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        The Road to Sweet Upsets

        By RAY HOLLOMAN,
        Posted: 2008-03-27 08:32:20
        Filed Under: NCAA Tournament
        Welcome to the Morning Drive, the daily guide to the NCAA Tournament and the place where it's Idong Ibok o'clock all the time

        There are some guarantees in life.

        Photo Gallery

        Chris Graythen, Getty Images

        Day Five
        Viewing Guide

        1 of 4    

        2. Tennessee vs. 3. Louisville | 9:57 | East
        The Volunteers are the higher seed, but the Cardinals are the favorite, due largely to Tennessee's less-than-impressive opening weekend and slumping play from point guard J.P. Prince.

        The Cincinnati police department will not go out of business so long as the Bengals continue to call the town home. Every public figure since will eventually be linked to a performance enhancing drug scandal of some description except Mother Teresa (and that's only until her 380 conversion year of 1995 goes under the microscope). An uneaten pastry will never feel comfortable for its existence as long as Jerome James is around.

        But in the Sweet 16, nothing is guaranteed, short of Roy Williams' endless supply of saccharine euphemisms and that a long weekend of Wisconsin and Washington State hoops might bore you into doing your taxes, or worse, watching soccer.

        So after a first weekend that was less predictable than Bob Knight's disposition, will the upsets keep coming?

        Let's just say that if the choice was between, say, a Cougars' victory over North Carolina and Paris Hilton winning a Nobel prize, we'd advise Paris to start shopping for the diamonds to embellish it with.

        But if they do go down, here's how they'll happen.


        7. West Virginia vs. 3. Xavier

        How It Could Happen:         We're not going to say you should bet the mortgage on the Mountaineers, but if you can pry any loose change out of your couch, put it on the line. Of all Thursday's underdogs, West Virginia is the most likely to spring an upset, if not enter as an outright favorite. Stopping the Musketeers starts at the same place their offense originates -- Drew Lavender. In the Musketeers' six losses, the team's star point guard shot a woeful 34 percent from the floor, compared to 46 percent in all other games. Lavender has also been a far cry from John Stockton with the ball in the Musketeers' losses, he has a pedestrian 1.28 assist to turnover ratio in the six defeats against a season mark of 2.48. In general, Xavier's ball-handling is less than disciplined. Sean Miller's team commits more than 13 turnovers a game, which, at the slow pace Xavier prefers is a tremendous number. Bob Huggins aggressive man-to-man defense might be a problem for the Musketeers and their pint-sized 5-foot-7, 155 pound point guard.

        Offensively, versatile forward Joe Alexander should be a matchup Xavier (and any team left in the tournament) will have trouble with. The junior scored 22 points and picked up 11 rebounds against Duke and has arguably been among the top five players in the nation since the calendar flipped to March. The Musketeers overplay to keep teams from shooting 3-pointers and they don't create many steals, so the dribble penetration that worked so marvelously against Duke should be there for Bob Huggins' team. Xavier scored 42 points in the paint against Purdue, but undersized West Virginia may have a chance to turn the tables on the offensive glass. Xavier, no Georgetown sized team itself, has a hard time keeping teams off the offensive glass and the aggressive Mountaineers should be able to make a living off second chances.

        4. Washington State vs. 1. North Carolina

        Why This Could Be an Upset:         Stranger things have happened. Of course, most involved Isiah Thomas' personnel decisions or Bob Knight at a salad bar. If the Cougars are headed for an upset here, they'll have to keep run and gun North Carolina somewhere between first gear and park, bogged down by a tempo that would make John Daly seem like he's in a rush. But the Cougars' methodical play could work in their favor. North Carolina, despite all its offensive flash, is a team that would prefer to be done with defense in roughly the time it takes a NASCAR crew to finish a pit stop. If Washington State makes North Carolina work more than 10 seconds in every possession, it's bound to find good shots. The Cougars will also have to find some way to take the action at center Tyler Hansbrough. North Carolina's center isn't very aggressive on the defensive end nor is he willing to foul, a fact reflected in his anemic shot block totals (he rejected just 13 this season, which is to say just five more than little reserved use Mike Copeland, who played more than 1,000 minutes less this season). If Washington State wins this game, Aron Baynes will have his own parade back in Pullman.

        Defensively, the Cougars must do everything they can to keep the Tar Heels out of their transition game, so lockdown defender Kyle Weaver may need to step on turbocharged North Carolina point guard Ty Lawson's feet a few times. North Carolina is prone to turnovers, averaging 14 a game this season, so Washington State's defensive perimeter has a chance to cause serious problems. Against Hansbrough, the Cougars' interior defense won't have any chance once he catches the ball, so Tony Bennett's team will need to do everything in their power to beat Hansbrough to the spot before the entry pass arrives. The player of the year candidate will shoot jumpshots and that's to Washington State's advantage as he can be a brutal shooter further out. But the Cougars best strategy against Hansbrough will be to keep him off the offensive glass as much as possible and take a page out of Duke's playbook, refusing to put Hansbrough on the line. In the second game against the Blue Devils, the junior center, who already owns the ACC all-time free throw mark in less than three years, didn't get a single attempt from the charity stripe and had a near-season low 16 points. Thirty-five percent of Hansbrough's points come from the free throw line. If Washington State can keep Hansbrough off the line, it will be more than happy to take its chances against a North Carolina team that struggles to shoot from the outside.

        12. Western Kentucky vs. 1. UCLA

        Why This Could Be an Upset:         Short of divine intervention, Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton will need to score 60 points to spring the upset, which, considering the Bruins give up just 59.7 points per game, makes that scoring feat even unlikelier than the possibility of an upset. The Hilltoppers have been a lovely Cinderella team, but UCLA is simply too good in every respect.

        3. Louisville vs. 2. Tennessee

        Why This Could Be an Upset:         A No. 3 seed beating a No. 2 seed isn't exactly a stop-the-presses upset and this one seems as certain as a slew of J.P. Prince turnovers. If the Cardinals pull the upset, Tennessee's problems will start from the moment the ball is inbounded against Rick Pitino's trademark full-court press. The Volunteers' point guard rotation of Prince and Ramar Smith has been exceptionally unimpressive thus far in the tournament, committing eight turnovers in the overtime escape against Butler alone. Against a Cardinals team that forces steals as well as almost any team in the country, that number probably won't go down. And although Bruce Pearls' team is exceptionally balanced, it will need to get more out of struggling star Chris Lofton, who's yet to crack double digits in the tournament. Tennessee could overwhelm any team in the tournament with their hyper-drive offense, so Louisville must be sure it doesn't fall in a big hole quickly. The Cardinals aren't built to stage comebacks.

        Offensively, the Cardinals will have to control the tempo and keep the game somewhere in the 60s, rather than letting Tennessee run into an 80-point night. The Cardinals aren't an elite 3-point shooting team, hitting just a third of their long range shots, but point-center David Padgett should be able to run the team's offense out of the high post against the Vols, who are not an elite defensive team, particularly in the interior. Louisville should be able to dominate the glass on both sides of the court and will need to in order to meet North Carolina in the following round in a match of 2005 Final Four participants.



        2008-03-27 06:58:42


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        13 comments

        restoreusa 07:38:53 AM Mar 28 2008

        Report This!

        Dear

        eagles8707 FROM: 11:23:05 AM Mar 27 2008

        COULD WE TALK ABOUT YOUR POST BELOW THAT YOU MADE? Did you see the score? (Michael Smith)

        Report This! WSU is going to kill UNC. They are overrated. We've seen how good the ACC is and UNC almost lost to both Duke and Clemson. WSU plays in the best conference and their defence is too good. Have fun watching the rest of the games this weekend Tar Heel fans. It is really really funny when you try though! lmfao! =]

        restoreusa 07:37:28 AM Mar 28 2008

        Report This!

        I GUESS I'LL HAVE TO READ THE NEWSPAPER TO GET A SIMPLE, CONCISE LISTING OF THE GAMES PLAYED AND THE SCORES - nothing as simple here on AOL???????

        What are all these posts about how WSU will fight off Carolina? Did you READ the score?

        Michael Smith

        pixiesisters 07:06:08 PM Mar 27 2008

        Report This!

        I want UCLA to win and beat Western kenat ena

        papa9453 06:44:57 PM Mar 27 2008

        Report This!

        hey eagles8707 I don't know what you've been smoking, but if you thing WSU is going to blow out UNC, it must be pretty potent. Can they beat the Tarheels? Yes, of course, on any given day (etc.) but it ain't likely. However, it will be a very good game and I certainly don't think the Heels will completely blow them out like the last two games.

        shorthosep 06:03:31 PM Mar 27 2008

        Report This!

        your team plays Wisconsin tomorrow @7:10 GO BADGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        proze 05:15:20 PM Mar 27 2008

        Report This!

        why is it i can not find anywhere on the internet when and who davidson is playing next help

        fonda1law 02:52:14 PM Mar 27 2008

        Report This!

        Looks like the end of my post got cut off. I was saying I was looking for a hard fought close game. If it is a low scoring game, WSU has a chance, I'd say still les than 50% chance of winning. If either team "kills" the other as Eagles8707 suggests, it is far more likely to be UNC blowing WSU out. Virginia Tech is a good team which plays very good defense and tries to limit possessions. UNC won a close game against them and blew them out in another. Remember UNC"s loses came while Ty Lawson was injured. He has a comparable assist to turnover ratio to Taylor Rochestie and is just now back to 100%. WSU fans ought to be proud of their team. They are probably playing their best ball of the season, but so ar the Tarheels.

        bobolinkers 02:17:03 PM Mar 27 2008

        Report This!

        wvu tonight all the way

        bobolinkers 02:16:30 PM Mar 27 2008

        Report This!

        wvu tonight baby all they way

        dheepa630 11:59:37 AM Mar 27 2008

        Report This!

        go heels!

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