NFL Power Rankings

By AARON SCHATZ, Football Outsiders Special to AOL

A few weeks ago in this space, I wrote that the New York Giants were falling apart at the end of the season for a fourth straight year. Since that time, the Giants have won every single game, and now they are one win from the Super Bowl.

Is this a surprise? Absolutely, but it doesn't mean we haven't seen it before. The 2007 Giants are remarkably similar to another team that made the playoffs because of a couple close wins during a mediocre regular season, then suddenly turned into a juggernaut in January: The 2003 Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers went 11-5 that year even though they only outscored their opponents by a total of 21 points, with a minus-5 turnover differential. This year's Giants outscored their opponents by just 22 points, with a minus-10 turnover differential.

The strengths of the 2003 Panthers were a running back tandem featuring a veteran power back and a shiftier rookie, an excellent pass rush, and a smart middle linebacker. The strengths of the 2007 Giants are a running back tandem featuring a (younger) veteran power back and a shiftier rookie, an excellent pass rush, and a smart middle linebacker.

Jake Delhomme had 19 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in the regular season, but only threw one pick in the playoffs. Eli Manning this year had 23 touchdowns and 20 interceptions in the regular season, yet so far has no picks in the playoffs.

In order to make it to the Super Bowl, the Panthers had to beat two teams they lost to during the regular season, Dallas and Philadelphia. The Giants will need to beat two teams they lost to during the regular season, Dallas and Green Bay.

The 2003 Panthers eventually lost the Super Bowl to the New England Patriots. The 2007 Giants? We'll have to see.

Only eight teams are still listed in the AOL power rankings, but each team is listed with separate ranks in offense, defense, and special teams, based on what all 32 teams would look like at this point in the season using our advanced DVOA metric (explained here) that puts less weight on games earlier in the year.

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DVOA Explained

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) breaks down every single play of the season and compares each one to the NFL average based on situation, adjusted for strength of schedule. DVOA gives proper credit for moving the chains and understands that you can't throw a 30-yard bomb in the red zone. Offense, defense, and special teams are all analyzed separately, and plays can be separated by down, by direction, or in any number of other ways that show us each team's specific strengths and weaknesses.

DVOA ratings may come out looking very strange and completely different from conventional wisdom. However, over the past few years, DVOA has been a better predictor than wins or points when it comes to figuring out how many games a team will win the following year. The same is true when it comes to using early numbers to predict wins later in the season.

Standard disclaimer: This statistical formula is not a replacement for your own judgment, just a tool to use in analyzing performance. Also note that the DVOA ratings do not consider injuries, either in rating past games or in projecting future games.

Ratings after midseason will gradually drop the importance of earlier games to give a better picture of how teams are playing now.

If you want to know more about how the DVOA ratings are calculated, you can read about it on Football Outsiders. You can also find all the specific numbers we use to analyze the NFL, including the actual DVOA numbers.