Sports CommentaryHeading into training camp, most fantasy owners (including us) had locked in the top of their draft boards.
LaDainian Tomlinson was the ace, Steven Jackson held the second spot, and Larry Johnson came in a comfortable third. Over the past few weeks, though, numerous nagging concerns about LJ have grown into full-fledged red flags. Should Johnson still be the third overall fantasy pick? We discuss the pros, the cons, and the other options.
Charlie Riedel, AP
Chiefs running back Larry Johnson received the contract extension he wanted from GM Carl Peterson, but he still might not be fully ready for the season opener because of all the time he has missed.
The Case For LJIn 2005, Johnson started only nine games but still managed to pile up 1,750 rushing yards, 2,093 total yards, and 21 touchdowns. He followed up by amassing 1,783 rushing yards, 2,199 total yards, and 18 touchdowns in 2006. Over those two seasons, only LT managed more touchdowns, only Tiki Barber finished with more total yards, and nobody picked up more rushing yards.
Johnson is only 27 and carried the ball only 140 times over his first two NFL seasons (2003, 2004). He should still be in his prime, and he's only had two years (25 starts, really) of heavy workload on his resume.
In 2006, the
Chiefs schedule featured seven opponents who ranked 10th or better against the run the previous year. The average rank? 13.1. This year, the Chiefs opponents own an average rank of 15.9, and after week five, the club faces only one defense who finished better than 12th against the run in 2006.
Center Casey Wiegmann, left guard Brian Waters, and left guard John Welbourn have a combined 26 years of NFL experience and 285 starts. They've been on the same team together since 2004, although Welbourn spent his time at tackle. Left tackle Damion McIntosh is in his eighth NFL season and owns 80 career starts. Right tackle Chris Terry boasts the exact same stats - eight years and 80 starts. With only 79 starts, Welbourn is the least-experienced member of the Chiefs
offensive line.
Last we checked, all-around stud tight end Tony Gonzalez and blocking tight end Jason Dunn were still on the Chiefs. That same combination has been with the team since 2000. Between Priest Holmes and Johnson, the Chiefs running backs have been pretty good since that time.
The Chiefs finished 22nd in passing yards, 27th in passing attempts, and 20th (tied) in passing touchdowns last year. While there is room for them to slip further down the rankings, they were hardly a juggernaut. Gonzalez and Eddie Kennison are still around, and the team hopes to improve thanks to rookie
Dwyane Bowe and second-year wideouts Chris Hannon and Jeff Webb. Someone has to be better than Samie Parker, right? And someone will play better than Trent Green (74.1 rating) did, right?
After six seasons with the Jets and one with the Chiefs, it's very safe to say that
head coach Herm Edwards is committed to the run. The effectiveness of Edwards' rushing attacks hasn't always been great, but he's going to feed his workhorses.
LJ certainly doesn't need the preseason work to prove himself, and reports have suggested he's keeping himself in good shape. Given all those factors and provided that Johnson ends his holdout sometime before September 8, why shouldn't Larry be the third overall fantasy pick?
The Case AgainstThe holdout remains a major issue for fantasy owners, as it takes a proverbial leap of faith to draft Johnson right now and assume he'll be in uniform by week one. That's probably the least of our concerns, though.
Johnson set an NFL record with 416 carries in 2006. He chipped in 41 catches and an additional 18 touches in the playoffs. We're not going to cover all the stats again in this article, but history has been unkind to running backs who have carried the ball 370 or more times in a single season. LT and Eric Dickerson were a couple exceptions, and the sample size may yet be too small for everyone to believe in this theory. Yet the numbers are out there and fairly scary. It also bears noting that Johnson has averaged nearly 30 touches per game (745 total) over his last 25 starts. Only one player in NFL history (James Wilder) has averaged even 29 touches per game over a full season and (as far as I could find) only three players have managed at least 700 touches over a 25-game period (Johnson, Wilder, Ricky Williams).
In very recent history, fantasy football players who haven't heeded workload issues were burned by Williams in 2003 and
Shaun Alexander in 2006. Williams managed to play all 16 games following his outstanding 2002 campaign, but his numbers dropped by 493 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 1.3 yards-per-carry. Alexander missed six games due to a broken right foot, and his totals dropped drastically. His efforts and yards-per-carry seemed below average both before and after the ailment.
Johnson may already be showing signs of slowing down. He averaged 5.2 yards-per-carry in 2006 and slid to 4.3 yards-per-carry last year. However, LJ did get stronger as 2006 continued, and some of the slide may be attributed to the retirement of All-World left tackle Willie Roaf in July 2006. His replacements, Kyle Turley and Jordan Black, weren't exactly lauded for their efforts. The Chiefs signed McIntosh to shore up that sore spot.
All-World right guard Will Shields hung up the cleats this offseason, leaving another hole in the line. The veteran Welbourn is stepping into his place, but it's extremely difficult to supplant a 12-time Pro-Bowler. We're less worried about Welbourn and the interior of the line than we are about the tackles, though. McIntosh sprained his right knee on August 6 and has him questionable for the season opener. He could be back later this month, though. Terry returned to play on Thursday night after missing time with a shoulder injury, but he didn't look sharp and could face competition from Turley. Neither Terry nor Turley can be considered bankable talents, as the Panthers,
Seahawks, Saints, and
Rams can all attest. Dunn, the road-grading tight end, hasn't practiced or taken on any contact since going on injured reserve last December due to a herniated disc in his back. The Chiefs hope he can return soon.
Through two preseason games, Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard have combined to complete 16-of-28 passes for 176 yards, one touchdown, and three picks. That's a stellar 43.2 rating.
Okay, so let's say you're sold on all these negatives and want to avoid Johnson at all costs. What are your other options with the third pick?
The LJ AlternatesFrank Gore, 49ers: In his first full year as a starter, Gore piled up 1,695 rushing yards, 61 catches, and 485 receiving yards. Pro-Gore parties suggest
the 49ers improving offense and more goal line carries will help Frank improve greatly on his nine touchdowns. The negatives? Gore busted his right hand on July 30. He should be ready for the season opener (if not the last preseason game), but this injury reminds us that the 24-year-old Gore has multiple knee and shoulder surgeries in his medical dossier. The 49ers also have a rookie offensive coordinator and play-caller replacing Norv Turver. My take: Is it possible to love a guy as the No. 5 or 6 pick but not as the No. 3? Gore seems to carry all the same injury/workload worries as LJ but without the 18-touchdown upside.
Shaun Alexander, Seahawks: Was 2006 the beginning of the end or a big bump in the road? Shaun turns 30 in a couple weeks, has nearly 2,000 carries on his resume, and Steve Hutchinson isn't coming back to Seattle. However, his busted right foot is healed and he's no longer on the cover of the latest Madden. Oh, and he was pretty darn good from 2001-05. My take: Does any other running back offer up a decent shot at 1,500 rushing yards and 15-20 touchdowns? Yes, I'm a Shaun apologist.
Rudi Johnson, Bengals: He's a lock for 1,300-1,500 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. The problem is that his upside is 1,500 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. The downside is that he's carried the ball quite a bit over the past three years and may deserve some workload worries as well. My take: A solid late-first-round pick, but No. 3 seems too early.
Willie Parker, Steelers: Based on last year's numbers (1,716 total yards, 16 touchdowns), Parker deserves to be in this discussion, especially if you think the 26-year-old will see more action in year two A.B. (After Bettis). However, a quick scan through both our rankings and every industry magazine suggest Parker is like Rudi – a nice pick later in the first round. My take: It's a reach.
Peyton Manning, Colts: Did Manning really say that this year feels a lot like 2004? The one where he threw for 4,557 yards and 49 touchdowns? Even if Peyton only has a typical Peyton season, he'll probably lead all quarterbacks and finish amongst the top-five overall leaders in fantasy points. He's a lock. However, most fantasy owners would rather let Amy Winehouse take care of their kids than draft a quarterback this high. My take: 'Tis not for the faint of heart. If you're confident in your abilities to piece together a backfield over subsequent rounds, go for it.
Joseph Addai, Colts: Ah, the sneaky, sexy, we-told-you-so choice of some fantasy sites. I've seen Addai go No. 3 in some mocks. Dominic Rhodes and he helped the
Colts amass 1,762 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns last year, and the theory is that go-go-go-Joseph will be responsible for all those digits in the amazing technicolor dream-Colts offense this year. Or you may surmise that Addai, who had 1,406 total yards and eight scores over 266 touches in 2006, will turn 350 touches into something like 2,000 total yards and 11 touchdowns. However, if you use the Roaf/Shields defense against LJ, shouldn't you also dock Addai for the loss of three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Tarik Glenn? My take: Sort of like with Gore, I'm cool with Addai as high as six, but I don't like him at three.
ConclusionObviously my personal picks and bias shine through in the recap of the other options for the No. 3 spot, and astute readers will see that my current rankings (for general, 50-50 leagues) go something like: LT, Jackson, LJ, Alexander, Gore, Manning. My colleagues don't necessarily agree with me and were willing to state cases for all the guys I listed above.
You don't need to agree with me, either. It's your pick. It's your team. A lot of people have said they are uncomfortable taking LJ third, and I can understand that stance. I don't agree with it, but I understand it. If you're drafting this weekend, I suggest you spend some time fleshing out the first-round choices and make sure you are confident in your pick, whether it be No. 3 or No. 8.
