) ... and while he was moving to a hitter's park, he came from a better one.
3. Lack of proven track record. He had only played 90 games in the majors and 26 in the minors after a four year hiatus.

The upside was the aforementioned home run power shown last year and the massive amount of talent he possesses. Back in the 1999 draft, when he was selected first overall, he was the most hyped pick since ARod and only Justin Upton since then has received as much. Scouts hailed Hammy as a can't-miss hall-of-famer.

Well, now his talent is finally getting a chance to come to fruition. He leads the majors in RBI with 43 through 39 games. He's tied for second in the AL with eight jacks, and he's hitting .306. Considering that he turns 27 later this month, he's smack dab in the middle of his athletic prime and should stay there for the next 4-6 years.

To give you an idea of where he should rank ... I'd rather have him than Beltran. I'd take him over Travis Hafner in a heartbeat. Manny Ramirez? They are neck and neck, which should give you an idea how you should be thinking about Hamilton. That's a far cry from a guy that was getting drafted 50-75 picks after the likes of Nick Swisher, Carlos Pena, Andruw Jones, and Dontrelle Willis ... among many, many others that are all kinds of worse than Hammy.

If you own him, recognize the superstardom and enjoy it. If you don't own him, wait on a slump and pounce. He'll be worth it.

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Spot Jobs: Gamblers Welcome

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-12T00:41:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football, MLB Locking Your Lineup, Fantasy MLB

Sometimes it sucks to have everything you said in writing for all to see. It's not like you are sitting there in the bar sipping on some cold ones while making proclamations. In those cases, you can easily claim you were misconstrued or your friend wasn't paying close enough attention.

But when you do post something, and watch the last Wednesday Cubs/Reds contest (to recap, Lieber was awful and Volquez was brilliant), well, that sucks. It's times like those that one must remind himself that giving fantasy advice isn't fortune-telling. It is something I hold near and dear to my heart, though, and that's gambling.

In the case of full disclosure, I made four really good calls (the non-Volquez five down ones) and six really, really bad ones. We should know going into this column that it is the bizarro world pitching write-up. I'm going to tell you "no-brainer starters" to not play, and "don't start this guy" pitchers to start. Disasters like last week's version are bound to happen.

Remember, you are gambling here, and we love gambling. Please keep that in mind as you delve cautiously into the world of craziness that will follow the jump.

(Oh yeah, and Brinson had to remind me after the Cubs/Reds game that homerism doesn't really work in fantasy. I should know better anyway... )

Five Up

Justin Verlander, Tigers -- Yeah, he's an obvious name, but anyone with a 1-6 record and 6.43 ERA should be scrunized when setting a weekly lineup. The Royals are last in runs scored and second to last in slugging in the AL, so Tuesday is the start of his rise back to the top I'm predicting.

Jon Lester, BoSox -- Dude's been about as consistent as Chandler Bing's weight. Still, he's facing the O's Wednesday and he only issued one free pass last start. He's worth a try.

Tom Gorzelanny, Bucs -- If you take away his two starts against my Cubbies, his ERA wouldn't be bad at all. The walks have been an issue, but he only gave two of those last start. The Cardinals (his opponent this week) have already slightly started a downward offensive trend and I like it to continue. Gorz will be a strong starter from this point forward. He's too good a prospect and had too good a year in '07 to not completely turn things around.

Gavin Floyd, Pale Hosers -- Just in case you didn't know, Floyd's been dealing this year. He's currently sporting a 2.50 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. You'd love to see more Ks (19 in 39.7 innings), but ratio help is always good and he's starting to work longer into the games. Facing the light-hitting Giants in pitcher-friendly PacBell (or whatever the new sponsor is -- I refuse to keep up with such mundane detail) is quite tasty. He's one of your top one-start pitchers for the week as far as I'm concerned.

Jamie Moyer, Phils -- This is the deep, deep sleeper for the week. I don't like the Blue Jays offense, and I like it even less without Vernon Wells anchoring. Moyer can only be played if you don't need punch outs. If you are desperate and only want a victory, take the plunge! He won't sever your ERA or WHIP.

Five Down

James Shields, Rays -- Coming off a shutty? That's madness. No guts, no glory ...

Aaron Cook, Rocks -- He's 6-1 with a 2.26 ERA. Aaron Cook has those numbers. What goes up must come down ... and the Diamondbacks will oblige when called upon to aid our cause.

Darrell Rasner, Yanks -- He's had two quality starts in the Bronx, and he has a solid offense behind him. Still, the defense is subpar and he doesn't strike anyone out. That's a recipe for disaster eventually. Why not now?

Braden Looper, Cards -- 5-1 with a sub-4.00 ERA is fluky for his stuff ... and now he's getting to face an AL East offense. Much like Lohse's start in Colorado last week, this one has "UGLY" written all over it.

Chris Young, Fathers -- He's got quite solid name recognition. He's also had a few really solid starts this season (Sunday being one of them). The problem is that he's been racking up pitch counts early in the game and getting knocked around every once in a while. He's been unpredictable, and now he's facing unfamiliar hitters (Mariners Friday). That scares me.

Finally, Brinson's got the two-starters and I've been told to avoid homerism ... but don't you dare sit Big Z this week at home against the Padres and Pirates. Self-sabotage is never a good thing, no matter what your friend Brittany tells you.

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Cheap Yard Work: Week Seven

Will Brinson — 2008-05-11T23:30:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football, MLB Locking Your Lineup, Fantasy MLB

Cheap Yard Work takes a look at hitters who are likely unowned and most certainly raking.

Ryan Ludwick, OF, STL
7 day stats: .529/.518/.1.10, 3HR, 8RBI, 1BB, 0SB

It's highly unlikely that Ludwick is going to keep up his recent pace. In fact, his 11:29 BB:K ratio pretty much dictates that, no? Especially when we consider the high OBP he's been posting. It doesn't hurt that he's got a .443 BABIP or a 25% HR/FB% ratio wen you want to try and predict an inability to continue his streak. No reason you can't ride him while he's hot though.

Adam LaRoche, 1B, PIT
7 day stats: .300/.440/.650, 2HR, 5RBI, 5BB, 1SB

LaRoche stinks in the early season, as we've learned. But he's starting to heat up a little bit now, and that's nice in a week where the Pirates get 8 games. Particularly appealing is the five walks in the past seven days. Well, and the fact that picking him up could actually lead to using him for the rest of the year.

Garrett Anderson, OF, LAA
7 day stats: .368/.429/.947, 3HR, 8RBI, 2BB, 0SB

Age is an issue, but didn't seem to bother him last week. Unfortunately, he's only getting run against right handed batters, and the Angels face three Southpaws next week; only use him in daily leagues, but he's a nice filler in that capacity.
Mark Kotsay, OF, ATL
7 day stats: .364/.417/.634, 2HR, 6RBI, 2BB, 1SB

Kotsay can be injury prone/streaky, but when the guy is hot, he's a great fantasy play. That's two straight weeks of streaky in the good way though, and frankly, he's a vastly better play than the guy he's replacing, Andruw Jones.

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Whither Studly Pronk?

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-09T17:10:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football, MLB Slump or Suck, Fantasy MLB

In 2006, Travis Hafner absolutely mashed. In only 129 games, Pronk dropped 42 bombs, drove in 117, and led the majors with an obscene 1.097 OPS (registering a 179 OPS+). This was the continuation in a three year surge which placed him among the most imposing power hitters in the game.

Last year, he took a few steps backwards, but -- eventually -- his numbers weren't awful. Hitting 24 home runs and driving in 100 is quality, and he still scraped out a 118 OPS+. The problem, though, is that fantasy owners were relying on Pronk for elite power numbers in fantasy lineups, and these hardly qualified.

His draft status slipped a bit, but most people still considered last season an outlier and predicted a solid bounce-back for Pronk. He's not old yet -- of course, at 31 he's not exactly young either -- and there isn't really any evidence that can be used to justify such a drastic slip in performance between '07 and '08. Plus, he has my favorite nickname of all-time (Pronk = Project + Donkey -- "donkey" is what you call an atrocious defensive player).

So Hafner as a comeback candidate made sense. Only he's awful right now.

He's gotten so bad that he was given two consecutive off-days by manager Eric Wedge. On Wednesday night he did come in to pinch hit with the bases loaded and promptly hit into a double play (on a ball that made Willie Mays Hayes' first regular season at-bat look like a tape-measure shot).

The numbers on the season are ugly. The 3 home runs aren't horrible, but again, you are looking for an elite power hitter. The non-accumulation categories are the ugly part. He currently sports a .209 AVG, .339 SLG, and .301 OBP. That's right, the guy who usually OPSes around a grand is down to .640. He's progressively gotten worse since week 2, when it looked like he may avoid an extended slow start.

On the bright side, Hafner does have a potentially fantastic supporting cast and -- as I said earlier -- there really isn't any reason that he should have all of a sudden transformed into Aubrey Huff. He's simply not old or worn down enough to be in a decline.

The fact remains that, when including last season, this is quite a lengthy hiatus from stud-dom for the once promising superstar.

Verdict: Cautious buy low. Do not cough up a legitimate stud for him, because this is an awfully long and inexplicable slump from what he was for three years. There's nothing saying he'll be that guy again. Still, there's nothing saying he can't, so go down with the ship if you own him, in hopes Pronk magically reappears.

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Underachievers: The Tigers' Alleged Aces

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-09T10:27:00+00:00

Filed under: Detroit, Tigers, AL Central, Fantasy Football, MLB Slump or Suck, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Coming into the season, the Tigers were everyone's darlings. Why not? They had a ridiculous offense and a starting rotation capable of piling up the wins with the large expected run support. The problems that most overlooked were that the bullpen is awful (with injuries to Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya the main benefactors), Dontrelle Willis sucks, and Kenny Rogers is ancient. Personally, I didn't like them as much as others because of all this. Still, though, no one expected Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman to struggle this mightily. Both should have been armed and ready for a big season.

Bonderman is still only 25 -- doesn't it seem like he's been around forever? -- and has shown the ability to strikeout hitters (202 K in '07) and control his pitches (only averaged 56 BB/season from '05-'07) with the best. His ERA has never been stellar, but with a natural progression and the bashers supporting him you had to expect he'd be able to garner the victories in '08.

Verlander is also 25, and he's a phenom. He won 35 games in the past two years while upping his punchouts to 183 last year in just over 200 innings. With a triple digit heater and some filthy off-speeders, you'd figure him for the Cy Young race this season.

Instead, something is wrong. With both of them.

Bonderman can't throw a strike this season. He's walked 25 guys in only 41 innings, and even when he doesn't give free passes he's falling behind in the count -- which only sets up pitchers for failure. His stuff isn't what he showed it could be back in 2006, and he's not even averaging six innings per start.

Verdict: Cut bait. I don't like the chances for him to flip a switch and get going again. He could be hurt, or just mentally whipped. Either way, I'd trade him to someone who thinks they are buying low if you own him, and I wouldn't even consider trading for him if you don't.

Verlander is even more perplexing. He was the one pitching ace I targeted in drafts this pre-season (fortunately I wasn't alone since someone always snagged him before I did!). His ERA has jumped from 3.63 to 3.66 to 6.43 in his three seasons. He's already given up seven jacks in 49 innings (he only yielded 20 in 201.7 innings last season), and it's likely due to his lack of control. He's currently sitting with 21 walks and he only walked 67 dudes all year last season. On the other hand, he doesn't seem injured. His stuff is good enough to get him going again if the control gets figured out.

Verdict: Go get him. I'm calling his control to get worked out and everything will fall into place like that. Remember how bad Carlos Zambrano was last year until June? Verlander's stuff is better -- when he's on -- and he's got a potentially better offense to support him. The walks will come down, and the wins will go up. If you own him, suck it up. If you don't, now is the perfect time to buy low after yet another terrible outing last night.

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What Happened to Bill Hall? And Why Should You Care?

Matthew Greber — 2008-05-07T19:38:00+00:00

Filed under: Brewers, Milwaukee, Fantasy Football, MLB Slump or Suck, Fantasy MLB

Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Bill Hall is the kind of player that drives fans - and fantasy owners - crazy. Is he the guy who cranked 35 HR in 2006, or the one who never hit more than 17 HR in any other season? Is he the crusher who swatted four HR by April 9, or the player who has only hit three more since then?

Moving back to third base gave Hall more fantasy value this year - in theory, at least. It turns out that, at least for NL-only leagues, the outfield is possibly shallower than third base. Regardless, owners who cackled with glee at the way Hall burst out of the gates are singing a decidedly different tune right now. Hall is batting just .217 and has not shown much plate discipline, adding only 12 walks the whole season.

So, what's the story here? Is Hall going to be a drag on your batting and/or on-base average, and even if that's the case, is he going to be able to justify it with quality power statistics?

The answer is - yes and no.

You certainly aren't going to get any batting average support from Hall, but he should be able to improve, and hit roughly about .260 from here on out. That's certainly not great, but you knew that when you grabbed him for your team, right? (Right?) What's more, he's bound to get his power groove back - the Brewers play in a bandbox (not that I actually know what a bandbox is), and as the Midwest summer heats up, balls will begin to fly out of that stadium. Which means Bernie Brewer will get more exercise on the home run slide, but also that you can get some good power from a guy who you probably got for close to nothing.

More to the point, who are you swapping him out for at this point? Scott Rolen? Eric Chavez, who has yet to swing a bat? Unless you want to gamble on a guy like Blake DeWitt, who is probably available in your league (but not for long), Hall is worth keeping on your team, even if you don't start him each and every day.

Hall is definitely not the guy you want to build around, and his 2006 season appears to have been, shall we say, an outlier. But with seven home runs at the beginning of May, it's a virtual lock he'll swat 25 by the end of the year. As a Corner Infielder or reserve outfielder, you can (and like would) do a lot worse. He's for real, as long as you keep your expectations in check.

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Dynasty Diaries: Packers Have New Face(s)

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-07T16:04:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football

Dynasty Diaries takes a look at keeper leagues for fantasy football as the season quickly approaches.

With the retirement (finally) of Brett Favre, the Packers now have a new face to the franchise ... only we can't yet be 100% sure whose face it is just yet at the QB position. To me, the real face of the Packers franchise for the next few years is going to be Ryan Grant. I firmly believe the running game is going to take center stage and Grant is going to be an elite back. He's a solid first round pick in yearly fantasy drafts as far as I'm concerned (comparable value to Willie Parker) and houses even more value in keeper leagues -- being that he's only 25 years old and doesn't have much tread on his tires.

Once Brettfavre (I say it as one word because I'm trying to blend in with the rest of the media that refuse to either call him "Brett" or "Favre") called it quits, the reins of QB up in Lambeau Field were handed to Aaron Rodgers.

Or were they?

Enter draft day.

Enter GM Ted Thompson -- a disciple of famed GM Ron Wolf who believes in stockpiling QBs with the hopes that one will stick.

Enter Brian Brohm and Matt Flynn.

The Packers have said all the right things in the aftermath of selecting the two signal-callers, in that Rodgers is the QB, Brohm is there to compete for the job, and Flynn was just too good to ignore in the seventh round. Let's be honest, everyone can rattle off at least five big name QBs that were either taken late in the draft (I'll help: Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger) or not taken at all (Tony Romo, Jeff Garcia); while also being able to rattle off a list of first round QB busts (Heath Shuler, anyone? Ryan Leaf?). Being a part of the inexact science that is drafting football players, you can't blame Thompson for trying to cover his bases in replacing a legend.

I'll sort them out for you with fantasy spin:

Aaron Rodgers -- Don't be fazed by the draft picks. As I said, Thompson is merely covering the bases and filling out his QB stable. Rodgers is a top-half fantasy QB (that's 16, inept math guys) heading into 2008, he's only 24, and his offense is loaded with young talent. While I do think the running game will take center stage, that doesn't mean they won't pass at all (Hasselbeck was always a quality option with Shaun Alexander racking up stats a few years ago). Finally, I'd be remiss to leave out his motivation. He has been holding a clipboard and waiting for the old man to retire for three years while learning the offense and personnel. He's ready. You could do much, much worse than owning Rodgers in keepers at this point ... in fact, I'd rank him as a top-10 keeper at QB.

Brian Brohm -- Definitely worth a look as one of the top backup QBs in the league for keeper formats, because the Packers have enough weapons on offense to aid their QBs in putting up numbers. Look at what Rodgers did against the 'Boys last year when Brettfavre went down. Brohm's a handcuff to Rodgers in really deep yearly leagues and dynasty leagues, in case something happens this season to Rodgers. It would be nice to own Brohm in a keeper league if he walked into this situation. Remember, Favre relieved Don Majkowski once upon a time ...

Matt Flynn -- The least likely candidate to do anything other than hold a clipboard for a few years. He's pretty average across the board and won a lot of games last year due mostly to an incredible supporting cast. Still, he's a proven winner and we've seen stranger things happen ... worth a look only in the craziest long-term keeper leagues (I'm talking every single starter and about 2/3 of the backups being owned by someone before drafting rookies in a supplemental). Other than that, ignore for now.

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Fantasy Felony: Harang Should Come Cheap

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-07T00:15:00+00:00

Filed under: Reds, NL Central, Cincinnati, Fantasy Football, MLB Fantasy Felony, Fantasy MLB

Fantasy Felony tells you how to melt other owners' faces via swindling them in trades.

Aaron Harang is a bonafide upper-echelon fantasy pitcher, and when owners get through the first week of May with a 1-5 pitcher whom they landed in the early rounds ... well, they start to get angry and impatient. A desperate, disillusioned owner is a vulnerable owner in the trade market, so it's time to swoop in. Pull all your usual smooth-talking tricks. You don't have to pull a George Costanza ("do that thing you do, where you lie to everybody," says Jerry), but you can allow emphasis on cons while conveniently forgetting about the pros if the owner is complaining.

As I said, he's 1-5. His team sucks, and the run support he's receiving is embarrassing. After Tuesday night's eighth outing, Harang had surrendered 19 earned runs, while his team had only scored 23 (five of which were in one game which happened to be his only bad outing, so you can see there's bad luck at play as well).

Bet on the luck changing -- thus altering his record positively -- and everything else to remain the same.

All Harang's numbers are in line outside of the W-L column (which we know is not a quality indicator of the value of a starting pitcher in the long run) are very solid. He's punched out 48 in eight starts, while sporting a 3.09 ERA and a WHIP of 1.10; yet he's being overshadowed in fantasy circles by Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. For the rest of this season, Harang is a much more reliable option. It ain't close. With the young guys you'll get inconsistency and the possibility of hitting a wall late in the season when the innings count gets up there into unprecedented territory. Harang is a thoroughbred ... going 210+ innings in each of the last three years and 230+ in the last two. That's why he's among the league leaders in Ks each year and will continue to be.

Look, the Reds offense hasn't been good by any stretch, but with good hitters throughout the order (Junior, Dunn, Votto, Phillips, Encarnacion, Keppinger, and hopefully Jay Bruce eventually) there is no reason to believe Harang's run of poor fortune will continue.

Harang's doing his job, and the Reds' offense should start doing theirs.

You need to do yours and trade for him at this record low price.

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Dynasty Diaries: Mendenhall over Parker?

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-06T09:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football

Dynasty Diaries takes a look at keeper leagues for fantasy football as the season quickly approaches.

When the Steelers had Rashard Mendenhall fall into their lap during the draft a few weekends ago, some major fantasy implications were brought forth. For this upcoming season things may not be changing much, but in Dynasty Diaries we like to look ahead a bit.

Obviously the job belongs to Willie Parker in Pittsburgh as long as he's still there. Of course, Mendenhall should begin to steal many short-yardage vulture-type carries this season and could be banging between the tackles in order to keep Fast Willie fresh. Parker has taken a nice little beating on his diminutive frame the past three seasons. I still believe, as I alluded to earlier, that Fast Willie's a strong late-first-rounder in yearly fantasy drafts this season with Mendenhall playing the Jerome Bettis of 2005 role ... and serving as a must-have handcuff for Parker owners.

As for the future, that's a different matter altogether. I'm of the belief that you can win some keeper leagues simply by trading perceived future stars for older studs in order to win almost annually because too many owners get caught up in the "keeper" aspect and lose sight of the winning games aspect. Assuming you don't play with a bunch of hacks like that, Mendenhall is a very enticing keeper prospect.

First of all, the Steelers have a history of cutting ties with guys when they show even the slightest signs of getting worn down or overrated. I'm not saying this is the case with Parker currently, but he has two more years under contract. Let's modestly give him another 600 carries (he had 658 the past two years) ... that's a lot of tread on those tires for a small 30 year-old running back. No way the Steelers pay him, and there's a 100% chance someone else will. So that's one point.

The Steelers predicate themselves on continuity in head coaching, a hard-hitting defense, and a bruising running game. Mendenhall embodies the last part. So that's two points.

The offense in Steeltown is as balanced as ever, with Ben Roethlisberger becoming a prolific passer last season instead of a boring game-manager. Hines Ward may be old in two years, but Santonio Holmes and Limas Sweed are going to be around for a while and still have tons of untapped upside. With this passing game, the running game will be open for success as well. So that's three points.

Is three enough? In deep keeper leagues where you are playing for both this season and the future, absolutely. If you own Willie Parker in a dynasty league, you must grab Mendenhall to create a smooth transition for yourself ... the running game in Pitt is a smorgasbord for fantasy owners.

Matter of fact, I wouldn't mind building a dynasty team around Big Ben, Santonio, Limas, and Mendy.

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New Stud on the Block: Geo on Fire

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-05T23:30:00+00:00

Filed under: Cubs, NL Central, Fantasy Football, MLB New Studs, Fantasy MLB

New Studs takes a look at players ready to make the leap from "possibly productive fantasy player" to "must-have fantasy stud." This is not a "you've never heard of this dude, but ... " series -- these should be names you already know.

Coming into the season, I was as skeptical as anyone -- being a Cubs fan -- concerning Geovany Soto's breakthrough 2007 campaign. Prior to 2007, Soto had only 25 career jacks in nearly 1600 at-bats in the minors. He never OPSed higher than 750, and his career minor league batting average was .262.

Of course, in 2007 he absolutely destroyed the Pacific Coast League with a .353 average, 1076 OPS, 26 HRs, and 109 RBIs in only 110 games. He even crushed the ball in the show once he was recalled to the tune of a 1048 OPS with five bombs and 23 RBI in only 28 games.

So we knew he was capable, but what about consistency (you know Joe Morgan was worried about it)? 2007, after all, could easily have been an outlier instead of a breakthrough campaign. We've seen fluky seasons before.

It wasn't one of those, though. It was a beginning.

What happened? Well, he grew up and learned the game in addition to shedding a ton of excess baggage ... the kind that you carry in the love handles region. He came into the Cubs farm system at age 18 from San Juan, Puerto Rico and attempted to grow into the game throughout his first six minor league seasons with little success at the plate. In season seven he showed up 20 pounds lighter and was now an experienced age 24.

After his late season and playoff -- he hit the only Cubs home run in the NLDS -- performances the Cubs decided to completely hand the reins of catcher to the power-hitting 25 year-old and he has not disappointed. Monday night he dropped his sixth bomb of the season while going 3-3 total ... raising his team-leading average to .352 in the process.

And he's not just getting the stats, he's absolutely stinging balls. Having the pleasure to watch him everyday, it's evident that last year was no joke. Other than the eight-strikeouts-in-a-row disaster in Washington, he's been raking all season even when he gets out. I can remember at least three balls in week 1 in Wrigley that would have been homers had the crisp Wrigley wind not been screaming in.

Finally, there's this: he's a catcher. You know how many fantasy catchers I'd rather have than Soto right now? One. Russell Martin, and only because he steals bases -- and I'll tell you what: that gap is closing with Martin only having two swipes to this point. There's no way Geo's a sell-high candidate because he's still underrated. I'd guess right about now you'll find people that would rather own Victor Martinez (only 1 homer), Joe Mauer (no HRs or steals), Brian McCann (actually, I'd accept this argument), and Jorge Posada if he was healthy (not healthy and not young).

Just as Stanley said when he was selecting a partner in The Office's sales calls episode:

"I'll take the kid."

You do the same, if there's a way to get him with his current owner attempting to sell high ... especially in keeper leagues. He's only 25, and the windy city skyline is the limit.

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Dynasty Diaries: Benson Out, Forte In

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-05T14:41:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football

Dynasty Diaries takes a look at keeper leagues for fantasy football as the season quickly approaches.

Whether or not you believe Benson in the face of the recent allegations -- and for the record I don't -- this incident is simply the continuation in a march to the end of the Ced Benson era in the Bears backfield. You can pile up on or off-field pieces of evidence, but the conclusion is the same: the point is coming where the Bears just cut their losses and admit the fourth overall pick from just three drafts ago was a colossal bust.

Consider:

1. Benson is a bad guy. On the surface at least, and that's all that matters with PR. This arrest was his third. He appears to be indifferent at best and annoyed at worst when he's playing football or standing on the sidelines. I can't think of one situation where he ever came across as likable, but I do have a story that makes him hateable.

You can read it after the jump ... it's really telling about his personality.

A few of my friends scored front row seats last year to the Bears/Lions game in Chicago. When the Bears lost, my buddy Scott yelled (without profanity, and nary a specific word in Benson's direction) something along the lines of, "3-5? Are you kidding me? This is ridiculous, you guys are better than that." Benson turned around laughing and shrugged his shoulders as if to say, "I don't care." Not only does this story reaffirm, to me, that he doesn't care, but it illustrates that he actually wants people to know he doesn't care.

So yeah, he's not a good guy. We know from past history that it's much easier for GMs to dismiss players who run afoul of the law when they aren't liked by the fans.

Anyway, let's continue ...

2. Benson is a bad player. He carries a subpar average is 3.8 yards per carry in his NFL career, and only gained 674 rushing yards last season (on 3.4 per rush) as the feature back in an offense that stresses running. For being an alleged power back (because he's not fast enough to go outside) he wears down awfully easy ... as evidenced by his average per carry diminishing as the game goes on. He averages 4.9 yards per carry on his first five of the game, 3.7 on his next five, and the rest of the game his averages are awful; including 1.9 yards per on carries 11-15.

3. Benson is bad at staying healthy. He still hasn't played a full season, and coming off a broken leg that's not likely to change in '08.

So where are we? Well, for starters ... if you play in a keeper/dynasty league and you own Benson, my apologies. He's not really worth much at this point. If you only retain a certain number of guys just drop him, no matter what that number is. If you are saddled with him in dynasty leagues that only have supplemental draft picks and don't re-draft anyone, you better be ready to snag one of the young RBs taken early in the draft (McFadden, Mendenhall, Matt Forte, etc.) to replace Ced.

The Bears are in the process of reworking what was a woeful offensive line last season, and they will remain committed to the run. They also drafted the aforementioned Forte out of Tulane in the second round. This season should be a growing process for him and the offensive line, but down the road you can foresee Forte (wow, that sounds weird) as a quality RB2 in fantasy as soon as 2009. For 2008 he's probably in the RB3 or RB4 range, depending a ton on how everything shakes out with Benson.

One thing is for sure, for now you definitely would rather be a Matt Forte owner than Cedric Benson owner.

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Cheap Yard Work: No, Seriously. Use a Pirate

Will Brinson — 2008-05-05T02:30:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football, MLB Locking Your Lineup, Fantasy MLB

Cheap Yard Work takes a look at unheralded hitters who are raking and helps you plan your starting lineup each week.

Jose Bautista, 3B, PIT
Stats: .417/.444/.875, 3HR, 7RBI, 2BB, 1SB

I was going to make a Pirates joke, but you know, they haven't been that bad this year, at least from a fantasy perspective. Bautista has accrued almost all of those above stats over the weekend, so he might seem like too aggressive of a start. How-EVA, he's killing lefties this year, hitting .346/.419/.808. And given that four of the six guys the Pirates will face this week are lefties, he makes a pretty nice spot start in deep leagues.

Juan Pierre, OF, LAD
Stats: .563/.611/.688, 0HR, 3RBI, 1BB, 3SB

Okay, I dislike Pierre as much as anyone, but someone drafted him looking for those elusive steals. And have probably dropped him since. But he's getting decent AB's (16 over the last week) and producing big time with them. If he gets on base over 60% of the time, Joe Torre will play him, especially with Andruw Jones stink-bombing it up. (Although it's worth noting that Matt Kemp is even hotter right now). But if you're ever gonna use him to get those swipes, now is the time.

Mark Kotsay, OF, ATL
Stats: .429/.456/.667, 1HR, 6RBI, 1BB, 1SB

Speaking of Druw Jones, you're replacement is lapping, you brah. Get it together. Just to avoid the shame. Anyway, Kotsay is raking the ball the last week and is known for being streaky and getting injured. You're better off riding the streak early before he gets hurt. Start him in deeper leagues and consider the flier even in smaller ones if your outfield is banged up.

Mike Cameron, OF, MIL
Stats: .270/.367/.654, 3HR, 7RBI, 4BB, 0SB

Ah, look at that average. Welcome back, Mr. Cameron. Oh and he has eight strikeouts in 26 at bats too, which is pretty, um, impressive. Still, the guy's hitting the ball out of the park and he's getting at bats for the Brewers. You could do worse if you've got a banged up outfield, especially when the best pitcher they face is Scott Olsen. No, seriously. The rest of the list includes names liiike: Badenhop, Pineiro, Looper, Wellemeyer and Hendrickson.

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Spot Jobs: Switching Twins

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-05T01:03:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football, MLB Locking Your Lineup, Fantasy MLB

Spot Jobs is the bizarro obvious fantasy pitcher column for the week ... giving five names for good fill-in starters and five names for normally startable guys to sit. Most will be gambles, but we love gambling.

Five Up

Kevin Slowey, Twins -- Returns to the rotation from a rehab assignment this week and gets to face a White Sox team that is really struggling offensively at this point. You have to like the Sox chances to start getting the bats going again eventually, but Slowey is a solid K/BB ratio guy and will be able to come back with a bang.

Kei Igawa, Yankees -- This is my deeeeeeep sleeper option for the week. Igawa will probably be plugged in the Yankees rotation to replace the struggling Ian Kennedy (who has been optioned to Triple-A). Igawa's a gamble, but ... you know.

Kason Gabbard, Rangers -- He's ready to re-join the Rangers rotation after a very successful rehab stint and is on track to get the nod Thursday in spacious Safeco Field. The caveat is that you can only look for ERA and WHIP help, because he's not really a strikeout pitcher and his counterpart on the hill in that game would be King Felix.

Carlos Villanueva, Brewers -- He's not gonna walk anyone, and the Marlins offense isn't especially high-powered. It's a pitcher's park, as opposed to where he gave up back-to-back-to-back jacks last Friday. I'm calling a bounce-back win with high Ks and -- as I said -- no walks.

Jon Lieber, Cubs -- He's taking Rich Hill's spot in the rotation and he's been dealing out of the bullpen whenever the Cubs need him. He's a professional, but you know he's much happier on the starting pitchers' bus. A happier vet makes a better fantasy player ... uh, I think. Whatever, I like him against the Reds.

Five Down

Scott Baker, Twins -- Don't start him. He may miss his turn in the rotation with groin issues (insert inappropriate joke), and even if he does pitch he's shaky ... he left his last start early with a flare-up of the malady.

Edinson Volquez, Reds -- Gut feeling here. The Cubs have already seen him once and sport obscene offensive numbers in nearly every category. They'll take pitches out of his arm early and mess up his ERA a bit when he gets tired.

Kyle Lohse, Cardinals -- His descent back to our planet continues, this time in Colorado where the Rockies bats are attempting to awaken and re-announce their presence with authority.

Greg Smith, A's -- His stock is just too high right now, and that's nothing that a visit to Arlington, Texas can't solve. He just throttled the Rangers Sunday in Oakland, but they'll be better prepared for his stuff this time around.

Brett Myers, Phillies -- There was a brief shining moment there, huh? 10 strikeouts. Well, he was facing the Giants and they still got nine dudes on base. It takes a lot more than that to sell me. Watch this: the Diamondbacks are going to shatter your confidence in him. Again.

Finally, Wednesday night's Yankees/Indians tilt is a must-see for pure baseball fans (you know, the ones who enjoy a 1-0 game between two usually good hitting teams even if there aren't a lot of strikeouts?) ... Wang vs. the out-of-his-mind Cliff Lee in the Bronx. Is it time for Lee to implode? Can Wang improve to seven and zero? I'm excited ... now go set those lineups. Good luck this week.

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The Olsen Twins: Two Starts Week 6

Will Brinson — 2008-05-04T16:53:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football, MLB Locking Your Lineup, Fantasy MLB

There are very few technically "elite" two start options this week, but that means there are some pretty nice up and coming options. Standing out is Max Scherzer, newly rotationed with the Arizona Diamondbacks and a potential K goldmine. Don't worry about benching him against Philly -- the Phils whiff a lot, even if they have tons of power and he could end up with 10+ strikeouts.

Garrett Olson is actually a better start than Scott Olsen, in my mind, and a tremendous sleeper this week. Scott has been pretty lucky this season and has a nice pair of starts but I expect him to come back to earth. Expect similar bouncebacks from Gavin Floyd and Braden Looper. Actually Looper already landed. Don't start him.

Jonathan Sanchez is another great two start option for K's galore as well. Ubaldo Jimenez represents a ton of upside, but I just can't see using him until he gets his control back; a dangerous start if he's unable to find the strike zone.

Jeremy Bonderman apparently isn't "must start" anymore, and with the Red Sox and Yankees on the schedule, that's kind of a reasonable attitude to take. Still, I'm running him out there in most leagues with the Tigers offense and the shutdown job he did on Boston recently. If he cut back on the walks, he'll get back to dominant.

Pitcher	Team	First Start	Second Start
Daisuke Matsuzaka	BOS	at DET, Bonderman	at MIN, Slowey
Chris Young	SD	at ATL, Jurrjens	v. COL, Redman
Fausto Carmona	CLE	at NYY, Pettitte	v. TOR, Burnett
Javier Vazquez	CHW	at TOR, McGowan	at SEA, Washburn
A.J. Burnett	TOR	v. TB, Sonnanstine	at CLE, Carmona

Max Scherzer	ARI	v. PHI, Moyer	at CHC, Marquis
Ervin Santana	LAA	at KC, Tomko	at TB, Sonnanstine
Oliver Perez	NYM	at LA, Billingsley	v. CIN, Cueto
Jeremy Bonderman	DET	v. BOS, Matsuzaka	v. NYY, Rasner
Dustin McGowan	TOR	v. CHW, Vazquez	at CLE, Laffey
Chad Billingsley	LAD	v. NYM, Perez	v. HOU, Cassel
Andy Pettitte	NYY	v. CLE, Carmona	at DET, Robertson
Jonanthan Sanchez	SF	at PIT, Gorzellany	v. PHI, Eaton
Jair Jurrjens	ATL	v. SD, Young	at PIT, Gorzellany
Johnny Cueto	CIN	v. CHC, Dempster	at NYM, Perez
Ryan Dempster	CHC	at CIN, Cueto	v. ARI, Johnson
Randy Johnson	ARI	v. PHI, Eaton	at CHC, Dempster
Brian Bannister	KC	v. ANA, Adenhart	v. BAL, Burres
Andy Sonnanstine	TB	at TOR, Burnett	v. ANA, Santana
Gavin Floyd	CHW	v. MIN, Blackburn	at SEA, Batista
Kevin Millwood	TEX	at SEA, Washburn	v. OAK, Smith
Dana Eveland	OAK	v. BAL, Olson	at TEX, Ponson
Garrett Olson	BAL	at OAK, Eveland	at KC, Tomko
Scott Olsen	FLA	v. MIL, Suppan	at WAS, Hill
Ubaldo Jiminez	COL	v. STL, Piniero	at SD, Maddux
Tim Wakefield	BOS	at DET, Robertson	at MIN, Blackburn
Nick Blackburn	MIN	at CHW, Floyd	v. BOS, Wakefield
Nate Robertson	DET	v. BOS, Wakefield	v. NYY, Pettitte
Braden Looper	STL	at COL, Redman	at MIL, Suppan
Jeff Suppan	MIL	at FLA, Olsen	v. STL, Looper
Brian Burres	BAL	at OAK, Dusch.	at KC, Bannister
Jarrod Washburn	SEA	v. TEX, Millwood	v. CHW, Vazquez
Joel Piniero	STL	at COL, Jimenez	at MIL, Sheets
Shawn Hill	WAS	at HOU, Cassel	v. FLA, Olsen
Miguel Batista	SEA	v. TEX, Ponson	v. CHW, Floyd
Jamie Moyer	PHI	at ARI, Scherzer	at SF, Sanchez
Adam Eaton	PHI	at ARI, Johnson	at SF, Sanchez
Jack Cassel	HOU	v. WAS, Hill	at LAD, Billingsley
Mark Redman	COL	v. STL, Looper	at SD, Young
Brett Tomko	KC	v. ANA, Santana	v. BAL, Olson
Sidney Ponson	TEX	at SEA, Batista	v. OAK, Eveland

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Quick Pitches: Hill Out, Scherzer a Temp?

Matt Snyder — 2008-05-03T14:11:00+00:00

Filed under: Fantasy Football, MLB Bust a Move, Fantasy MLB

To the surprise of no one who has been watching (in agony) Rich Hill pitch this season, he was finally relieved of his duties as a member of the Cubs rotation. Jon Lieber will take over. Personally this couldn't have come soon enough, because I was embarrassed for Hill when watching his absolutely disgraceful attempts to find the strike zone all season. From a fan's point of view, he's just not tough enough. From a fantasy analysts' point of view, he's the ultimate buy-low currently based upon his upside to get punch-outs and dubyas down the road. If you have bench space where you can allow him to rot for about a month, take a flier.

As for Lieber, he's an old workhorse who can log the innings. He has been one of the few brights spots out of the Cubs bullpen this season, and the ERA is sparkling. He doesn't K many, but he should be able to keep that ERA down and garner some victories. He's a pick-up in really, really deep leagues (like 12 team NL-Only). Other than that, you can ignore for now.

More pitching notes after the jump ...

* 21 year-old phenom Nick Adenhart got the call for his first major league start for the Angels Thursday night, to which the A's bats responded: Welcome to the Show, kid. Adenhart -- much like Ryan Howard began ... no, not that Ryan Howard -- is a temp anyway, as the Angels are only planning on him getting three starts before being sent back down to dominate the minors some more (4-0, 0.87 thus far). He's a must-have in long-term keeper leagues, but for this season the Angels have better things to do than let a 21 year-old kid get knocked around.

* The Royals, on the other hand, don't. Okay, so Luke Hochevar is 24. The message remains. He's going to be left in the rotation to learn the bigs and take his lumps. His upside is very high (keeper leaguers), but he's going to have his share of failures this year. He did bounce-back from a disastrous debut with a solid outing in his second start, resulting in a win. I like him for AL-only leagues for now, but if he strings a few good starts together, take a look in deeper mixed leagues.

* With Yovani Gallardo destroying his ACL, the Brewers will look to Dave Bush to fill the rotation spot. He's shown in the past that immediately following your thinking he's going to be reliable, he proves you wrong. I wouldn't bite unless it was an extremely deep league. You don't need the aggravation.

* Finally, Max Scherzer hasn't even made a big league start yet, and he's absolutely destroying hype-meters everywhere. The Diamondbacks could be in for a very sensitive but ultimately good problem quite soon. Big Unit and Micah Owings are not going to be removed from the rotation behind Haren and Webb. So Scherzer is the last piece of the rotation, right? Well, for now. Doug Davis had his cancerous thyroid removed and you've got to guess the Snakes' brass wouldn't allow cancer to steal his job. He will have two rehab starts, so Scherzer is going to get the chance to prove his worth; but things get salty after that. Will he be a temp like Adenhart? If the youngster fires a gem or two next week against a quality offense (he's taking on the Phillies and Cubs), things will really get interesting. He's too good to revisit the minors, so you worry (fantasy standpoint obviously) about him sliding into a Joba Chamberlain role. No matter what you do with Max at this point, it's gotta be considered a gamble based upon the unknown ... but you know I like gambling.

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