Posts tagged FantasyNFLDraft2008 at FanHouse - AOL Sports Blog

The Word:

Johnson Shuffles Backfield in Music City

Fantasy FanHouse will be chiming in throughout the NFL draft with fantasy analysis of each fantasy relevant pick.

Apparently Jeff Fisher was feeling like his backfield was bare with the departure of the unexciting Chris Brown, because -- for the third year in a row -- the Titans have selected a running back early in their draft. Now Fisher has Chris Johnson at his disposal along with LenDale White and Chris Henry.

Johnson's a poor-man's Reggie Bush. He can bang like an outside the tackles tailback, but catch passes out of the backfield as well. His value initially will be as a third down back, but he has the explosiveness that could help him develop into much more as soon as 2008. He's the home run hitter that White and Henry are not with his reported 4.25 40 speed.

Fantasy Spin:

- White: He's the inside bruiser, so short yardage and those lame first down "let's establish the run now" handoffs right up the middle are about all she wrote for the big man. You can't count on him for any better than your third fantasy back, because his value will stem strictly from short-yardage TDs. I wouldn't even count on him for that, as the lack of confidence in him carrying the load is evident with the past two years' drafts.

Pittsburgh Steals Rashard Mendenhall

Fantasy FanHouse will be chiming in throughout the NFL draft with fantasy analysis of each fantasy relevant pick.

Wow. I mean, just wow. Rashard Mendenhall kind of plummeted in the draft didn't he? And when he landed right in Mike Tomlin's lap, the Pittsburgh head coach scooped him up. And it was a very smart move.

Willie Parker is obviously the starter for the Steelers, but there have always been concerns about his ability to bash between the tackles, even when he was racking up huge seasons, yardage-wise. Now the Steelers won't have to face those questions as much, because Mendenhall will serve as a bruising back that will compliment Parker perfectly.

Single season leagues are probably going to wait and take Mendenhall, because Parker is a pretty solid first rounder. However, I tend to think he's got sleeper written all over him because of Parker's injury history and his different style of running. If you like to gamble, you're going to be thinking about this guy in the early teens during drafts, and certainly, he's a must have handcuff for Parker.

In terms of dynasty leagues, I think Mendenhall has to be at or near the top of drafts. He's a brusing, talented runner and he's landed in a situation where the offensive line has always been stressed. Is Parker the long term answer for Pittsburgh? At least for the next two years because of his contract. But I'd put my money on Mendenhall being the guy you will want long term. And if that's the case, he may end up being the most valuable guy in this draft when we look back on things in about three to four years.

Fantasy Spin: Felix Jones The Next Julius?

Fantasy FanHouse will be chiming in throughout the NFL draft with fantasy analysis of each fantasy relevant pick.

The Cowboys, out of the Bill Parcells regime, let Julius Jones go after Marion Barber, III, had become their elite running back. And with good reason. Now, it appears the speedy Felix Jones will be taking his spot as the change-of-pace, home-run type back in the Cowboys offense.

It might be tough for Jones to actually be fantasy relevant next year. Because of MB3's talent, and status as goalline back, Jones will probably only be able to accrue fantasy points for owners in 2008 by breaking off long runs when he's given touches. It still seems likely that he will get at least 10 carries a game though, which could make him valuable. For single league purposes, expect to only draft Jones in the late rounds as a handcuff or upside bench pick, barring a holdout by Barber.

Keeper leagues will be faced with a different quandry though. It seems unlikely that the Cowboys would want to let Barber walk, so Jones may struggle to be really relevant, really quickly. If that's case, meaning Barber stays in Dallas, Jones has to be considered at best the fourth, maybe fifth best fantasy running back option taken so far in the first round (behind Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall and possibly Chris Johnson) so far.

Fantasy Spin: Panthers Spice Draft Up By Taking Jonathan Stewart

Fantasy FanHouse will be chiming in throughout the NFL draft with fantasy analysis of each fantasy relevant pick.

This was not what a lot of people thought would happen. I think Ryan Clady was the pick if the Broncos hadn't grabbed him, but Fox and Hurney probably didn't like Otah enough to pull the trigger there. This is also a deep draft for offensive linemen, so that taking Rashard Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart here wouldn't be out of the question. Unlike, say, taking a quarterback, as many of the draft "experts" seemed to think the Cats might do.

From a fantasy perspective, Stewart is going to be huge sleeper material. Most owners are going to assume -- barring a training camp/pre-season that sees Stewart win the starting job -- that DeAngelo Williams will be the go to guy in Charlotte and a beasty RB2 for fantasy leagues. I don't think it's that simple.

In fact, I think Stewart may end up being the most valuable back out of the two. Stewart is a big, bruising runner who dropped because of issues with turf toe. And if you recall the Panthers teams of a few years ago, with Stephen Davis, you will remember that John Fox absolutely loves to pound the rock. DeShaun Foster and Williams did not allow him to do that. Stewart will.

McFadden to the Front of Crowded Backfield

Fantasy FanHouse will be chiming in throughout the NFL draft with fantasy analysis of each fantasy relevant pick.

So the Raiders made sure that just because they have other viable options they were not going to make the same mistake six teams made last year in passing on a franchise/game-breaking running back. While I'm not suggesting Darren McFadden is Adrian Peterson reincarnate, I am suggesting that it would have been stupid to let McFadden slide all the way down to seven this year after seeing the impact Peterson had as a rook.

So what is the fantasy fallout? Well, first things first ... there is no way the Raiders carry all these running backs. They have trading chips, but the question now becomes if they can trade any of the dudes for something they want before having to simply cut a couple.

-Justin Fargas has agreed to a new contract, but his value will likely never be higher for teams searching for a running back.

-Dominic Rhodes was a costly free agent signing last off-season and did not do anything to come close to expectations of the contract. He did restructure, though, and figured to play as Fargas' backup before this draft pick.

-Lamont Jordan was likely on his way to receiving his walking papers anyway, and now that McFadden is on board he's definitely going to be out of work.

-Michael Bush was a monster in college, but hasn't played in the NFL -- he was recovering from injury last year and proclaims himself 100% currently.

Fantasy Spin: Matt Ryan Goes to the Falcons

Fantasy FanHouse will be chiming in throughout the NFL draft with fantasy analysis of each fantasy relevant pick.

I'm of the opinion that Matt Ryan is not a franchise quarterback, no matter how much Mel Kiper will justify his 19 interceptions by saying he was "coming from behind." Ryan will, however, be given the reigns in Atlanta next season. He might not start right away -- the Falcons still have Joey Harrington and Chris Redman -- but he'll be taking snaps by week six.

That doesn't necessarily mean that he will be fantasy relevant this year. Well, actually, he'll be relevant, but he will not be worth much for single season leagues. At the very best in a one year league he will be a QB2 option, and that's only for the owner who prefers to take a stud QB early and then wait a long time for a backup. Still, even if you're that type of owner, Ryan is a lower end option at best.

For dynasty/keeper purposes, Ryan certainly has a lot more appeal. He would not be my first draft choice for a keeper league though -- I'd rather spend that on Darren McFadden or Rashard Mendenhall -- but deeper leagues are obviously going to want to jump on Ryan. But I'm not entirely sold, personally. On the other hand, there are a lot of owners who will want to get all up on the Matty Ice hype. If that's the case, I would recommend using him as trade bait. If you get stuck in the keeper draft position of having to draft him though, you could certainly be worse at quarterback.
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