Peter Vecsey presents a handful of interesting theories about Don Nelson and the Warriors today. In the span of several paragraphs, he suggests the following theories, all of which need to be taken with a bowling-ball-sized grain of salt:

1. The Warriors are thinking of buying out Nelson rather than risk player mutiny next season;
2. Nelson benched Baron Davis in the pivotal second-to-last game of the season because he was angry Davis "partied" the night before;
3. Nelson benched Davis in a passive aggressive attempt at getting fired so tha he can retire while still collecting his salary;
4. Nelson benched Davis with the Warriors "unspoken blessing" in a passive aggressive attempt to anger Davis enough to opt-out of his contract and leave.
   

Obviously a lot of these theories contradict each other, and even a careful examination of his column makes it difficult to figure out what's based on actual reporting and what's pure conjecture (a frequent problem when it comes to Vecsey). But assuming Nelson is on the way out, it'll be interesting to see if he becomes a candidate for any other job or simply (finally) retires.

Pretty much every team that had even a passing interest in Mike D'Antoni would have to consider Nelson, right? His teams won't play a lot of defense, but they'll score a ton points, put butts in the seats and do wonders for the local mock turtleneck economy. That has to count for something, right?

The contract negotiations between Baron Davis and the Warriors have gotten off to a rocky start. The initial offer has been described as both "insulting" and "practically hurtful" to the team's star, so much so that it's now believed to be a 50-50 proposition whether or not Davis will remain with the Dubs beyond next season.

In fact, the sides were so far apart in what they perceive as Davis' worth that Ramasar brought up the specter of Davis using his opt-out clause to void the final year on his current deal and become an unrestricted free agent as of July 1.

"After sitting down with the Warriors organization (Thursday) regarding Baron's future, I don't know what direction the Warriors are going," Ramasar told the Times.

A source close to Davis said it's now a 50-50 chance that the Warriors' captain ... will not remain beyond next season after various contract offers that were so low as to be practically hurtful.

Some of this is simply standard agent-speak when a negotiation isn't going his client's way, but then again, Baron and/or his agent may have some unrealistic expectations. Tim Kawakami does an excellent job breaking it down, and the short version goes something like this: Baron's under contract for $17.8M next season, a wild overpayment for someone at his age with his skill set. The Warriors aren't going to give him much more than a two year extension beyond that at $8 or $9 million per. So Baron's looking at an offer of a three-year deal (including next year) totaling in the neighborhood of $34M.

Is this an insult? Maybe it is and maybe it isn't. But the Warriors aren't likely to negotiate beyond that point until Baron's opt out date of June 30 has passed. It would be a pretty huge gamble for Baron to opt out and leave almost $18M on the table next season, considering any deal that he could get from another team is likely to pay him substantially less than that. And at this point, it's a gamble that the Warriors don't believe that he'll be willing to take.

By now you've probably heard how "Hollywood" Baron Davis has gone. He's had celebrity friends for a while now, and this past season skipped off to the Sundance Film Festival to promote a documentary he made about growing up around gangs in Los Angeles. So given these connections, Baron was probably at the top of Adam Sandler's list to star with him in this hilarious promo for his new movie, "You Don't Mess With The Zohan," which is a parody of those split-screen playoff spots we've all grown so fond of.

If you told Don Nelson before the season started that the Warriors would win 48 games this year, he'd probably have been ecstatic. After all, it's a six-game improvement from last season and should be enough to secure a No. 5 or 6 seed, right?

Eh, you already know the answer to that: the Warriors are on the outside looking in after finishing two games shy of the "coveted" No. 8 seed. The Warriors capped things off by losing on Wednesday to the Sonics, although by that point it was merely academic as they had already been eliminated from the postseason.

So now, instead of getting excited for the playoffs, Warriors fans must now spend their offseason completely confused as to what in the world their team will look like next year. Nelson told reporters yesterday that he planned on going to Maui for the next six weeks or so before deciding whether he'd coach for one more year or retire. What, other than board shorts and tanning oil, might help him make up his mind?

We were all a bit confused to see Baron Davis sitting on the bench for the entire second half of the Warriors' loss to the Suns, and rightfully so. Even though he only shot 2-13 from the field in the first half and apparently can't defend the pick and roll to save his life, you simply don't bench your team leader in a game you have to have to keep your slim playoff hopes alive. Unless there was another reason to do so.

A little comment from Paul Coro in the Arizona Republic may just tell us the real reason that Baron was benched during that critical contest:

Golden State's Baron Davis was gone. He was benched for the second half by Warriors coach Don Nelson after a 2-for-13 first half and a Sunday night birthday party in the Valley.

"I gave Baron a much-needed rest in the second half," Nelson said.

If there's any truth to this, that Baron was out partying a little too hard the night before the team's last gasp at remaining in the hunt for a playoff spot, then it's absolutely inexcusable. I know there wasn't a huge chance for the Warriors to make the playoffs even if they won out, but there was still a chance. I also know that players stay out late on a regular basis, but with the season on the line, you'd think just this once that Baron would have the sense to get to bed at a decent hour and not overdo it before what is always a high octane game against the Suns.

In what was really just a formality, the Warriors lost in Phoenix last night, officially eliminating them from a spot in the postseason. Denver had effectively done this a night earlier by knocking off the Rockets, but now it's officially a mathematical impossibility for the Warriors to make the playoffs.

It was an interesting loss for the Warriors, considering the fact that in a must-win game, their coach sat the team's best player on the bench for the entire second half. Curious not only because you'd think you would need Baron Davis to get a win in Phoenix, but also strange when you realize that Baron can opt out of his contract this summer to become a free agent. Tim Kawakami wonders if there are issues between Davis and Don Nelson, or if it was just Nellie making a defensive adjustment.

[I wish I ] could be asking Don Nelson and Baron Davis right now what the heck happened tonight and then try to figure out if there will be lasting issues between the two.

Psst: Baron doesn't play the screen-roll well. And gets killed on it. Well, Monta Ellis is awful, so that kind of overshadows BD, but doesn't excuse it.

(I've asked Nelson about both of them a lot this season and he usually is happy to discus Ellis' defensive weaknesses but won't say much about Baron. Tonight he spoke with his actions. I'm assuming.)

Whether Baron's inability to defend the Suns' bread and butter play was the only reason for his benching, we'll never know. What we do know is that this is a huge summer for the Warriors. Baron can opt out (though I can't imagine him leaving $17M on the table), Monta and Biedrins are free agents, and Nellie might not be back either. Changes are afoot for this franchise, and when all is said and done, they might be for the worse, not the better.

Denver wrapped up a fairly stout home victory over the Rockets this evening, all but assuring the Nuggets' place in the Western Conference playoffs. Golden State has to pray for an improbable Grizzlies victory over the Nugs on Wednesday to stay alive ... which means the Warriors are basically dead (and possibly buried).

Tracy McGrady and Carmelo Anthony were able to bother each other all night, as Shane Battier sat out. But Houston's backcourt couldn't dream of containing Allen Iverson, who dropped 33 points on 20 shots with 7 assists. J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza also had big nights off the bench, which is a good sign as Denver's going to need all hands on deck to survive the first round against the Lakers, Hornets, or Spurs.

Golden State lost this thing on Thursday, as everyone had already assumed. A perfect storm of sorts yesterday seemed to give the Warriors new hope this morning, but it was all a mirage. It's too bad, because the Dubs deserve it a lot more than a few Eastern teams.

Golden State did their business against the Clippers, but Denver couldn't execute their own in Utah. That means the squads are even in the ledger, though Denver retains the tiebreaker. The Warriors need Houston to beat Denver (in Denver) today to retain hope; Golden State also needs to win its last two against Phoenix and Seattle, of course.

The Warriors got another slice of help last night -- New Orleans lost in Sacramento, so Houston has something to play for today: the Rockets still have a shot at the Southwest Division title and the #1 seed. A Rockets win and Lakers loss to San Antonio today would put Houston and the Spurs in a tie with New Orleans for the top seed, with L.A. a half-game back. If the Lakers beat the Spurs, Houston would be in good position for the #2 seed, and in decent shape for the #1 seed.

There's more. A Houston win over Denver today also almost assuredly relegates Phoenix to the #6 seed ... which would limit the importance of Monday's game against Golden State ... which could lead to "Sean Marks, starting center." It's a stretch, but hey -- the Warriors need stretches.

The clock's winding down on Golden State, and as we've known since last fall, a summer of myriad decisions has arrived for the Warriors. Baron Davis can become a free agent. Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins are free agents. The club picked up Don Nelson's $5 million option to coach in 2008-09 ... but he hasn't yet indicated whether he'll be back. The three-headed bench monster that is Pietbarnesubuiketrus can fly away. Patrick "The Notorious P.O.B." O'Bryant is a goner. Stephen Jackson is considering running for Congress. The uncertainty is almost unsettling.

Nelson's decision could affect the lot of others. A Nellie retirement could lead to big contracts for Ellis and Biedrins (likely to happen either way), which would restrict Golden State's desire/ability to extend Boom long term to big dollars. (Monta and Beans are both 22, Baron turns 29 today. Happy birthday, Boom.) Add in that first-timer Keith Smart would likely take over for Nellie, as well as the missed playoffs this year and the proposed ascension of Portland ... the bright Oracle crowds don't look like a good bet for May 2009, do they? Baron's not going to get $15 million anywhere. But he could certainly opt out and try, a decision made easier if fun-lovin' Nellie's not around.

If Nellie's not here, and Baron's not here ... why on Earth would Jackson stick around? Jack's older than Baron and even further into the "veteran on a good team -- not a rebuilder" niche. After a rather remarkable 18-month run in Oaktown, suitors will pop up for Jack in the trade market. If Chris Mullin thinks he isn't a fit with a less competitive but young and fierce core, it wouldn't be surprising to see him shopped.

In all likelihood, this won't come to pass. Baron's unlikely to opt out (especially with Gilbert Arenas floating around), and Golden State can pay Ellis and Biedrins whatever they please as they are both restricted free agents. This very core (minus either Barnes or Pietrus, or both) could return, and Nelson could give it one more effort. But Nellie's an unpredictable guy. He's the domino, so we'll be watching his comments until he announces a decision.

Apologies for beating this horse so mercilessly, so relentlessly ... but Golden State, at 47-32, is the last hope to snare an up-for-grabs playoff spot in the West. Back East, the last floating contender is Indiana, who after tonight's home loss to the Charlotte F. Bobcats stands at 35-45. This is unbelievable.

Atlanta lost in Boston, so Indiana lives another night. They need to sweep Washington and New York on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. They also need Atlanta to lose to Orlando and Miami on Tuesday and Wednesday. It's hard to blame the Hawks for not being able to clinch Saturday night against the Celtics -- The Big Three did play for three quarters. Of course, Atlanta was tied after those three quarters ... and were outscored by 10 in the fourth with Sam Cassell doing the damage.

Don Nelson let some "this isn't fair" sentiment slip after his team's loss to Denver on Thursday. It sounded like sour grapes then, but he's completely right: this is bull. God bless Atlanta for finally finding a way into the postseason, but they'd be in 12th place in the West. Golden State would be fourth in the East. Something's gotta give.