Posts from the Nfl Gambling Category at FanHouse - AOL Sports Blog

Just because the calendar reads July doesn't mean you can't gamble on the NFL. As a result of yesterday's news rumor, the good folks at Bodog have updated their odds on whether Brett Favre will play again:

What will Brett Favre do for the 2008 NFL Season?

Stay Retired Even

Rejoin Packers before the start of the season 3/2

Rejoin Packers after the start of the season 4/1

Play for another NFL team from Game 1 6/1

Play for another NFL after start of the season 14/1

I wouldn't totally rule out putting down some cash on those 14-1 odds that he plays for another team after the start of the season. If the report that Favre asked to be released is true, he could be thinking that maybe he'd like to wait things out and see if a quarterback on a Super Bowl contender gets hurt, and then he could ride in on his white horse and save the day.

Still, my money is on stay retired.

A recent movement in the body of Delaware's legislative branch could result in -- *gasp* -- legalized sports gambling throughout the state, according to the Washington Times. Already a home for degenerates looking to get their tax free shopping fix, the state could have sportsbooks on the books as soon as 2009, with New Jersey potentially beating it there.

The cause of the legislation, passed by the House and now in front of the Senate, is apparently a fear that with surrounding states making the lottery, slots and horse racing legal, the Little D loses much of its cache with northeastern gamblers.

Pennsylvania last year legalized slot machines, with 14 casinos approved for more than 70,000 slot machines. And now you have the battle taking place in Maryland, where voters will decide in November whether to approve slots.

[...]The New Jersey State Assembly passed a bill in February allowing legalized sports betting in Atlantic City casinos despite the federal ban. That measure hasn't gone anywhere, but once Delaware approves sports betting, everyone will want into the game.

That's right, America. You are going down. And you can blame it all on the Mid-Atlantic.

The Bleacher Report has brought out their NFL Draft drinking game. If you are looking for an excuse to get wasted quickly, check it out and play so you can deal with the (over)hype and drink your arse off (like the guy pictured).

But how can we help ourselves? We're fans. And as fans, we need to know every detail about every player our team is considering drafting. And when our team finally picks an unknown linebacker from Middle Southern Tennessee State, we're going to need one of ESPN's 23 draft analysts to breakdown his 40 time and discuss his upside.

So, here are just some of the "rules" to follow to make your NFL Draft a jolly one:

• Every time Chris Berman unveils a ridiculous nickname...drink!
• Every time a Chris Berman nickname references a song that's over 20 years old...drink twice!
• Every time an ESPN analyst confuses Jake and Chris Long...drink!
• Every time Emmitt Smith uses a word that isn't actually a word...drink!
• Every time you hear the word "spygate"...drink!
• Every time Chris Mortensen "breaks" a story...drink!
• If an analyst talks about the potential of Bengals WR Chad Johnson getting traded...drink!
• Every time someone mentions that Tom Brady was drafted in the sixth round...drink!

As of right this minute, Brett Favre is not the Green Bay Packers' quarterback, and Gene Upshaw is the executive director of the NFL Players Association. But the two biggest stories in the NFL this week have been about the possibility that one or both of those things could change.

The odds against Favre returning or Upshaw leaving, however, are long -- and you can actually see the odds, and bet on them, at Bodog:

Will Gene Upshaw be fired or resign from the Executive Director Position of the NFLPA before the start of the 2009-2010 Season? (Yes Only)

Yes +500

Will Brett Favre play again in the 2008-2009 Season?

Yes +325

No -600

Of the two possibilities, I would have to say that Upshaw leaving the union is more likely than Favre returning to the Packers. For all the talk that Favre might want to get back in the game, I would actually be amazed if it happens. Upshaw has the support of most players and isn't likely to leave this year, but the whims of the union membership seem more likely to change than the status of Favre as a retiree.

Patriots tight end Benjamin Watson had ankle surgery a few weeks ago. Shockingly, when asked about it, Watson went into great detail about the procedure and his prognosis going forward: "I can't talk about it. ... You'll have to ask Coach (Bill) Belichick."

The Boston Herald's Karen Guregian writes that "[a]ccording to one source, there is now some concern whether Watson will be ready for training camp in July." That's potentially news, but the perhaps more noteworthy is how Watson was hurt in the first place.

Watson injured the ankle during the second quarter of the Pats' 48-27 Week 6 win at Dallas on Oct. 14. He caught a pass and was dragged down from behind by Cowboys safety Roy Williams.

He missed the next two games before returning in Week 9 against Indianapolis. Watson was also inactive two of the last three games of the regular season after reaggravating the injury in the Pittsburgh game.

Ah, yes, Roy Williams, the guy who has made a good living out of ending other players' careers via the ol' horse-collar tackle.

The only shocking thing about this is that Vegas actually thinks six teams have a worse chance of winning the Super Bowl than the Detroit Lions. The Matt Millen All-Stars are currently at 65/1 ahead of the Bills (80/1), Chiefs (100/1), Dolphins (80/1), Jets (70/1), Raiders (100/1), and 49ers (80/1).

And as the Detroit Free Press points out, the Lions' 22/1 odds of making it to the Super Bowl and losing are also among the worst. Okay, I get it, they're not very good. But I don't actually think Detroit is the 26th best team in the league, either. (Of course, once you get past the first 12 teams or so, you could basically give the next 20 the same odds.)

For example, Bodog Sportsbook has the Bears and Vikings at 30/1. Are they more than twice as likely to win the Super Bowl than the Lions, a team that started 6-2? You might convince me on Minnesota, but Chicago? Is Rex Grossman making these odds? Whatever. Like I said, it really doesn't matter because I'm pretty sure a NFC North team ain't winning it all. Call it a hunch.

So who has the best odds? A better question: do you even have to ask? Yeah, the Patriots (10/3). Duh. And they're followed by the Colts (7/1), Cowboys(8/1) and Chargers (8/1). The Super Bowl champion Giants are at 14/1, the same as the Jaguars.

Now that Brett Favre is retired, what kind of chances do the Green Bay Packers have of winning the Super Bowl under Favre's likely replacement, Aaron Rodgers?

Not great, but not terrible either, according to the new Super Bowl odds posted today by Bodog. The Packers were listed at 14/1 before the Favre retirement announcement and are now listed at 20/1. I would have thought Favre's retirement would drop the Packers down a bit further than that.

As for Rodgers himself, you can also place a bet on his 2008 passing yards (the over/under is set at 3,250), his touchdowns (19) and his interceptions (15). For the record, Favre passed for 4,155 yards, 28 touchdowns and 15 interceptions last season.

And for the record, I'd bet the under on all three for Rodgers in 2008, for the simple reason that I don't think Rodgers is going to throw enough passes to reach any of those totals. I look for Packers coach Mike McCarthy to reshape the offense to make the Packers more of a running team (they passed 578 times and ran 388 times in 2007), and I don't think you can ever be confident that a quarterback who has never started a game will be able to start 16 in his first season at the helm. Bet the under on all of Rodgers' numbers, and bet against the Packers winning the Super Bowl.

If you bet $100 on the New York Giants winning the Super Bowl this time last year, you made $3000 when Bill Belichick scampered off the field before the final whistle. Not a bad return on your investment but it would be peanuts compared to what some Ravens supporters stand to make if Baltimore can win Super Bowl XLIII.

When the first set of futures odds came out, the Ravens were anywhere from 100 to 125-to-1 shots to lift the Lombardi Trophy next February. That put them in the company of the 1-15 Miami Dolphins, the directionless Atlanta Falcons and other teams that aren't spending their Super Bowl bonuses just yet. Something strange is happening in Vegas, however, reports Bill Ordine of the Baltimore Sun.

The Ravens opened at 100-1 and yesterday, they were down to 50-1. One sports book executive said the Ravens were the most-wagered-on team so far in the Super Bowl futures.

What's causing this run on the Ravens? They did hire John Harbaugh since the first odds were set, maybe his brother Jim got some Stanford eggheads to come up with a favorable statistical profile on their chances. Of course, it could also be a bunch of drunken Baltimoreans who won big at craps.

Whatever's behind the bullishness, if the Ravens pull off the unlikely in 12 months, Vegas could take another $2.6 million bath like they did last Sunday.

Sunday's 17-14 win by the Giants has been praised by a wide range of people. Bloggers and curmudgeonly Sports Illustrated writers alike called it the best Super Bowl they'd ever seen. The game was the second most watched television program of all time, causing a spontaneous money fight between Rupert Murdoch and Ryan Seacrest and leaving most of the country jazzed by the exciting finale.

So much fun was had, in fact, that it seemed like Bill Belichick was the only person with a frown on his face Monday morning. Not so, however. In Vegas, Super Bowl XLII will be referred to as Black Sunday. The city's casinos posted a $2.6 million loss on Sunday, only the second time they've lost money on the game since 1992. Some of the blame is placed on bettors who played the moneyline and bet the Giants to win outright. At more than 3.5-to-1, those bets paid off handsomely.

The point spread didn't help matters much either. Set at 14 initially, the line dipped closer to 12 before kickoff which indicates a lot of action for the Giants. That makes sense. Despite their gaudy record, the Patriots hadn't been kicking teams' heads in the way they were early in the season while the Giant defense was clearly operating at a very high level.

The upside for Vegas? The game ended around 7:30 which left plenty of time for soused, happy Giant bettors to give their winnings back on the tables.

The New England Patriots came up short last night, but they head into the off-season as the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIII in 2009.

According to Bodog, the Patriots begin the off-season as the favorites, with 4/1 odds of winning Super Bowl XLIII. Following the Patriots are the Chargers at 6/1 and the Colts at 8/1.

If fans of the Super Bowl champion Giants are looking for reasons to feel disrespected, they can find one in the fact that the Giants' odds of winning the Super Bowl a year from now are 10/1, identical to the Cowboys.

What does it all mean? I don't know. Before the draft and free agency it's awfully hard to predict with any degree of accuracy who's going to be the best team in the league next year. For that matter, it's hard to predict with any degree of accuracy who's going to win it all even after the draft and free agency. Would you have bet on the Giants in August?