Posts tagged RandyJohnson at FanHouse

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

- Wild-Card Races Taking Shape: This isn't quite what we expected a week ago. The AL wild-card race was supposed to come down to the wire with Boston, Minnesota, Chicago and just maybe the Yankees battling for two spots in the postseason, while the NL was supposed to be a foregone conclusion, with the hard-charging Brewers cruising into October.

But just the opposite has happened. Boosted by the superb play of Dustin Pedroia and the strong returns of Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, the Red Sox are pulling away in the American League and making a strong push to win the East again.

Milwaukee, on the other hand, is slumping at the wrong time -- pulled down by a miserable relief corps. The Phillies are now lurking four games back of the Brew Crew. It's still unlikely that Milwaukee will miss out on the October festivities, but both of the NL East clubs have played well enough that a wild-card bid is not out of the question for either.

Time is growing short, but all it takes is a week for things to shift dramatically.

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

- Arizona Aces Faltering: One of the reasons I, and several other pundits, think the Diamondbacks will be a very dangerous team in October is because of the Brandon Webb-Dan Haren-Randy Johnson trio at the top of their rotation. It has the potential to be devastating in the postseason, but if they don't get their collective acts together, it might be a moot point.

Haren, Webb and Johnson have started the last three games for the Snakes, putting up this cumulative line: 13 IP, 24 H, 16 ER. All three are seasoned pros, and if this were June or July, this streak would barely be worth batting an eyelash over.

It's September, though. Time is short and the Diamondbacks' edge in the NL West is slim. Arizona can't afford another stretch like this from the top three pitchers on its staff.

On Deck is FanHouse's look at the day's most intriguing baseball matchups.

Philadelphia Phillies (65-58) at San Diego Padres (48-75) 8:05 PM ET

Premature to say that this game against the downtrodden San Diego Padres is a must game for the Phillies? Definitely. And just because the Mets are on an upswing against league dregs like Washington and Pittsburgh and the Phillies were swept by a division leader doesn't mean the Phillies are dead and buried. But just five days ago the Phillies were up on the Mets by two games. On this day, it's the reverse. So this is a valley that the Phillies would do well to dig out of starting tonight. The Phillies have the right guy on the mound to do that in Cole Hamels.

The time has come for the Baby Backs to grow up, at least a little bit. Earlier this week, the Diamondbacks handed out a contract extension to co-ace Dan Haren which will keep him in Arizona until at least 2012. Former NL Cy Young winner Brandon Webb is going to be his teammate until 2010, though he has had on-again, off-again extension talks with the club himself.

Throw the resurgent Randy Johnson -- who is pitching well enough that he might return next year -- in there and Arizona has a formidable front three in its rotation. Webb, Haren and Johnson have combined for 37 wins and the team ranks third in the NL in ERA despite a bullpen that has been shaky at times.

In short, the Diamondbacks have the pitching to win a championship.

And yet, here they sit hovering just above the .500 mark and clinging to their lead in the NL West, with the improved Dodgers bearing down on them and less than 50 games left in the regular season. Arizona is capable of much better, especially with the pitching on hand, and yet it continues to play a frustrating waiting game with its young hitters.

While the Oakland Athletics were only six games behind the Los Angeles Angels when they traded Rich Harden to the Chicago Cubs, I don't think many people were expecting the A's to actually catch and pass the Angels. Obviously, Billy Beane didn't think it mattered, or else he wouldn't have made the deal.

So when Harden came to Chicago, he was entering a whole new world as he became one of the newest knights of Cubdom's round table. Not only was he thrust into the middle of what could be baseball's most exciting division race, but he suddenly found himself pitching in front of 40,000 people, and they were all cheering for him.

That kind of stuff just never happened in Oakland.

Still, after two starts with the Cubs, Harden has also learned that not everything in Cubdom is always what it seems. In those two starts, Rich has been his typical (when healthy) dominant self. He's pitched 12 1/3 innings, allowed six hits, one run, and struck out 20.

He's also 0-1 after the Cubs were shutout by Randy Johnson in his start last night, and his new bullpen blew a seven-run lead in his first start against the Giants. So Rich already knows all too well what life is like when you're wearing a Chicago Cubs jersey.

The good news for both Harden and the Cubs is that he has pitched so well and is showing none of the signs of breaking down that were being reported after the trade. There is no drop in velocity and he is overpowering hitters. It's only a matter of time before his teammates start helping him out, and the sooner the better, as the Cubs lead in the Central has shrunk to only two games.

On Deck is FanHouse's look at the day's most intriguing baseball matchups

Since the Milwaukee Brewers and the Chicago Cubs are the two teams in the NL Central making all the moves, most people have begun writing off the St. Louis Cardinals as division contenders. It's pretty hard to blame anyone for feeling this way. After all, in recent weeks the Brewers have added an ace to their starting rotation in CC Sabathia, and just yesterday they added some infield depth when they picked up Ray Durham from the Giants.

I don't expect the Durham trade to be Milwaukee's last play, either.

Meanwhile, the Cubs have added Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin to their pitching staff, and there's talk they're thinking of adding someone like A.J. Burnett to the rotation, and Brian Fuentes or Huston Street to the bullpen.

The Cardinals? Well, for the most part they're just crossing their fingers that Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright can return in August and provide a boost to the ballclub. The problem with this approach is that the Redbirds may very well find themselves out of the race by then if they sit on their hands. That's why every game right now is important for the Cardinals, and the four game set they're about to begin with the Brewers tonight is huge.

Spot Jobs gambles by picking five spot starters for the week and five usual starters to avoid. The success rate is usually around 50%, but the risk level is always through the roof. Obviously, though, you always start Brandon Webb (when healthy) and sit Dave Bush.

Five Up

Josh Johnson, Marlins, @SD -- It's been a long time since Johnson pitched in the majors. He will again this week, though. Back in 2006 Johnson compiled a 3.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP to go with his 12-7 record. He also punched out 133 hitters in 157 innings. This week he gets to re-join his Marlins teammates in the pitcher's paradise that is Dodger Stadium.

Justin Verlander, Tigers, vs. Tribe -- He's been a colossal disappointment this year, but he's starting to turn the corner just as the offense has awakened ... and the Indians can't hit.

Jeremy Guthrie, O's, @ Toronto -- He's maddeningly inconsistent, but is dazzling when he's on, which means you have to play matchups. The Jays are towards the bottom in most AL offensive categories, so this one fits the bill.

Jo-Jo Reyes, Braves, @ SD -- Talented, young pitcher looking for his way? Enter spacious Petco Park and the Padres putrid offense (Adrian Gozalez excepted, obviously).

Sean Marshall, Cubs, vs. Giants -- Cubs like to play at home. Giants hit .265 on the road. Marshall just dealt against the Cards on the road. All signs point to "yes" here.

Spot Jobs gambles by picking five spot starters for the week and five usual starters to avoid. The success rate is usually around 50%, but the risk level is always through the roof. Obviously, though, you always start Brandon Webb (when healthy) and sit Dave Bush.

Five Down

Randy Johnson, DBacks, @ Boston -- As I assumed would happen when he was going well, he's in the middle of a free-fall. He's done. I wouldn't start him again the rest of the season anyway, but getting the Red Sox in Fenway is a rough task for anyone. Do not let him destroy your ERA and WHIP just for a few Ks.

Roy Oswalt, Astros, vs. Rangers -- I don't trust him anymore, and the Rangers lead the majors in runs scored. He's already disappeared from "must-start" territory, so why would you let him go against a team that mashes like Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Milton Bradley, and company?

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox, @ Houston -- That last debacle of a start was enough to scare me temporarily, and the Astros definitely have the potential to take advantage of mistakes in that park. I like him for one sit and then he's back to a must-start.

Saber Bombs are MLB FanHouse's introduction to sabermetrics, those new and sometimes unwieldy metrics that are changing the way we think about baseball

If you're even a semi-ardent baseball fan, chances are good that you've seen MLB.com's new Gameday feature this year, which gives an incredible and detailed synopsis of the action on the field. The most interesting byproduct of the new Gameday is that Pitch FX data is now available to the general public for every pitch throw. If you're unfamiliar, Pitch FX measures the speed of each pitch in two places (at the release point and as it crosses the plate), as well as horizontal and vertical break. Many people see this wealth of information as the next frontier of sabermetrics, because it allows more detailed analysis than ever of each pitcher's start.

Earlier today, Brinson already told you about Nick Piecoro using Pitch FX to analyze Brandon Webb's "dead arm." Spurred on by that and Bob Melvin's claim of Randy Johnson's fastball being fine, despite radar gun reports, I decided to dig into Dan Brooks' Pitch FX tool to see if Melvin was right about the Unit. Follow along after the jump, and I'll show you how I answered the question.

Randy Johnson is 44 years old. Decreased velocity on his face melter of a fastball is kind of part of the gig, at least as it pertains to getting older. So who else are you gonna blame outside of Mother Nature when the Unit's speed dips another notch or two as he heads into his later years?

Because just chalking it up to age would be too simple, Bob Melvin is apparently going to blame the radar gun at Chase Field.

'Our in-game gun was off,' Melvin said. 'I'm looking up and seeing 87 and 88 [mph readings] throughout the game, and we had him catching 94 and averaging 91 on our gun. I don't want to say that it plays into it psychologically, but the pitcher can't help but look up there.'

Please bear in mind that Unit got straight lit for seven earned runs and 10 hits in less than five innings, so there's a reason behind the psychological justification here.

There's also the possibility that Melvin is just right about this; he stated that this happens in other parks and that usually the Chase Field gun is "pretty consistent". Of course, if it was, wouldn't the Snakes have seen this before? And also, this can apparently happen in a lefty v. lefty situation, but that seems like it would have been noticed with Johnson on the hill before too.

It's all very odd, especially when there's factual evidence that Brandon Webb, also showing signs of a dead arm, doesn't actually have decreased velocity. Then you add in the fact that radar guns at home parks are almost never under the home pitcher's speed, coupled with Johnson's age, and things seem a little shaky.