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Brickyard May Forecast Next Champion

By MONTE DUTTON,

AOL

Posted: 2007-07-25 10:40:28

Filed Under: NASCAR

Sports Commentary

Inexplicably, Indianapolis Motor Speedway has been the one NASCAR track where success has most reliably transferred into championships.

Tom Strattman, AP

NASCAR star Jimmie Johnson kissed the bricks at the Allstate 400 last year en route to his first Nextel Cup championship.

Six times the winner at the Brickyard has gone on to win the championship in the same year. It once happened four times in a row, 1998-2001, and the last two Nextel Cup champions, Tony Stewart in 2005 and Jimmie Johnson last year, have done so after winning the Allstate 400.

Is it a coincidence? Well, in one way, sure. There isn't anything about Indy that should logically predict a championship other than the simple fact that it's one of the season's more prestigious races and teams naturally tend to put a lot of effort into winning there. Great teams win races they target, and they also tend to win championships.

In NASCAR terms, however, the Daytona 500 is alone at the top, and yet, during the same period in which Cup races have been hosted by Indy, the winner of the 500 has gone on to win the championship only twice. Last year Jimmie Johnson became the only driver ever to win the 500, the Brickyard and the championship in the same season.

Indy is a unique track, one that is hardly suited to stock cars. It would stand to reason that winning at one of the so-called intermediate tracks -- Charlotte, Texas, Michigan, Atlanta, et al. -- would be a more likely predictor of a championship. It just isn't true, though. Oddly enough, the closest track to Indy is Watkins Glen, where the winner has gone to win the title five times, three times by Jeff Gordon and twice by Tony Stewart.

No one really knows why winning Indy and the championship have coincided 46.2 percent of the time.

"I think it's a coincidence," said Gordon, who has won Indy four times and the championship an equal number, though only twice in the same year. "I think that winning or losing the Brickyard doesn't mean you're going to win or lose championships. I think the strong teams do well at the Brickyard ... but that doesn't guarantee anything.

"It takes the best team overall to win there. That's the common denominator."

Johnson echoed his Hendrick Motorsports teammate: "The top teams are the winning teams at that track, and then that carries over to the championship."

Never mind that Indy is a fairly rotten place for a stock-car race. It's narrow and flat. Because of the yawning grandstands, many of which are situated on the inside of the track, fans can't see all the way around, which is uncommon in NASCAR other than at the two road courses.

"One of the cold, hard facts is that it's a narrow race track," Johnson pointed out, "and you can't run side-by-side on that race track."

Indy is, however, hard, and the fact that it isn't suited to stock cars makes it a fine test of driving ability. Champions naturally tend to do well there. It doesn't have to be a great race to be a great story.

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Kevin Harvick is a former Brickyard winner, in 2003, and finished third last year. Unlike Gordon and Stewart, he's a stock-car lifer, but that doesn't mean the lore of Indy doesn't appeal to him. Harvick is from Bakersfield, Calif., which also produced four-time Indy 500 winner Rick Mears.

"I grew up a huge Rick Mears fan and always wanted to race at the Indy 500, so winning at Indy for me was pretty special, and every time we go there, it's just the history and the mystique of the whole race track," he said. "You got the old grandstands, and just everything about Indy is just really neat, knowing the history of everything that's gone on."

AS THE NASCAR WORLD TURNS

-- Once upon a time, Bobby Ginn spoke of his personal friendship with Sterling Marlin and said Marlin could drive his No. 14 as long as he wanted. That was roughly a year before Ginn's general manager, Jay Frye, fired Marlin, who had thought he was safe for at least a limited schedule in 2008.

When in doubt, hire a kid. At Ginn, 43-year-old Joe Nemechek and 50-year-old Marlin are out. Nemechek's team is going out of business for now. Regan Smith, 23, is replacing Marlin, and Smith's role as designated hitter for Mark Martin is being taken by another 23-year-old, Aric Almirola.

Wasn't it not too long ago that Ginn Racing was supposedly a contender for Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s services?

-- Tony Stewart is a streak shooter, and his Chicagoland victory could touch off another hot streak, especially with Indy, Pocono and Watkins Glen -- all sites of past Stewart victories -- coming up next.

-- Is it fair to say that Carnoustie, site of this year's British Open, is the Bristol of golf? Padraig Harrington certainly took some hits en route to his overtime (green-white-checkered?) victory. Golf seems really slow to NASCAR fans, but if every tournament were held on Carnoustie's Scottish links, the two sports would certainly have a lot more in common. And, thanks to TV, we now know that Tiger Woods' iron shots go 180 mph.

2007-07-16 11:55:38

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24 comments

hokie88js 05:30:30 PM Jan 24 2008

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Jeff Gordon is the only winner at Hendrick Motorsports and Jimmie Johson is coming on strong 2 but Junior has 2 win Championships and Races and I think the fans that like Junior will say he should not have gone to Hendrick Motorsports that he should have gone to Joe Gibbs Racing or somewhere else that he would have liked

kmckmet 02:25:53 PM Jul 30 2007

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DJ is not the "dirty driver" that his dad was, either
KMK

jimpegamb 12:20:00 PM Jul 30 2007

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................DJ ISNOT THE DRIVER HIS DAD WAS.,AND HE NEVER WIILL BE

allenm556 09:20:42 AM Jul 28 2007

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LET'S GO WITH A PAST WINNER==#88 C'MON ROOSTER!!

gina123wilson 05:21:00 PM Jul 27 2007

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YA'LL LQQK OUT FOR #24! HE'S A PROUD PAPA. DON'T TURN UR BACK!!

roskins8 06:25:03 PM Jul 25 2007

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GO IRL

mikesells4u 11:36:42 AM Jul 25 2007

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The WHY is pretty obvious. Gordon is a winner, DJ is not. The other reason is that Gordon is breaking Sr's records at an early age. Will the move to Hendricks change that? I do not know, but if it does not, Jr and all his fans will have to look in the mirror. I agree that Jr has been a marketing dream. His Dad is a legend and Bud has a really good looking car. Right now, DJ has it all on the line. If he starts winning next year he will be better than gold. If he does not, he will most likely lose much of the support he has enjoyed. He will no longer be able to blame Theresa for his losses. How do you explain that his team mate is winning races and DJ is not? The eqiupment is the same, the difference is the drivers. I say shame on the racing media for not pointing that out when the lame arguement comes up that DJ would win races and championships if he had decent equipment. So, why do Jr fans hate Jeff? Jeff is a winner and DJ is a whiner.

parktim61 08:36:36 PM Jul 24 2007

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I'am a Gordon fan, but, I also like Jr. why do all of you Jr. fans hate Gordon so much? He has done as much for Nascar as Petty or Earnheardt. And he is a driver to respect. I can remember a time long ago , when every one hated another driver. And imagine this , he became americas fovorite driver . Yes the great Dale Earnheardt . So you all should just loosen up and be happy for Jr. I feel he's made the right move for himself. And you call your selves fans !

Dougnjae 02:33:00 PM Jul 24 2007

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Without a doubt, I'm becoming a huge NASCAR fan. I'm actually a gambler. So, I'm trying to figure out how to wager on NASCAR. Hopefully, my friend can help me.

Anyway, regarding your comments about Jr. and Jeff and Jimmy, I think, if anything, it's going to work out for Hendrick. I mean, nobody can doubt Jr.'s money-making power.

www.sportsgameinfo.com

mikesells4u 08:59:32 AM Jul 24 2007

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Lets face it, DEI is losing the number 2 driver they have. Look at the record the last two years. Truex should have bitch slapped Brent Mussburger when Brent asked him about being the number one driver at DEI NEXT year. While the fans and the media have their noses shoved up Jr's butt, the truth is he is a good driver, not a great one. As with many a wanna be, he is riding his daddy's wave. Next year Jr will lose many of his fans when he longer is a beer driver and no longer can blame his step mother for the fact that he fails to climb any higher than the top ten in the chase. Do you really think Jeff and Jimmy are just going to welcome him in with open arms and open legs? They are going to spank him like the red headed stepchild he is.

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