Posts tagged NFLFantasyPreview2008 at FanHouse

This 10-team mock draft was comprised of Fantasy and NFL FanHouse contributors, and took place late last week. Standard scoring format (no PPR) of fleaflicker was used -- as the live draft took place in fleaflicker's really sweet draft room. We went with a 15-man roster because every league in the world has an even number of players on the roster ... we're spitting in their collective faces. Starters? QB, RB, 2 WR, TE, K, D/ST with one flex who can be a RB/WR/TE.

Round 1
1. Matt Watson -- LaDanian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers
2. Shane Bacon -- Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
3. Sean Lalley -- Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
4. Tosten Burks -- Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles
5. Matt Snyder -- Joseph Addai, RB, Colts
6. Ryan Wilson -- Frank Gore, RB, Niners
7. Tom Herrera -- Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins
8. The Piler, JM -- Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys
9. Will Brinson -- Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills
10. Tom Mantzouranis -- Randy Moss, WR, Pats

Well, we heart RBs in round one. It makes sense, since you only have to play one, to garner a studly runner at the top. There are a limited number of sure things. Interesting that Mantz went a Pats WR instead of QB here, but you can't go wrong with any of these first-round choices.

It's a tried-and-true philosophy, one that has guided more fantasy football drafts than perhaps all other strategies combined: Take running backs with your first two picks.

A solid running back is the secret sauce to fantasy football – it's truly hard to win with problems at that position, while you can go a bit more low rent with the rest of your team. While there have always been teams that will grab an elite QB or WR in those first two rounds, it's the strategy where it's hardest to go wrong. (Unless you grab guys like Anthony Thomas or Reuben Droughns, two guys who went in the top two rounds in drafts of years past to the chagrin of their owners.)

Well, like many of the theories you heard about growing up, it turns out to not be true. At least not for this season.

In fact, it's a fair bet that close to half the teams in most leagues won't take their second running back until the third round – or later.

From the days of Olandis Gary (yes, that's him in the picture ... I can't believe I found one) taking over for Terrell Davis to last season's Earnest Graham breakthrough following Cadillac Williams' injury, fantasy owners have long seen backup running backs rise to prominence via injury to a teammate. Conventional wisdom states that you grab the backup runner to your highly drafted starting running backs, and the term handcuff is used to describe this theory.

This isn't always the case, though, unless you have a very large league. Say you have a 10 owner league with only five bench spots. Simply put, DeShaun Foster should not be taking up room on that bench.

Let's take a look at whether or not to handcuff starting RBs around the league in four different categories.

Must Cuff
Ryan Grant -- Grant held out, and now has a slight injury in camp. Meanwhile Brandon Jackson -- supposed to be the starting back last season before injuries and inexperience derailed him -- has been receiving rave reviews from the Packers coaching staff. You can still draft Grant in the 2nd round, but it is imperative to grab Jackson as well.

Here at the Fantasy Fanhouse, we do everything we can to help you prepare for your fantasy draft. (And once your league does their draft, there's no better place to host it than fleaflicker.com.)

A little over a month ago, we had ourselves a Fantasy Roundtable about what pick you'd actually prefer in this years draft. Looking over that, I don't think anyone said anything they yet regret (though, undoubtedly, it's just a matter of time).

The general consensus was that ideally one would get either a top-three pick, or work backwards from the 10th pick to capitalize on getting a higher second-round pick.

But what's the flip side of that question?

That is, what's the worst draft pick position?

In my mind, it's a no-brainer that sixth is the worst place to be.

But, you may say, that's crazy talk. With the sixth pick, you can grab either one of the top five running backs (LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai and Steven Jackson, possibly but not necessarily in that order) or the top at their positions, Tom Brady or Randy Moss.

The drop off in all of those positions is notable after those top seven guys, so locking down one of them is a clear advantage.

Ah, but what really sets off a draft is the first two slots. And that's where drafting sixth really starts to sting.

We're getting right into the teeth of fantasy draft season.

By now, you should have your league set up on fleaflicker (um, if not ... get outta here quick, set it up, and come right back). They do, by the way, have a great mock draft tool for every member.

In this chat, though, we're down to discuss anything pertinent ... and there are tons of things on the table in fantasyland.

Like:

-- Can't decide between the two in the picture above?
-- Did you recently have a draft and want us to make you feel better evaluate your team?
-- Is your draft upcoming and you are on the fence about a few different dudes?
-- Are you scared about taking Steven Jackson, Steve Smith, or Brandon Marshall?
-- Keeper league dilemmas?
-- Wanna come tell us how stupid we are for our rankings or "Five Guys" series? Please do. We're cool with defending choices or taking our lumps.
-- On the other hand, we know you're going to jock us for the offensive line series and "consistency" posts. We like praise.

All this and more. Join some of the Fantasy FanHouse team at 1:00 Eastern for a one-hour fantasy chat. Bring your green hat.

We're getting right into the teeth of fantasy draft season. By now, you should have your league set up on fleaflicker (um, if not ... get outta here quick, set it up, and come right back). They do, by the way, have a great mock draft tool for every member. In this chat, though, we're down to discuss anything pertinent ... and there are tons of things on the table in fantasyland.

Like:

-- Can't decide between the two in the picture above?
-- Did you recently have a draft and want us to make you feel better evaluate your team?
-- Is your draft upcoming and you are on the fence about a few different dudes?
-- Are you scared about taking Steven Jackson, Steve Smith, or Brandon Marshall?
-- Keeper league dilemmas?
-- Wanna come tell us how stupid we are for our rankings or "Five Guys" series? Please do. We're cool with defending choices or taking our lumps.
-- On the other hand, we know you're going to jock us for the offensive line series and "consistency" posts. We like praise.

All this and more. Join some of the FanHouse team at 1:00 Eastern for a one-hour fantasy chat. Bring your green hat.

If you are new to fantasy football this season or don't understand the jargon being used by bloggers or commenters, you may want to bookmark this for quick reference.

Glossary of Common FFL Terms

ADP -- Average draft position. Many fantasy sites show a player's ADP, and this is a very helpful tool heading into a draft. It can't safeguard you against an owner jumping the gun, but if you really want to draft Devin Hester, for example, you can see that he's going as the 40th WR on average in most leagues. This will prevent you from taking him 20th and screwing yourself out of a few better picks.

Bounce-Back -- A player has been good or great before, but had an uncharacteristically bad season. The key to recognizing this is that a player hasn't become old or washed up. Edgerrin James, for example, is pretty much done after passing the RB Threshold last year. Marc Bulger is not done by any stretch. Think Jamal Lewis in '07.

Breakout -- A good example is Roy Williams' 2006 campaign. A player goes from a decent or good player to a great or elite player in one season, but it wasn't all that unpredictable based upon several different factors. Some guys to watch for on this one in '08 are Laurence Maroney and Brandon Jacobs.

Just for fun, we're going to rank each real NFL team as if they were a fantasy football team. The question is quite simple, who would sport the best squad in fantasyland if you needed a QB, two running backs, two receivers, a tight end, a defense/special teams, kicker, and a flex player?

This is also a cheap ploy -- but not as cheap as the free fantasy leagues on fleaflicker -- to link every single team preview (just click on the team name).

Just check out the Colts' fantasy starting lineup, it's disgusting. Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Dominic Rhodes, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, a quality defensive unit, Adam Vinatieri, and Anthony Gonzalez. Wow. I'm sure to hear complaints from Cowboys, Chargers, and Patriots fans here, but you can't run out a better lineup, using this criteria, than Indy. If you played in a 14-team league and had a replacement for Rhodes, this lineup gets you to the playoffs.


The three aforementioned teams have an argument, but each has at least one hole. The Cowboys, for example, run out Patrick Crayton at the WR2 slot, and the flex guy is whomever wins the WR3 job. The Chargers have similar issues, with Vincent Jackson as the WR2 and the flex in flux. The Pats have either Lamont Jordan, Sammy Morris, or Kevin Faulk as the RB2.

Without further ado, let's rank 'em ...

Have you started prepping for your draft yet? Have you started a free fantasy football league yet? If so, Mistakes Were Made is a series that looks at prior drafts in order to not repeat the sins of the past. Previously, we examined why Shaun Alexander was so misread before last season's draft. Today, it's Tennessee Titans QB Vince Young.

Before the 2007 season started, nobody in the league had been upgraded as much as Titans QB Vince Young. In his rookie season of 2006, Young had ended on a high note. From Week 12 on, he had one terrible game and the rest ranged to very solid to spectacular.

Going into drafts, Young was being seriously touted. Many pundits ranked him solidly as a QB1, especially in twelve team leagues. At least one major publication had him ranked as the #8 quarterback overall. Instead, Young was barely usable as a QB2 most weeks and finished the season barely in the top-20 overall.

Why did people miss so badly? The answer is surprisingly simple: rushing touchdowns.

In 2006, Young scored seven times on the ground, masking his mere 12 TD through the air. Rushing touchdowns are notoriously hard to predict, even for bonafide running backs. To be worthy in anything but a TD-only league, a player has to be at least a semblance of a complete player. Last season, Young not only declined his passing touchdowns from twelve to just 9, he scored just three rushing TD. That's the same amount that the virtual statue Peyton Manning scored.

Part of the blame was the woeful offense of the Titans – it's hard to throw touchdowns to guys who can't get open. But fantasy pundits and owners blew it because they overlooked how fragile his 2006 statistics were. Luck plays a big part in all of sport – it's just important to recognize it when it's there.

With Fantasy Football season ready to kick in high gear, Fantasy FanHouse is here to preview each and every team. Listen closely, you're almost guaranteed to win your FREE fantasy football league, only over at Fleaflicker.

Meet The ...
Most unpredictable fantasy team ever. If you want to try and sort through this mess with me, let's give it a whirl. The QB is either going to Josh McCown, Chad Henne, or John Beck. Ronnie Brown has proven himself an elite fantasy back when healthy, but he's coming off ACL surgery. His backup has reportedly been impressive in workouts thus far ... and it's the 31-year-old, CFL-playin', pot-smokin', retirin' to all things zen Ricky Williams. You want a piece of that on your team? Then you've got Cam Cameron's favorite returner and a guy who had only 518 yards receiving for the Jags as the top two wideouts. So let's break out the machete and slice through all this crap to the bare bones ...

... this team is going to suck. Bill Parcells likes to break everything down and plan for the future. Even if the team heads into the season with McCown as the starter -- as reports would suggest currently -- the present will yield to the future sooner than later. If Parcells was sold on Beck, he wouldn't have taken Henne with his second-round pick. Thus, by the halfway point (and probably the quarter-way point), Chad Henne is your QB. I don't care that Parcells isn't the actual head coach.