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      Eight Deadly Sins

      By RAY HOLLOMAN,
      AOL
      Posted: 2008-03-28 12:25:02
      Filed Under: NCAA Tournament
      Welcome to the Morning Drive, your daily guide to the NCAA Tournament and where Boubacar Aw still roams the hardwood of our minds.

      Bob Huggins' wardrobe, Bruce Pearl's sweat glands, everything involving Northwestern basketball (that means you, Evan Eschmeyer) take a backseat.

      Photo Gallery

      Ellen Ozier, Reuters

      Day Six
      Viewing Guide

      1 of 4    

      3. Wisconsin vs. 10. Davidson, 7:10PM ET | Midwest
      The Wildcats' Stephen Curry has been the breakout star of the Tournament, but does he have another miracle in his slight frame after a 25-point second-half outburst against Georgetown? Watch Preview


      Today is a day for free throw jokes.

      Today is the day that Memphis takes the court again.

      So a priest, a rabbi and Joey Dorsey all walk into a bar… never mind. There's probably an HR video involved in finishing that joke.

      But are the punchlines warranted? On the surface, certainly.

      The Tigers, who are 340th out of 341 teams with an impossibly low, winless New Jersey Tech-is-laughing-at-you 59.5 percent, aren't just bad from the free throw line. Memphis is a ground ball heading toward Bill Buckner's glove while Leon Lett showboats before an apparent touchdown as Chris Webber desperately tries to call timeout disaster at the free throw line.

      Their approach at the stripe is something more free kick than free throw, a general heave toward the basket with the hope something good might come of it.


      At a sub-60 percent rate, the Tigers finished dead last in Conference USA in free throw shooting, and we mean of all 24 teams - including the women. The worst-shooting women's team, Tulsa, hit a comparatively Mark Price-like 60.6 percent from the free throw line.

      But what does the Tigers' affront to charity mean in points?

      In 36 games this season, Memphis connected on 520 of 878 free throws. If they had hit 72.6, like Friday's opponent Michigan State, the Tigers would've scored 118 more points this season, or a little more than three points per game. Three points may not make much of a difference in C-USA games or early tournament games, but when Jamont Gordon is launching a game-tying three after the Tigers went 15-of-32 from the line in the second round or when Tennessee pulls out a four-point win after Memphis hit just 8-of-17, three points matters. In Vegas terms, the Tigers are essentially forfeiting home court advantage every time they take the floor and against a team that makes every possession count like Michigan State, leaving points on the board in a low-tempo game hurts much more than leaving points on the board against Tennessee. That's before we even consider how many misses are on the front end of 1-and-1s and how many points are scored as a result of what are, essentially turnovers. Just to compete from this point on in the tournament, the Tigers may have to be at least six points better than their opponents.

      But the easy observation to miss amid all those concussive clangs is that all missed free throws aren't empty possessions. The Tigers are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, grabbing 38.5 percent of all available offensive rebounds (according to Ken Pomeroy's statistics). So if the Tigers find their way to a few rebounds and turn every third or so into two points, Memphis can contain some of the damage done by their awful free throw shooting. As an excellent defensive team an highly efficient offensive team, Memphis may have the firepower to mask some of its struggles, so long as it doesn't put up another 15-of-32 stinker.

      Of course, one free throw can still matter. Just ask West Virginia's Joe Alexander, who, free of having to play basketball for another few months, should have plenty of time to answer your question.

      But if the Tigers can mask their woeful free throw shooting, what is the real deadly sin of the South's No. 1 seed and the seven other teams playing Friday? Find out below:

      Memphis: Will Joey Dorsey Show Up? Beyond Memphis, free throw problems and their occasional runs as a purely 1-on-1 team, the mood of their enigmatic center may be the biggest bellwether for the Tigers' success. At times, like Sunday's win over Mississippi State, Dorsey is a bulldozer in basketball shorts, rejecting shots and planting little Dorsey flags all around the paint. At other times, like his three-point effort in the opener or last year's famous flop against Greg Oden when called out the talented freshman only to wind up on the wrong side of the highlights, Dorsey is a liability. Without Dorsey, Memphis is a team with excellent guard play. With him, the Tigers a threat to beat anyone.

      Kansas: Will Its Perimeter Get Out-Muscled? Even Darrell Arthur has little chance of getting in trouble against Wisconsin's beefy but less than agile frontcourt, so the weakness to watch for the Jayhawks will be in its backcourt where Russel Robinson, Mario Chalmers and Sherron Collins have been successfully pushed around in the past. And if there's one Wisconsin can do (looking ahead to a likely Elite Eight matchup), it's bruise anyone. Well, make that two things. The Badgers can also make the College Basketball Invitational seem exciting next to their plodding style of play.

      Davidson: Stephen Curry Watching. It's easy to do as Curry isn't just the best player on the team, but he's the best thing on college basketball television now that Erin Andrews' season is over. Point guard Jason Richards has been a reliable second scoring option and must put points on the board as no one else on the team averages in double figures. But the three teammates flanking Davidson's dynamic duo must do everything they can to keep springing Curry open, rather than relying on him to get to the basket each possession. Even Superman stumbles, although his jumper probably isn't as effortless as Curry's.

      The Wildcats will also have to do something about its gruesome defense, which allowed Georgetown to make more than half its shots.

      Villanova: Defending the 3-point line. The Wildcats were awful protecting their perimeter this season, allowing teams to shoot both well - opponents connected on 36.3 percent from behind the arc, roughly the top end of the bottom third in college basketball - and often. The Wildcats finished 320th in 3-pointers allowed per field goal attempt and that's not because Villanova has an elite interior presence. The slow-and-steady Hoyas drained 17-of-28 3-pointers, for a 61 percent shooting percentage in the Big East Tournament. But in two wins thus far in the NCAA Tournament, the Wildcats held Clemson and Siena to 27 percent. Teams won't be shy to shoot from long distance against the Wildcats, so they must find a way to keep the conversion rate low.


      Wisconsin: Athleticism on the Perimeter. Michael Flowers is an excellent defender and might be able to keep Curry under 25 in a half, unlike Georgetown, but against Kansas' speedy and deep pack of guards, Wisconsin's season could end in a very slow blur up top.

      Michigan State: Winning the Turnover Battle. The Spartans finished the regular season with a negative turnover differential, partially because they did a mediocre job of protecting the ball, committing 13.7 turnovers on a moderate rate of play, and partly because they didn't create many steals. Region top-seed Memphis couldn't be a worse matchup. The Tigers' athletes can create plenty of steals on the perimeter and they won't cough the ball up. Memphis ranked 11th in the nation in turnover percentage.

      Stanford: Perimeter Shooting. Texas will have no choice but to go zone against the Cardinal and the Lopez twins, which means Stanford will have to find a way to shoot itself into the Elite Eight. The Cardinal isn't a particularly talented jumpshooting team - they've hit just 45 percent of all field goals and 36.6 percent from 3-point range - and their best 3-pointer shooter is mired in a slump. Anthony Goods is hitting a grisly 23.5 percent from long range since the calendar flipped to March.

      Texas: Size. The Longhorns' Gary Johnson matching up against either of the Lopez twins is enough to worry about, but Texas' undersized backcourt may be an even bigger problem. D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams are both elite scorers, but the six-foot-ish duo could easily fit one in each leg of Shaq's shorts. If the referees largely stay to the sidelines and allow the Cardinal to bump Texas' star duo, Johnson trying to figure out which Lopez twin is scoring on him may be the least of their worries.

      2008 AOL LLC. All Rights Reserved.
      2008-03-28 05:28:06


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