From The Windup is FanHouse's daily, extended look at a particular portion of America's pastime.
While discussing the Cy Young on Sunday night, Joe Morgan said, predictably, that it was "Brandon Webb's to lose". In fairness, he's probably right. But ... I don't really think he should be. See, the Cy Young is all about perception.
Headshots via Getty Images
Well, not all about perception, but there's a pretty hefty chunk of voting attribution distributed towards the feeling of performance, rather than the strictly statistical discussion of how various pitchers have excelled throughout the season.
If that wasn't the case, then Randy Johnson would have won the Cy Young in 2004, when he very clearly outperformed Roger Clemens on the mound.
In an "ideal" world, there would be someone stuck squarely in the upper left quadrant above -- a pitcher with obviously dominant stats that were publicly recognized (because his team didn't stink). That rarely happens, though, and this year's Cy Young race is, when you really start breaking it down, one of the most intriguing we've seen in a few years.
After all, we have the heavy favorite in Webb, the best pitcher in the National League in Tim Lincecum, the discussion incumbent (Johan Santana), the early season surprise (Edinson Volquez) and a few darkhorses in Danny Haren and Ryan Dempster, the latter which is nothing short of shocking.
See, it's perception that led smart baseball guru types Bill James and Rob Neyer to create a formula entirely devoted to predicting the Cy Young balloting. Not "should win" mind you, but "will win" based entirely on what the voters tend to look for in their winner.
As you can see from the list, Salomon Torres is the eighth most likely pitcher to win the CY. I'm willing to bet he won't get any votes come the end of the year. But a guy who deserves some votes, or at least some Award-worthy buzz, for what he's done since the beginning of July, is CC Sabathia.
While discussing the Cy Young on Sunday night, Joe Morgan said, predictably, that it was "Brandon Webb's to lose". In fairness, he's probably right. But ... I don't really think he should be. See, the Cy Young is all about perception.
Headshots via Getty Images
Well, not all about perception, but there's a pretty hefty chunk of voting attribution distributed towards the feeling of performance, rather than the strictly statistical discussion of how various pitchers have excelled throughout the season.
If that wasn't the case, then Randy Johnson would have won the Cy Young in 2004, when he very clearly outperformed Roger Clemens on the mound.
In an "ideal" world, there would be someone stuck squarely in the upper left quadrant above -- a pitcher with obviously dominant stats that were publicly recognized (because his team didn't stink). That rarely happens, though, and this year's Cy Young race is, when you really start breaking it down, one of the most intriguing we've seen in a few years.
After all, we have the heavy favorite in Webb, the best pitcher in the National League in Tim Lincecum, the discussion incumbent (Johan Santana), the early season surprise (Edinson Volquez) and a few darkhorses in Danny Haren and Ryan Dempster, the latter which is nothing short of shocking.
See, it's perception that led smart baseball guru types Bill James and Rob Neyer to create a formula entirely devoted to predicting the Cy Young balloting. Not "should win" mind you, but "will win" based entirely on what the voters tend to look for in their winner.
As you can see from the list, Salomon Torres is the eighth most likely pitcher to win the CY. I'm willing to bet he won't get any votes come the end of the year. But a guy who deserves some votes, or at least some Award-worthy buzz, for what he's done since the beginning of July, is CC Sabathia.
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