Posts tagged MelKiper at FanHouse - AOL Sports Blog

Curtis Painter: coming to an incredibly disappointed NFL city near you.

College football fans outside of Boston were by in large puzzled by the NFL's lofty opinion of 61st-rated passer Matt Ryan, the third pick in the NFL draft. Why Ryan went so high will be a mystery until such time as he proves himself Not Rick Mirer or Not Joey Harrington, but at least Ryan's team played pretty well and, you know, beat some teams that weren't repugnant.

The same cannot be said for Mel Kiper's top-rated senior quarterback for the 2009 NFL draft, Missouri's Chase Dan-- wait... what? CURTIS PAINTER?

10. Curtis Painter, QB, Purdue (6-3½, 225)
He's an impressive pure thrower, but what I liked about Painter's junior season was his improved game management. In 2006, Painter threw 22 touchdowns, but he also had 19 interceptions. Last season, he threw 29 touchdowns but had only 11 picks.

Painter does have one thing in common with Ryan: an underwhelming passer efficiency rating (46th last year in Joe Tiller's QB-friendly system) against a wretched schedule. Outside of the Big Ten, Purdue went up against Notre Dame, Toledo, Eastern Illinois, and Central Michigan... twice.

And, like... last year Tiller completely changed his offense to this weird pistol-option thing that got Purdue's run percentage up 50% specifically because he was terrified of Painter. And he's not good. I know, I've watched him for like four hundred years.

I'm not much fond of immediate draft grades. Assessments of players the day after the draft are often comical (and/or painful check out 5:10 and 8:55) in retrospect. The biggest problem is there is no one that can know more than just a brief snap shot of each player and how each player fits into 32 teams. And at the time they are doing their draft grades, they are probably a little tired and writing to deadline.

I'm not going to pretend I can grade out players before they take a snap in the NFL. But what I do know is that so many of the so called draft 'experts' are wildly off base in assessing the draft from what you know right now. So I am going to grade their Houston Texans draft grades, though I am sure you would find inaccuracies and superficiality in just about every team's grades:

The Draft Expert Losers:

Jason Cole, Yahoo Sports: "[Frank] Okam, a former defensive tackle, is likely to shift to guard, a clever move by teams that realize that non-athletic DTs can make for cheap, athletic G's."

Huh? Okam was drafted as a defensive tackle, to be a space eating guy next to Okoye that the Texans did not have. Nobody from the Texans is talking about him as a guard and are happy to get a DT who is large but can still move well.

I give Cole a grade of D. He is spared an F because he gave the same grade to the Texans that I did.

It's a strange thing about ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. that he's known almost as much for his hair as he is for his draft analysis.

There have been too many Mel Kiper hair jokes to count in the 30 years or so that he's been America's foremost draft analyst, but on Saturday The Sports Hernia came up with an original one, trading Kiper's hair for that of ESPN's other draft analyst, Todd McShay.

And then something amazing happened: ESPN not only laughed along with the joke, but put it on SportsCenter. Between this and Chris Berman referencing his YouTube fame, ESPN may be learning that the best way to deal with being laughed at by blogs is to laugh along with them.

With Jake Long officially of the board, the Rams are now on the clock, which I guess, in a mixed-metaphor sorta way, puts the Falcons in the hole Atlanta has all kinds of needs, from offensive line, to defensive line to cornerback to quarterback. But it's that last one that apparently ain't happening. At least according to Hashmarks' Matt Mosley:

Here's what one of the league's top scouts told me last night: "The Falcons are too scared to take Matt Ryan," he said. "There's absolutely no way they take him because of the risk involved."

I warned the scout that Peter King said otherwise, but he stuck to his guns.

At this point in the proceedings, it's fair to assume everybody's lying, but if Peter King is predicting the Falcons will take Ryan that's all the proof I need to know it's not likely.

So what does this all mean for Ryan? Well, the Chiefs, selecting fifth, are a possible target, and the Ravens will be in the Ryan business if he slips to No. 8 or Mel Kiper's retiring. Mosley thinks the draft dominoes could fall thusly:

The Rams will take Glenn Dorsey second overall and then the Falcons will take Chris Long. The Raiders will select Darren McFadden, the Chiefs, Albert and the Jets will go with either Ryan or Vernon Gholston. The Patriots will take USC linebacker Keith Rivers and the Ravens will pray that Ryan slips to them.

Here's to hoping he's right because it'll make me look really smart, and I could use the confidence boost.

Everyone who loves the NFL draft owes a debt of gratitude to ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. A quarter century ago, most people thought it sounded ridiculous that ESPN would devote a full day of television to the NFL commissioner reading the names of college football players, but Kiper helped bring it into the mainstream.

Along the way, the sports media establishment regularly made fun of Kiper, and Kiper hasn't forgotten. On an ESPN conference call to promote the Worldwide Leader's draft coverage, Kiper had this to say about the early days of the draft:

"I remember even our own Mike Lupica, he would rip the draft on The Sports Reporters half an hour before we went on the air. Rip me personally and rip the draft. I don't hear that anymore. It's amazing how many people had negative feelings on the draft that all of a sudden now are shutting up about it, because they figure, 'I can't criticize something everybody loves and has an interest in.' Because the ratings speak for themselves. The negativity that we had to deal with all those years is pretty much over."

Kiper is right about that: The negativity is over. Yes, there are still people who dislike the draft and say it gets too much attention, especially NBA and NHL fans who hate it when NFL off-season news gets better placement on SportsCenter than playoff highlights. But if there was a dispute between Kiper and Lupica over whether the draft was a big deal, that dispute is over, and Kiper won.

The toughest players to evaluate in the NFL draft are the ones who displayed great talent on the field but did not display great character off it: Is it worth taking a guy who plays like Pacman Jones on 16 Sundays a year when he carries the risk of acting like Pacman Jones for the other 349 days a year as well?

Count ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper as one who thinks if you're going to drop a guy on your draft board based on character, you might as well drop him all the way off it.

"If there's an issue that prevents you from taking a player in the first round, then I wouldn't take him in the seventh round," Kiper said today on an ESPN conference call. "I wouldn't sign him as an undrafted free agent."

I do think the NFL executives like Bill Parcells, who says he won't take character risks, have the right idea, but I'm not totally sure I buy the idea that if you wouldn't take a player in the first round, you shouldn't take him later, either. The second day of the draft strikes me as the right time to take high-risk, high-reward players.

And Kiper says that he's probably in the minority in his opinion that character should count as much as talent, adding, "In the end, talent does win out more than likely."

You know what I love about this video? The fact that Chris Mortensen is part of ESPN's panel of NFL experts even though he doesn't seem to know anything about a) Xs and Os, or b) the draft. (Norv Turner and Mike Martz run the same offense -- Jaws laughs in your general direction.) He's also under the impression that Shaun Hill will compete with Alex Smith for the starting job in San Francisco. (Um, Chris, what about this guy?)

Anyway, I mention this because Mel Kiper, who comes off as pensive and understated sitting next to Mortensen, thinks the 49ers will take former Boston College right guard Gosder Cherilus with their first-round pick (29th overall). Kiper also mentions team needs at wideout and outside linebacker but thinks protecting Smith is probably pretty important since Martz' offense is all about getting the quarterback maimed scoring points on slow-developing deep routes.

Another potential target could be former Virginia guard Branden Albert, who is drawing comparisons to Larry Allen. If San Francisco actually has a chance to take Albert, however, there will be an entire fan base ready to go all Jonestown on their team for not drafting him first.

Last Friday, NFL Network's Mike Mayock unveiled the first 10 picks of his mock draft (because if there's one thing the internets need, it's another mock draft*), and some of his selections were eye-openers.

To build the suspense, Mayock's picks, in reverse order:

10. New Orleans Saints: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
9. Bengals: Sedrick Ellis
8. Ravens: Leodis McKelvin
7. Patriots: Derrick Harvey
6. Jets: Chris Long
5. Chiefs: Jeff Otah
4. Raiders: Vernon Gholston
3. Falcons: Glenn Dorsey
2. Rams: Jake Long
1. Dolphins: Matt Ryan

A couple of thoughts:

While the Ryan-to-the-Dolphins selection is kinda surprising (particularly since John Beck was the team's second-round pick last year), it pales next to Patriots taking Harvey. Yes, New England could stand to get a little younger at linebacker, but unless Harvey can also play in the secondary, he seems like a stretch at No. 7. (Hopefully, Scott Pioli, like Matt Millen, patronizes mock drafts before making personnel decisions.)

Second-most shocking: Chiefs grabbing Otah. The Cardinals took Levi Brown with their fifth-overall pick last year (and that seemed a tad high to my untrained eye), but I don't think anybody would argue that Otah and Brown are equal talents. Apparently, make-believe Herm Edwards and Carl Peterson don't subscribe to the Best Player Available draft strategy.

Whether you agree or not, Mayock is very good at what he does, basically rendering Mel Kiper and his wig obsolete. But it's obvious Mayock mailed this one in because he doesn't have Jerry Jones trading up to take Darren McFadden. Duh.

* Look for the FanHouse mock draft in the coming weeks. It's sure to be nowhere near as accurate as Mayock's, but will certainly offend many more people.

I suspect we'll hear that the Dolphins, the lucky winners of the first-overall pick in the April draft, are interested in just about everybody between now and the time NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell makes his way to the podium in seven weeks.

Today's update on who Miami could possibly select No. 1:

Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan and Michigan tackle Jake Long share the same representation, and the Dolphins so far have inquired far more about Ryan, although we are cautioned not to draw any conclusions. The Dolphins requested a private interview with Ryan after BC's March 18 Pro Day. Mel Kiper, on espn.com, believes the Dolphins are leaning toward drafting Virginia defensive end Chris Long, with Ryan a ``distinct possibility.''

Mel Kiper's still alive? I had no idea. Anyway, we've now narrowed down the list of potential first-round candidates to the universe of draft-eligible players. Insightful, I know.

I think most Dolphins fans would prefer the team pass on Matt Ryan since, you know, John Beck was the team's second-round pick 10 months ago. Plus, upgrading the offensive or defensive line is more of a priority, at least early in the draft. Of course, none of this matters; Dallas owner Jerry Jones will be trading up to the top spot to take Darren McFadden. Or so goes the rumor, anyway.

Mel Kiper, the ridiculously coiffed ESPN draft guru has been upstaged in recent years by the NFL Network's Mike Mayock as well as his colleague at the WWL, Todd McShay. He's still relevant these days, but usually a step -- or four -- behind the other teevee draft nerds when it comes to pimping players who have recently skyrocketed up the pretend draft boards we hear so much but have never actually seen.

Anyway, Kiper and his hair are coming around on former University of Virginia guard Branden Albert, a player Scout.com's Jim Wexell was touting two weeks ago, and the same dude Mayock verbally fellated during last weekend's NFL Combine. Whatever, Albert was on Cold Pizza last week talking about the experience of getting naked in front of a room full of middle-aged men, and what it means for his future:



Eh, typical "hey, this is what the combine is like" stuff here, but Albert is a guy who came out of nowhere to probably being a first-round pick. He's been linked to the Steelers -- several mock drafts have Pittsburgh drafting him with the 23rd pick, and everybody knows mock drafts are insanely accurate predictors of future events -- which would make an entire region ecstatic about the prospect of Ben Roethlisberger not getting sacked 200 times next season.