The conventional wisdom right now is that when the Brewers traded for CC Sabathia this June, they loaded up for a one year run at the playoffs. Both CC and Ben Sheets will be free agents after the World Series ends and losing those two from a rotation that finished the season up so poorly seems like an awfully daunting task. That's just a cursory look at things, though. A deeper look reveals something entirely different.

First off, all indications are that the Brewers will make a run at CC. They have some budget room with Sheets, Eric Gagne, and maybe Mike Cameron coming off of the books. Even if they can't keep pace with the Sabathia bidding (which seems likely), they should have in-house replacements in Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra. Gallardo has all the makings of a true future ace and looked fairly strong in his return from a torn ACL late in the season. Parra had a great two-month stretch from May through July this year and has nice minor league numbers. They're not Sheets and Sabathia yet, but most teams would kill to have two young pitchers like Gallardo and Parra.

Beyond that, the key components of their lineup will all be back next year and there's no reason to think that any of them are going to suffer any kind of appreciable drop in production. In fact, guys like Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, and Corey Hart are all young enough that they should still be improving. They'll have five first round picks next year after Sheets and Sabathia sign elsewhere, and they should have a nice chunk of change to spend on free agents until Mat Gamel and Jeremy Jeffress are ready to help the big club. Don't count the Brewers out next year, just because Sheets and Sabathia are leaving at the talking heads are telling you to.

Last year, the Phillies rolled through September and in to the playoffs on a huge wave of momentum. Everyone expected them to smash the young Rockies on their way to the NLCS and maybe even beyond. They were quickly swept by Colorado and back home before they really even knew what hit them. This year they rolled through September again to win the NL East, and again were facing a team that surged late to take the wild card. After last year's sweep, people were much more reserved about their chances.

Apparently, they learned their lesson. Today they soundly crushed the Brewers 6-2 behind two homers from Pat Burrell and advanced to their first NLCS since 1993. Just as in Games 1 and 2 in the series, the Phillies offense overwhelmed the Brewers' pitching staff. They launched four homers (Jimmy Rollins in the first,Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth in the fourth, and Burrell again in the eighth) that accounted for all six runs, with three of the homers coming off of Jeff Suppan.

Brewer fans likely have a lot of questions after this series (What if Ben Sheets was healthy? What if Dale Sveum started Yovani Gallardo in Game 4 instead of Suppan? What happened to Corey Hart?), but this Phillie team is clicking on all cylinders right now. Who would've thought they could roll to three decisive wins with Ryan Howard only racking up two hits? As with the other NLDS matchup, the team that won was simply better in the series.

Most of us have taken for granted that CC Sabathia isn't long for Milwaukee, and given how the Brewers rode him like a rented car in the stretch run, it seemed like the coaching staff wasn't planning on having him back, either. But before he packs his bags and heads for some rich team on the coast (he should have his pick -- the Yankees, Angels and Dodgers have all been mentioned in rumors), it turns out the Brewers might make a pitch for him to stay after all. From ESPN's Buster Olney:

Others in the Brewers' organization say Milwaukee owner Mark Attanasio will try to make it very difficult for Sabathia to leave -- maybe to the point of risking a colossal mistake. Attanasio has seen how Sabathia has made an enormous difference for Milwaukee in attendance -- which climbed dramatically for every game the left-hander started -- and in the standings; the Brewers were 14-3 in the 17 regular-season starts that Sabathia made for the team. And he was a model of competitive integrity; if you wanted to invest big dollars in any player, you'd feel great about signing Sabathia, who demonstrated repeatedly that he will put his team above his own personal interests. You couldn't blame Attanasio if he were to get aggressive with his offer to the lefty.

It's a risky move -- CC has thrown a lot of pitches over the last four years -- but if the Brewers are intent on getting an ace, I'd prefer to see them gamble on a free agent than pulling the trigger on the "Matt Cain for Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy" proposal floated by Peter Gammons recently.

Sabathia has been a horse his entire career, making at least 30 starts a year every season but one (when he made 28 in 2006), so it's not out of the question that he mainstains his current level of production. On the other hand, he could just as easily follow the up-and-down career-arc of Bartolo Colon, another pudgy workhorse who got his start with the Indians, though I think staying in the more pitcher-friendly National League helps mitigate that risk.

In 2006 and 2007, the National League Central was the running joke of the National League. The Cardinals won the division with 83 wins in 2006, one of the lowest win totals ever for a division champ, and the Cubs followed up last year with just 85 wins, prompting people to dub the division, "The Comedy Central." The division rebounded this year, with the Cubs rolling to 97 wins, the most in the NL and the Brewers claiming the wild card with 90. Now both teams are on the verge of a playoff sweep. What happened?

The Cubs' problem is fairly obvious: the Dodgers are much better than an 84-win team. They played much of the season without Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal, two key parts of their NLDS lineup. Their lineup is a very dangerous one with those two in it. The Cubs have also failed to score. Five runs in two games are not going to get the job done in the playoffs. Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto have been terrible in the series. The Cubs' offense this year has been marked by a lineup full of guys that have been good but not great. Remove two bats from that mix and you've got a problem.

The Brewers' problem is easier to recognize. Down the stretch they buckled because their pitching staff fell apart and some hitters slumped at the same time. They rebounded behind the hitters clicking, an easy schedule, and CC Sabathia. The Phillies are much better than the Pirates or the understaffed Cub team they beat to get into the playoffs and Sabathia looks like he's finally run out of gas. That's a recipe for disaster in Milwaukee.

Two good opponents, some mis-timed slumps, and a pitcher with 260 innings. That's why the best regular season division in the National League is about to be swept out of the playoffs in one round.

In the Playoff Pulse series, our MLB editor takes on a hot October topic.

Considering how I raked Vladimir Guerrero over the coals for being a playoff choker yesterday, it'd be easy to do the same to CC Sabathia after his lousy Game 2 performance. Sabathia couldn't escape the fourth inning in a loss to the Phillies.

He surrendered a grand slam to the light-hitting Shane Victorino, walked pitcher Brett Myers (and three others) and put the Brewers in a 2-0 hole that they are unlikely to climb out of. More importantly to Sabathia's legacy, it extended a rough run of performances in the postseason that extends back to last year.

The burly left-hander has just two wins in the playoffs -- one of which came back in 2001 -- and a career postseason ERA of 7.92.

But it's hard to blame Sabathia or anyone else really for what happened Thursday night in Philadelphia.

In the 17 games that CC Sabathia started for the Brewers this year, Milwaukee went 14-3. In his last two starts, both of which came on short rest, he struck out 18 batters in 16 innings, holding opponents to one earned run and eight hits. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder came up especially big down the stretch for the Brewers, but I don't think even they will argue that CC Sabathia is the reason the Brewers are in the playoffs.

Today, Brewers' nation again turns their lonely eyes to the big lefty. After being thoroughly dominated by Cole Hamels and the Phillies in Game 1, Sabathia needs yet another big performance on short rest to keep the Brewers from falling into what would be a nearly insurmountable 2-0 deficit before they get back to Miller Park. He's already logged 253 innings and 10 complete games this year and with his fourth start on short rest tonight, he's redefining the term "workhorse."

The question, of course, is would you really bet against him tonight? He fell apart in the playoffs last year, but he wasn't used to such an intense workload. This year his inning totaly is pretty much right on line with last years and I think that gives him a better chance of holding things together. Even on short rest again, the Brewers don't want anyone else on the mound for their biggest game in 25 years.

Now that the White Sox have punched their ticket to the dance, let the playoffs begin. And there will be no dipping of toes to test the water ... we're diving right in with three playoff openers in succession. Yovani Gallardo matches up with Cole Hamels as the Brewers face the Phillies at 3:00 ET, Derek Lowe and Ryan Dempster send their Dodgers and Cubs into battle at 6:30, and for you insomniacs, Californians, and Red Sox Nation citizens, it's Jon Lester vs. John Lackey to kick off the third playoff battle in five seasons between the Bosox and Halos.

FanHouse celebrates the arrival of the playoffs the only way we know how: We're live blogging it all! That's right ... join Andrew Johnson, myself, and perhaps some cameos from our team of baseball bloggers for a live blog marathon. It's baseball heaven, so with apologies to T.O., getcha popcorn ready!

When you look at the Brewers on paper -- say like when you're trying to make your playoff predictions -- it's easy to get lost in the glare of all the power they possess. Prince Fielder. Ryan Braun. J.J. Hardy. Corey Hart. There's a lot of pop in the lineup, even outside of the middle of the order.

All that raw power makes it easy to ignore the things that Milwaukee doesn't necessarily do well -- like play defense. The Brewers are decent up the middle, but weak on the corners in the infield. Mike Cameron is the only plus defender in their everyday lineup.

The irony, of course, is that Cameron's miscue hurt Milwaukee most in Game 1. His awkward misplay of Chase Utley's sharp liner, which took off in the whipping wind at Citizens Bank Ballpark, led to two Phillies runs. That was all the Fightin's needed with Cole Hamels dealing.

But those runs were set up by a more unforgivable sequence earlier in the third inning. After a leadoff single by Carlos Ruiz, third baseman Bill Hall bobbled Hamels' sacrifice bunt attempt, blowing a chance to gun down the slow-footed Ruiz at second. Then Rickie Weeks dropped Hall's throw at first, spoiling the consolation out and setting up Cameron's gaffe.

The Brewers probably didn't have much of a chance with the way Hamels was dominating, but they made it a moot point with their poor defense. The pair of miscues cost them runs and probably cost starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo, who was on a tight pitch count, an extra inning on the mound.

It's cliche, but you can't give a good team extra outs and expect to win. Milwaukee doesn't have the type of defense or the type of pitching staff -- save CC Sabathia -- where it can afford to make fielding blunders. If the Brew Crew doesn't sharpen its glovework, it's going to be a very short return trip to the postseason.

When Mullet and I debated the Brewers-Phillies series yesterday, I thought that two of the points that I raised were very important to the Phillies' chances in their first round series against the Brewers: the Brewers' proclivity to mash left-handed pitching and how Cole Hamels, who's seen a big inning increase this year, would hold up against against that lineup in a year when he's thrown a ton of innings. I wasn't terribly positive about either front for the Phillies, but apparently I should have been.

Hamels dominated the Brewers over eight shutout innings today, striking out nine and holding them to only three baserunners. He kept Milwaukee's big bats off balance all afternoon with a nasty changeup that had almost everyone in the Brewers' lineup flailing like a little leaguer. In fact, he was so good that it seemed like Charlie Manuel made a mistake by bringing in Brad Lidge to pitch the ninth when Lidge gave up a run and stranded two more runners before finally striking out Corey Hart to end the game.

After being swept last year, Hamels set a great tone for the Phillies today. The Brewers were thoroughly dominated and tonight they're going to realize that they have to face him again in this series if they want to win it. If he's as good in his next start as he was today, that means the Brewers can't lose to anyone else. The first game of the series is always important to set the tone, but it's even more important in a short series and Cole Hamels gave the Phillies a stranglehold today.

It wasn't hard to see this coming, but it's still disappointing: Ben Sheets conceded Monday that he almost certainly will not pitch in the postseason. He tried to play through pain after an MRI revealed a torn muscle in his pitching elbow in late August but an MRI earlier this week revealed the injury is getting worse. From MLB.com:

"I'm going to keep pushing like it's series-to-series," Sheets said. "But I don't know if that's realistic. I would say I'm out, most likely, unless I can hit. And I can't hit.

"We went aggressive at it," Sheets added. "I tried acupuncture, I tried massage. We tried everything. I tried it, and it didn't work."

Sheets posted a pedestrian 13-9 record, but the Brewers won 18 of his 31 starts this year, thanks largely to his 3.06 ERA, the second-best mark of his career. There's no chance at all this team could have made the playoffs for the first time since 1982 without his contributions, so it's unfortunate he can't help them take the next step.

The timing of the injury couldn't be worse for Sheets on a personal level, as well. He'll be a free agent this winter, and considering he was already battling a reputation for being injury prone, the fact that he'll finish the season on the trainer's table should cost him more than a few dollars. But who knows, maybe this will work out for the Brewers in the end. If enough teams are scared of Sheets' injury history, he just may be enough of a bargain for the Brewers to re-sign him.