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NBA Draft Crystal Ballin': Phoenix Suns

Crystal Ballin' takes a team-by-team look at what should, could, and probably will happen in the June 26th NBA Draft.

The Suns were arguably the biggest disappointment of the post-season, when you consider the fact that the blockbuster deal for Shaquille O'Neal resulted in just five first round playoff games. With a new coach and rumors of more roster shake-ups, this is a team in search of an identity.

Picks: #15, #48.

Needs:
A general manager whose intent isn't to destroy the team. Ohhhh, on the court needs. Right. A backup point guard to run the team when Nash is on the sidelines, and believe it or not, one more big to back up Shaq and Amare.

Best case scenario: That Roy Hibbert or Chris Douglas-Roberts would drop into their lap. Either of those guys would likely crack the rotation immediately.

Is T.J. Ford the Heir of Nash?

Rumors are a dime twelve dozen this time of year, but the Arizona Republic has published this morning a dazzling little slice of speculation: the Suns have considered sending Boris Diaw to Toronto in exchange for T.J. Ford and the #17 pick.

Diaw and Leandro Barbosa are the Suns on the block, and talk out of Steve Kerr's breath has indicated Phoenix wants another first-rounder or a higher pick than their current 15th selection. Most rumors to date have Barbosa being given away -- a problematic endeavor considering Leandrinho's the closest thing to a back-up point the Suns have got. And, as we've repeated in each of the past five summers: Steve Nash isn't getting any younger.

That's what makes the rumored Ford deal so entrancing: T.J. won't bristle behind Nash the way he did backing up Jose Calderon, and he's so young (25) that he's a budding heir who can learn from (one of) the best. Meanwhile, Diaw could be a major upgrade from the Jamario Moon-Jason Kapono-Joey Graham gauntlet which manned the small forward slot last season.

Armed with #15, #17 and Barbosa, Phoenix would still be well-poised to slide up into the top 10. New York needs bodies galore -- wouldn't the #6 pick for a Sixth Man of the Year and two solid mid-first choices do wonders?

Surprise! NJ Would Like to Shake Things Up

Every May-June-July-August, there are somewhere between 15 and 29 NBA teams who seek significant improvement. Most lottery teams qualify as candidates, traditionally joined by first-round flame-outs (Dallas, Toronto) and soon-to-be has-beens (Phoenix, Cleveland).

Unsurprisingly, the Nets -- wildly uneven in the roster, wildly uneven in the win-loss ledger -- seek significant improvement. How are they going about it? Sending Jigga to Secaucus is part of the plan; apparently, trading for someone/everyone completes the manual. Bravado beat writer Dave D'Alessandro of the Newark Star-Ledger passes on these rumors.
They have made some cursory inquiries with Phoenix (about Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa), more substantive discussions with Toronto (about Andrea Bargnani), and there has been some dialogue with Denver about Carmelo Anthony.
M. Moore discussed the wild 'Melo rumor Monday when it broke by the hand of The Bergen Record's Al Iannazzone (who insisted NJ was near a deal for Andres Nocioni in January). That a second reporter on the ground confirms the existence of two-party talks bolsters the imagination. The inclusion of other wildly disparate talents (Barbosa? Il Mago? whaa?) sets the ray to WTF.

A blockbuster return seems to depend wholly on a top-3 victory in tonight's draft lottery, a victory NJ is quite unlikely to actually receive. Bargnani, Diaw -- this tier of players, still confounding, seems more in line with reality for Rod Thorn.

Look at the Losers: Phoenix Suns


There's so much that's already been said. But just to recap: responding to the Western Conference Arms Race, the Suns gave up Shawn Marion and his potential cap-freeing opt-out for Shaquille O'Neal and his potential cap-killing $20 million contract next year. The hope (read: realigning of philosophical differences) from both Steve Kerr and Mike D'Antoni was that Shaq would provide defense and turn Amare Stoudemire into a freak of nature. The second happened, and the Suns actually played well.

How They Got to the Dance: By closing out the season 15-5. Bear in mind that this was immediately after the pro-Shaq trade folks had jumped off the bandwagon and well after the haters had gotten their public laughs in. Which is why their matchup against the Spurs seemed like the greatest first round set of all time. The Suns were better down the stretch than we will remember, folks.

5 Things to Keep an Eye on: Suns at Spurs, Game 5

In another of our continuing series, five things to keep an eye out for tonight in the Suns-Spurs game tonight.

1. What You Currently Feel Is The Wall Against Your Back. Yes, Still: Okay, let's get this out of the way. I don't think there's any way the Suns beat the Spurs tonight. We've seen San Antonio suck the life out of too many teams, in too many series, to believe they'll even allow the possibility of something exciting to happen. But since I don't want this column to read just about keeping an eye on how many empty seats there are in San Antonio (and there will probably be a few, knowing this crowd), I'll humor the idea. The Suns are against the wall, again. They've been here many times this season, and every time, they've responded. But they also responded last game, and back to back responses is a whole other matter. Especially in San Antonio, versus an embarrassed Spurs club. If the Suns want to win, they can't hold anything back. It all has to be on the floor. No other option. For a Suns team that's known to coast, we'll see if they can hold a consistent energy.

2. Full French > Half-Hill?: The rave on the internet this week is about how Mike D'Antoni finally wised up and started Boris Diaw, and how he's the new savior of the Suns. I got news for you. I'm not buying it. It's fine that Diaw got some good numbers in a blowout game in Game 4. And it's fine that the Spurs let him back down whatever small forward was guarding him in the post. But he won't find that tonight. He's going to find Tim Duncan. At home. Angry. Unless Boris fully embraces the 3, he can't be effective. And even if he does, everyone was so impressed with him guarding Tony Parker. But who guards Manu Ginobili? You really think both of them are going to have back to back bad games? Diaw is not the answer. Someone who can effectively play consistently is.

Boris Diaw as Savior



If Phoenix has any shot of pulling this off (my friend log5 -- discussed Saturday -- places the probability at 11%), Boris Diaw figures to continue in a leading role. Boom Boom had a near triple-double (20 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists) and denied his buddy Tony Parker anything easy. He was as physically belligerent as any time since 2006, which is saying quite a bit if you remember his drunken-appearing bout with 20 extra pounds a November ago.

Grant Hill could look fit as a banjo Tuesday morning and there's no way Mike D'Antoni should activate him. Without besmirching Hill's smile, the guy murdered Diaw (and thus the Suns) through three games. Relegation murders Diaw's soul, and the murder of Diaw's soul is the murder of Diaw's game (as it is with numerous swing-y talismen -- ask Josh Howard, who has somehow been castrated [karma?] by the Hornets). At Atlanta 2005, France 2007 and Phoenix 2007 have proven, Boris is only Boris when Boris can fully be Boris; Sunday's Game 4 was the first time this postseason that happened. (J.A. Adande more concretely called him a "rabid pitbull," which fits.)

Boris is not the best (that's Amare), most important (Mr. Nash), or most valuable (pick 'em) Sun. Of course the Suns needs Stoudemire, Nash and Shaq to play well to continue the dream. That's understood by my neighbor's Doberman. But they also need continued irrational exuberance from Boom Boom. They need Diaw to be his unfortunately-rare unbelievable Marion-meets-Pippen peak self to pull this off. Can he do it? If there's a (French) God (who wears purple and orange).

Phoenix Fights Back: We Almost Maybe Kind-of Have a Series


34-13 is all you need to know about the whoopin' that the Phoenix Suns put on the San Antonio Spurs Sunday afternoon. That was the score after the first half, and even Gregg Popovich acknowledged that it was not so much what the Spurs weren't doing as it was what the Suns were doing. That would be getting ridiculously aggressive and, to use the classic boxing analogy, punching the Spurs hard enough that they didn't get back up and crawl into the ring again.

It reminded me a lot of the Carolina - Kansas Final Four game, honestly, only if Tim Duncan had freaky bug-eyes and an unstoppable Will.

The Suns won 105-86 and the general consensus at the NBA 'Haus is that if there is one team that has a shot at pulling off a comeback down 3-0 to the defending NBA champions, it's these Phoenix Suns. Oh, and by "consensus", I think I actually mean "a few of us delusional enough to hope that evil won't kill good this week."

5 Things to Keep an Eye on: Spurs at Suns, Game 4

In another of our continuing series, five things to keep an eye out for tonight in the Spurs-Suns game today.


1. This Ain't Baseball: 3-0 is fine in baseball. It's got the capability to wrestle momentum in a single inning. It's got a much more random set of variables. In basketball, it comes down to matchups. Your five guys versus my five guys. And the Spurs five guys have been phenomenally better than the Suns' five guys in this series. There's a reason the 3-0 deficit is considered a death knell. The question today is simply how much pride this Phoenix team has. While it might be better to end the Suns' fans misery and get the San Antonio Spurs' slow killfest off of national television, to get swept in the first round would be pretty embarrassing for a team that was supposed to contend for a title. Of course, losing 4-1 won't be much more dignified.

2. Which One Goes Off: Game 1: Tim Duncan. Game 2: Manu Ginobili. Game 3: Tony Parker. How about Game 4: Fabricio Oberto? Or Bruce Bowen? Which player for the Spurs are the Suns going to let torch them this time? The Suns have been completely unable to do anything defensively, and now they're turning on their coach. Shaquille O'Neal can't defend Parker's speed or Duncan's range. Nash can't keep up with Parker and can't rotate effectively to cover the shooters. And Amare always seems to make the wrong decision in key situations. That's to say nothing of the offensive and defensive liabilities that are Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw, despite their pleasant boxscore. Maybe it's Jacque Vaughn day in Phoenix.

5 Things to Keep an Eye on: Suns at Spurs, Game 2

In another of our continuing series, five things to keep an eye out for tonight in the Suns at Spurs, Game 2 tonight.

1. Down In A Hole: It's only one game, but it feels like more, doesn't it? I mean, the Suns had the Spurs on the brink, against the wall, down 16, on the road. They weathered the come back and were ahead. Finley hadn't been that hot. Boom. Okay, that's fine. Up again in overtime. No problem. As long as Tim Duncan doesn't hit a three ... Boom. Okay, again, they're tougher than that this year. Big shot by Nash. As long as they don't let Manu just drive to the hole ... game. There's no way the Suns can have woken up the last two days and felt anything but sick with the reality that there's just no way to beat these guys. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Suns come out flat and disheartened. They're turning into a Cure song at this point.

2. As The Groin Turns: Well, Manu's groin is fine. Grant Hill? Not so much. Hill tweaked it in game 1, and that was a primary reason why Manu Ginobili went left and scored on the same play about a million times in the last three minutes. It's pretty unlikely that Hill's going to be considerably better, and that means Ginobili may be in line for a huge game. The Suns lack a true shut-down man on him, with Raja Bell not 100%, Leandro Barbosa too small, and Boris Diaw too slow. And they could trap, but that of course would mean waving a giant flag that reads "Please score on us, tiny/old wing men!"

Where Tim Duncan Hitting His First Three Pointer of the Season for Double OT Happens


Forget LeBron James and the how many ever thousand of people that filled Quicken Loans Arena with yellow t-shirts this afternoon. The real witnessing got done by you, me and anyone else who watched San Antonio and Phoenix battle to the [near] death in what was arguably the best game of the 2008 NBA basketball season.

So far.

The only downside of the double overtime thriller that saw four different buzzer (or near buzzer) beaters was that it proved Stephen A. Smith's point (yes, Jalen, this is a rivalry). The first game of what promises to be a hard fought series was everything it was billed up to be -- the best first round series ever.

Phoenix drew first blood and took an eight point lead into halftime, after leading upwards of 12 in the second quarter. But as is typical, the defending champs stormed back on the heels of a 28 point fourth quarter, and when the AT&T exploded after they tied it up with 2:14 to go in the game, it was obvious something crazy was going to happen at the end. But that was even underestimating it.
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