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    The Dugout

    Read the latest baseball satire from the warped minds of
    The Dugout.

    If the First Half Is Any Guide ...

    By LARRY STONE,
    AOL
    Posted: 2008-07-09 10:43:50
    Filed Under: MLB, Sports
    Sports Commentary

    In pure mathematical terms, the second half of the major league season is already well under way, now that each team has passed the 81-game mark and some are hitting 90.

    But in keeping with time-honored baseball tradition, the halfway point will really come next week, when the All-Star break serves as the de facto line of demarcation.

    Second Half Storylines

    Evan LongoriaAl Messerschmidt, Getty Images

    Rays of Hope: Tampa Bay is a contender now, but with youngsters like Evan Longoria, pictured, in key roles, it is completely fair to wonder if the Rays will wilt in the dog days of summer.

    1 of 10PHOTOS

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    And what a wild and wacky first half it has been, complete with melodrama, farce, pathos and mega-star power. But enough about Alex Rodriguez's love life.

    The first half belonged, first and foremost, to the Tampa Bay Rays, who soared from doormats to the penthouse.

    It belonged to Josh Hamilton, Chipper Jones and Lance Berkman, who put up eye-popping numbers at the plate.

    It belonged to Tim Lincecum, the most riveting breakout pitcher since Mark Fidrych.

    It belonged to Jon Lester, the cancer survivor turned no-hit wonder.

    It belonged to Ken Griffey Jr., who joined the elite group with 600 or more homers.

    It belonged to the Angels, who purred right along despite injuries that would have broken many teams, and the Twins, who traded away their ace, Johan Santana, lost Torii Hunter and thrived anyway.

    And it belonged to the city of Chicago, which can legitimately dream of the first North Side/South Side World Series since 1906 -- and, depending on one's loyalties, of the end of a 100-year drought.

    It's all enough to make you wish that annoying little game next Tuesday in the Bronx gets over with so we can find out what the second half has in store. Here are 10 storylines to look forward to:

    1. Can the Rays keep it up? There's absolutely no reason to think they won't. It's a great mix of youth and experience, with an emerging superstar in Evan Longoria, maybe the deepest rotation in the league (and the potential to get even deeper with former No. 1 overall pick David Price nearly ready to come up), and a bullpen that has been sensational. With closer Troy Percival on the DL for the second time (hamstring), the Rays are eyeing Brian Fuentes, among others. They might not win it, but the Rays aren't going away.

    2. What will the trade deadline bring? Now that the CC Sabathia shoe has dropped (and what a massive piece of footwear that is) and Rich Harden has been dealt, the rest of the contenders are eager to get their own stretch-drive fortification.

    Keep an especially close eye on the Mariners, Rockies and Padres, three failing teams that could really empty their cupboards. Among the names that could be on the move this trading season: Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, Adrian Beltre, Raul Ibanez, Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf, Brian Giles, Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Fuentes, Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., A.J. Burnett, David Eckstein, Mark Teixeira, Xavier Nady, Jack Wilson, Paul Byrd and Casey Blake. Among others.


    3. What players from within will make the biggest impact? Boosts don't always have to come from outside the organization. Just look what Jacoby Ellsbury did for the Red Sox last year after he came up from Pawtucket. Price could give the Rays a lift, as could the Twins' Francisco Liriano, who is dominating the International League. But the biggest augmentation will come from players coming off the disabled list. Some possibilities: David Ortiz, Alfonso Soriano, Orlando Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Frank Thomas, Brad Penny, Yovani Gallardo, Phil Hughes, Chien-Ming Wang (who has an outside chance of returning in September) and Tom Glavine.

    4. Will CC Sabathia lead the Brewers to their first playoff berth in 26 years? Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin bet heavily that the answer is yes, and considering the weak state of wild-card competition in the National League, it's a gamble well worth taking. If the Brewers do get to the postseason, look out. A one-two punch of Ben Sheets and Sabathia would be formidable.

    5. Who will win the battle for Chicago? The Cubs are scuffling a bit, but Rich Harden, acquired from Oakland on Tuesday, could be just what they need if he can stay healthy. The White Sox have to hold off a resurgent Twins team and brace for an inevitable charge by the Tigers. But there's a solid chance for both teams to be in the postseason together for the first time since '06 (that's 1906, not 2006), when the fabled "Hitless Wonders" stunned the Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance Cubs powerhouse that had gone 116-36 during the regular season.

    6. Will Yankee Stadium and Shea Stadium both be vacant in October? If those stadiums, which will be replaced next year, are dark during the playoffs, heads will surely roll in both the Bronx and Queens. If the season ended today, both the Yankees and Mets would be on the outside looking in.

    7. Will anyone in the NL West finish over .500? Only in this woeful division can the Giants and Rockies stagger to the halfway point more than 10 games under .500 -- and still find themselves in the race.

    Since divisional play began in 1969, the three teams with the worst record to finish in first place are the 2005 Padres (82-80, .506), the 1973 Mets (82-79, .509), and the 2006 Cardinals (83-78, .516). But consider this: The '73 Mets beat the Big Red Machine to win the NL pennant, and the '06 Cardinals battered the Tigers in five to win it all. So there's hope for the Diamondbacks, Dodgers and friends.

    8. Will Barry Bonds be heard from again? OK, so no team wanted to sign on to the Bonds' circus for a full season. Call it a blackball, or call it prudent decision-making.

    But isn't it possible that one team, within a sniff of the playoffs, will decide that having Bonds' big left-handed bat for two months is worth the headaches and scrutiny? Probably not, but World Series lust is a powerful intoxicant.

    9. When will Seattle's Ichiro Suzuki reach 3,000 combined hits and other statistical pursuits? Last year at this time, the huge, the looming storyline for the second half was Bonds' pursuit of Hank Aaron's home run record, achieved on Aug. 7 in San Francisco. Nothing quite so dramatic is in the offing, but one to watch is Ichiro, who, through Monday, had 2,983 combined hits in his pro career (1,705 with the Mariners, 1,278 in Japan).

    Gary Sheffield, with 485 homers, should reach 500, while Randy Johnson would need to pitch incredibly well to get the 11 victories he needs to reach 300. Meanwhile, Francisco Rodriguez, with 34 saves already through Monday, is taking aim at Bobby Thigpen's 1990 single-season record of 57. Chipper Jones, hitting .384, would need a super-human second half to reach .400; ditto Hamilton and Berkman on attaining Triple Crowns.

    10. Will this be the final curtain call for all-time greats? Among the players who could bow out are Johnson, Glavine, Maddux, Griffey, John Smoltz, Curt Schilling and Omar Vizquel.

    We'll see them again in Cooperstown. Until then, savor the time they still have -- and buckle up for a wild ride. A-Rod included.

    2008 AOL LLC. All Rights Reserved.
    2008-07-08 22:52:33


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    Recent Comments

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    3 comments

    jkf573 03:06:13 PM Jul 11 2008

    If Omar Vizquel does hang it up after this season, I hope the writers don't forget him when he becomes eligible for Cooperstown. With apologies to Ozzie, Omar is the finest defensive shortstop I've ever seen. Period.

    branford 01:46:35 PM Jul 10 2008

    I read the SI pre season predictions from March today .In the east Yankees win by 4 over Boston and Tampa finishes 14 out.

    andreacemarshall 05:15:49 PM Jul 09 2008

    A-ROD and MADONNA ? A-ROD ! Didn't you see the sign at McDonald's that says over 20 BILLION SERVED ? They were talking about MADONNA ! and it looks like you got yourself a HAPPY MEAL ? Finally, is that JASON GIAMBI in that YANKEE UNIFORM or FREDDY MERCURY of QUEEN ? Get rid of that mustache !

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