Posts tagged HomerBailey at FanHouse

With Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez making impressive debuts for the Reds this year, last year's Savior of the Reds Rotation has kind of fallen by the wayside. I'm talking about Homer Bailey, of course, who had a disappointing stint with the Reds last year and has continued to underwhelm in AAA this year. Still, with the disabling of Josh Fogg earlier this week, the Reds needed someone to fill in the rotation and Bailey got the call.

With his start this afternoon, he mostly picked up where he left off last year. He walked four hitters against just one strikeout in six and a third innings, giving up five runs (two earned) on four hits. The walks were what troubled him last year and so it's not a terribly great sign to see him walking four in his 2008 Reds' debut, even if two game on the last two hitters he faced.

If you're looking for encouraging signs from this outing, he did breeze through four innings pretty easily and the unearned runs were caused by two separate errors by the Reds. Still, according to the Pitch FX he topped out at around 88 mph, which seems awfully low for a guy billed as a fireballer. It looks like there's a reason Cueto and Volquez have passed him as prospects in the Reds' organization.

On Deck is FanHouse's look at the day's most intriguing baseball matchups

Philadelphia Phillies (35-26) vs. Cincinnati Reds (29-31) - 1:05PM Est.

You can't blame the Reds for trying to strike while the iron is hot, especially given the way that Jay Bruce has lit the world up since making his debut with the big league ball club last week, and they'll hope that success carries over to the pitcher's mound as well. Today the Reds will be handing the ball to Homer Bailey as they just called him up from Louisville and they're hoping he'll do a lot better in his second tour of duty.

Bailey was supposed to be Edinson Volquez when the Reds brought him up last season, and though he showed some signs of why the Reds are so high on him, his first season in the Majors wasn't that great.

He'll look to get his career started this afternoon against one of the most potent offenses in all of baseball.

Oh, and there's the whole Ken Griffey Jr. looking for homer # 600 as well.

It's an odd time when the biggest newsmakers of the week are rookies -- generally that happens in the second half, or they at least wait until late June. But not this week. A pair of rooks massacred the media with all of the hype surrounding their major league debuts.

Jay Bruce, OF, CIN -- Cincinnati fans rejoice! You now see why your GM and manager kept him in Triple-A so long. Whatever. The Reds are actually heating up. I'm still sticking by my sell in single leagues just because there's absolutely no chance he keeps up his current pace. (Yes, I do know who Ryan Braun is.) Still though, this guy should be owned and starting right now.

Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD -- The other "savior" type figure in the bigs right now, Kershaw looked good -- not great -- in his debut and "not so great" in his second and third outings. But hey, he's young, and besides, Cole Hamels gave up four earned runs in his second start too (and didn't really get dialed until later in the summer his first year).

Homer Bailey, SP, CIN -- Good week to be a Red, no? Homer got called early this week and started on Thursday. Is he hyped right now? Um, not particularly, considering his previous struggles. But you should still go snatch him up -- if/when he starts dealing you can sling him for high value. If he doesn't, just leave him on your bench and ride out the rough times. He's still young.

When I wrote last week that Homer Bailey had a shot to get to the bigs in mid-July, I didn't foresee the injury to Josh Fogg. Hopefully you saw that and added him before the news of his recall broke today, because he's a very solid option in fantasyland. Last year he was added to the Reds with much fanfare and things didn't go particularly as planned. He did come through with a 4-2 record, but the 5.76 ERA was bad as was the 1.57 WHIP.

Things are different now. First of all, according to his triple-A manager, Rick Sweet, he's more mature. He's still only 22, but the second reason I think it's going to be different this time is that the complexion of the expectations and hype surrounding him are a complete 180 from last year at this time. The difference -- no, it's most certainly not the new manager in Cincy -- is that there are two other hyped young arms already establishing themselves in the rotation and one uber-prospect recently inserted into a lineup that already contained a rookie masher. Yes, I believe the hype surrounding Homer this time around is significantly lower because of the presence of Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto.

With the added abilities of several largely hyped youngsters around Bailey, he no longer has to shoulder the load of the franchise future by himself, thus the pressure he puts on himself is lower.

Verdict: I'd be careful about having him activated for his matchup this week against the red hot Phillies. After that, though, I'd feel comfortable ranking him right alongside Cueto -- a youngster who has his ups and downs but overall provides the ability to rack up points for the long haul.

Remember all the craze for Homer Bailey last year? It's weird because you rarely hear the hype on him anymore, and he's only 22. The Reds obviously think they tried to bring him aboard too early in his professional career last season, because they are running out the likes of Matt Belisle and Josh Fogg instead of letting Bailey take his lumps in the show. It makes sense, I mean, he had only 64 career minor league starts before this season.

So far this year he's been about the same command-wise as last year in the minors. In 66 2/3 innings he's struck out 54 and walked 29. The walks were the problem in the bigs last year, so the Reds would still like them to come down some more. His ERA (4.05) and WHIP (1.38) are far from impressive, either.

Verdict: I'd still stash him for help come mid-July on. He'll get things figured out soon and once the Reds realize they are out of race they'll start running out their future rotation. Rank him behind sure-things like Max Scherzer and ahead of injury risk gambles like Curt Schilling.

After the jump we'll check out a few others currently toiling in the minors.

We're five full days deep in baseball and there's been a lot of action. In order to make the proper roster moves and know what to look for when you begin trade negotiations, it helps to understand the perceived value shifts that happen each week. So that's when we bust out the complex algorithms and determine who's up and who's down.

Ben Sheets -- Sheets looked great against the Cubs, engaging in a pitcher's duel against Carlos Zambrano, and even pitching post-rain delay; actually looking sharper. Sheets has a legitimate shot at the Cy Young and is a number one fantasy ace if he can avoid the injuries that have plagued him in the past.

Or, alternately: blahblahblahblah If he can stay healthy blahblahblahblah. I actually love Sheets but objectively he has to be considered a sell high, especially if he pieces together a few more of these starts. And considering Ned Yost seems unconcerned about his injury history.
Rich Harden -- See above.
Brian Bannister -- He absolutely shut down the Tigers. He won't overpower anyone but he's smart as hell and will get wins with nice ratios this season.

We here at the MLB FanHouse have decided to take a more vigilant stance on idiotic things written by the media about baseball this year. We're not on an FJM-style seek-and-destroy mission, but we do want to point out things that are just painfully stupid and why they are that way. So thank you, Paul Daughterty of the Cincinnati Enquirer, for giving me something to do this afternoon.

It always amuses when fans defend heart-of-the-order hitters by pointing to their on-base percentage. Wow, look at all those walks.

Unless they're intentional walks, or the big boppers are being pitched around, walks aren't what you want from players hitting third through sixth. You want them up there smart-hacking.

**Ahem** ON-BASE PERCENTAGE MEASURES WALKS AND HITS. I swear to everything that I hold holy, so long as I own a laptop, that I make it my personal crusade to make southern Ohio understand this. No one in their right mind wants Ichiro and his .396 OBP and his .431 slugging percentage hitting cleanup. That's right, Paul, slug-ging per-cen-tage. A measure of a hitters' power at the plate. Is Adam Dunn a good cleanup hitter because he gets on base 38% of the time? No, he's a good cleanup hitter because he does that AND hits 40 homers and slugs in the mid-.500s.

More righteous indignation after the jump (lots more, actually ... I'm pretty worked up about this thing).

Alternately: A Fogg Descends Upon Cincinnati or Leading the Reds Out of the Fogg or any of the other 100 jokes about Josh Fogg's name that are so hacky and yet so very fun to make.

All winter, the Reds' tried their hardest to land some kind of veteran arm to bolster their pitching staff. They were at one point considered leaders for Eric Bedard's service and more recently, they've been rumored to be involved with the fire-selling A's in talks for Joe Blanton. Luckily, the good residents of Cincinnati don't have to worry about an inexperienced rotation any more because the Reds have found a solution: Dragon Slayer Josh Fogg!

Being a Pirate fan, I like to joke about Fogg as much as anyone, but his career stats show that he's a pretty average pitcher, and that's a steal for $1 million these days. He did have an impressive run with the rest of the Rockies last October, but the Reds have done well to not pay an increased price for that run and add a guy that can eat innings at the bottom of a rotation or fill space in the pen.

The real question is, of course, how Dusty Baker will handle his new veteran acquisition. There's not really any reason for Fogg to be in the Reds' rotation over Homer Bailey or Edinson Volquez, though I suppose there's a chance both of them could start the year in AAA. Given Baker's history with young arms, that's probably not the worst thing in the world either.

Things to watch for in 2008 is, well, FanHouse's attempt to keep track of what's worth keeping your eye on as we roll into the 2008 season, be it good, bad, or ugly.

You'd be forgiven for thinking that every good young player in baseball was a member of the Red Sox or Yankees. All of the hemming and hawing associated with the Johan Santana trade was about how the two teams didn't want to give up Joba Chamberlain, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy because of how bright a future they had ahead of them. Well, as the Mets package made clear, there are good young players on other teams. Here's a quick primer on potential Rookie of the Year winners.

Evan Longoria - It's fitting that Longoria will never play for a satanically associated club because his talent is a gift from the heavens. He's going to hit for average, power, draw walks and play sound defense that will be a cornerstone of the first Tampa team to ever reach .500, be it this year or in the next few. And no, he's not Tony Parker's brother-in-law.

Jay Bruce - The name most often associated with Bruce is Larry Walker. Since he plays for the Reds he'll be putting up those numbers at sea level, which should make him a strong candidate for awards as a rookie and well beyond.

The Reds have been trying all off-season to upgrade their starting rotation. That seems like a pretty good idea since they don't have much experience behind Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Matt Belisle. Also, it seems like a pretty good idea because Matt Belisle is their #3 starter. They've been after Erik Bedard since the season ended, though their trade of Josh Hamilton for Edinson Volquez seems to have been the end of that pursuit. Now GM Wayne Krivsky appears ready to dive into the scrap heap. When asked about adding another starter he said:

"Yeah, I am," he said. "We'll see. We're still having conversations with a lot of people. It's the same as it's been."

Krivsky will not name names. But it's believed that the Reds have been in contact with right-hander Josh Fogg.

"I'm not going to confirm that," Krivsky said.

Josh Fogg! Oh yeah, now that's the cure for what ails ya. I understand wanting to add another veteran arm to the rotation, but at the same time what do Volquez and Homer Bailey have left to prove in AAA? If they add someone like Fogg to the rotation, there won't be room in the big league rotation for both of them and one will likely start the year back in the minors. I suppose the Reds think they have a chance in 2008 after the whole NL Central had back-to-back down years, but they should consider that their best way to contend is a lights out rotation where Bailey and Volquez step up behind Harang and Arroyo.