Don't Believe Anyone Before Draft Day

Sports Commentary

One of former Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Tice’s greatest strengths was also one of his greatest weaknesses.

He was honest to a fault.

To that end, with the 2005 NFL Draft fast approaching and the Vikings holding the seventh overall pick, Tice wheeled toward the exit to the media room at the team headquarters and uttered something to the effect of: “Don’t hold against me if I lie to you in the coming weeks.” In the NFL, April Fools’ is an entire month.

“You consider anything anybody says starting on April 1 propaganda,” says an agent who has represented several top draft picks. “Guys lie to their best friends.

“You just have to weed your way through the bull.”

The NFL is collectively neck-deep in mess every spring.

This offseason is no exception.

Teams, especially the ones holding the top picks, quietly and sometimes publicly complain about exorbitant rookie contracts and bemoan the lack of interest in trading down. “No one wants to pay that value to go up and get that (No. 1) pick because now you’re dealing with the economics,” Miami Dolphins general manager Jeff Ireland said on April 17. A few moments later, when asked again how economics impacts the top pick, Ireland said, “You hope that this guy is a pillar of your defense for a long time.”

Did Ireland, a rookie GM, inadvertently show his hand?

Since that “slip,” there have been reports that the Dolphins have been negotiating with upwards of three different players and that Ireland and executive vice president Bill Parcells were playing hardball with the rookies’ agents.

After all the hot air and hyperbole, the Dolphins on Tuesday announced their top pick: offensive tackle Jake Long.

There were jokes and smiles at the Dolphins’ press conference Tuesday, since Long and the Dolphins will avoid a messy holdout like last year’s top pick, Oakland Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell.

Asked if he is a good liar or if something changed after his “slip” last week, Ireland coyly said, “That is probably for me (to know) and for you to guess about.”

The moral: don’t believe anyone.

With the landscape set, here is a look at the myths and truths of the NFL’s top picks:

Fallacy: The rookie contracts are out of control.

Honesty: The price is obviously steep; Long netted $30 million in guarantees, the same amount three-time All-Pro defensive end Dwight Freeney received in July 2007.

But as NFL business booms, with the league and owners cashing in, the players want to stay on pace. There are reports that veterans are fuming about the cost. Truth is, the proletariat players who aren’t in a position to capitalize on a premium NFL contract are probably the ones anonymously airing their complaints.

Think Ben Roethlisberger had a problem with JaMarcus Russell pocketing $32 million in guarantees as the top pick in the 2007 NFL Draft? Think Dwight Freeney had a problem with Mario Williams signing a deal that assured him $26.5 million in guarantees as the top pick in the 2006 NFL Draft? Both veterans were rewarded with richer contracts.

Despite boatloads of guaranteed money for top rookies, the richest NFL contracts belong to veterans with All-Pro and Pro Bowl credentials. On Monday, in a story for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, I asked Vikings Pro Bowl safety Darren Sharper about the more unheralded Madieu Williams landing a six-year, $33.75 million contract earlier in the offseason. While Williams isn’t a rookie, Sharper made a key point.

“You can’t get mad when someone gets paid. I wasn’t mad when I was the highest-paid safety in 2000,” Sharper said, referring to his then-record six-year, $30 million contract with the Green Bay Packers. “That drives up the market for everybody.”

Besides, there is a governor in place to control rookie contracts: the rookie pool. Each team is given a cap – based on a complex formula – to spend on its draft class.

And while agents are always pushing for each buck, to impress future clients, teams often do a disservice to their peers by including gadgets, gimmicks and bumps in contracts not on par with past deals.

Fallacy: No one wants the pick.

Honesty: Former Houston Texans general manager Charley Casserly had the top pick twice in the last six NFL Drafts. Look at any of the trade value charts floating around, and you can deduct that the price to move into the No. 1 spot is extreme.

“You have to give something up, and draft choices are so valuable,” said Casserly, now an analyst for CBS Sports and the NFL Network. “You also have to pay more money.” In 2006, for instance, Casserly said the teams immediately behind the Texans were content standing pat.

“There wasn’t anybody they wanted to trade up,” Casserly said. “Ted Thompson (of the Green Bay Packers) was five, but he’s not a not guy who trades up.”

The fear: not to put all a team’s eggs in one fancy basket.

But there are precedents, most notably in 2004, when the San Diego Chargers selected Eli Manning with the No. 1 pick then shipped him to the New York Giants for quarterback Philip Rivers and several draft picks, including ones that netted Pro Bowl kicker Nate Kaeding and Pro Bowl linebacker Shawne Merriman.

Giants GM Ernie Accorsi believed Manning was a special player, at a special position, and he was willing to pay a hefty price to get him. And while they have endured their ups and downs - Accorsi has since retired - the Giants certainly aren’t complaining about the compensation now as they all get fitted for their diamond-laden Super Bowl rings.

There are NFL suits who make excuses and craft escape routes. Then there are men like Accorsi, old-school scouts with reading glasses and stopwatches who, underneath it all, are as competitive as any player. They thrive on sifting through the hundreds of college players and hitting that grand slam at the top of the draft and then unearthing the gem in the late rounds and in rookie free agency.

Fallacy: The talent pool is thin.

Honesty: Perhaps the greatest cop-out of them all.

I will not perpetuate the problem by listing the NFL’s all-time busts. Instead, I will focus on the players who have thrived.

Some of the most notable No. 1 picks in the last 30 years: Earl Campbell, John Elway, Bruce Smith, Troy Aikman, Orlando Pace and Peyton Manning. Some of the ones who aren’t too shabby: Eli Manning, who led the Giants to an upset of one of the greatest teams in recent NFL history, and players like Williams, Carson Palmer, Keyshawn Johnson and Irving Fryar.

Teams swing and miss early but there are always Pro Bowl-caliber players available later in the first round or even later. Jared Allen, who the Vikings just made the league’s highest-paid defensive end, was originally a fourth-round pick. So was Asante Samuel. And who could forget Mr. Cool, Tom Brady, a sixth-round pick. The list goes on and on.

The key is not to overvalue a player to address a need (think San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns). Sometimes, though, there are extenuating circumstances.

For instance, Casserly noted that the Texans were confident in the potential of their offensive line after acquiring Tony Boselli and Ryan Young, compelling them to select David Carr in 2002. But both linemen were doomed by unexpected injury issues.

"When we took David Carr, we’ve got two experienced tackles, and a veteran center, Steve McKinney," Casserly said. "Then all of a sudden, Boselli and Young never play for us, but we don’t know that until after the draft."

Playing behind a porous offensive line, Carr was sacked a whopping 76 times in 2002, 50 fewer times than Brett Favre.

"That definitely hurt David Carr’s development," Casserly said. "That’s not his fault. That’s nobody’s fault. That’s just bad luck. If we knew we didn’t have an offensive line, we certainly wouldn’t have taken a quarterback.”

In 2005, with the No. 1 pick, the 49ers could have passed on a thin quarterback crop and taken a cornerstone receiver like Braylon Edwards (3rd overall) or a cornerstone pass rusher like Merriman (12th), or a cornerstone offensive tackle like Jammal Brown (13th) or even a cornerstone middle linebacker like Lofa Tatupu (2nd round, 45th overall).

In 2004, with the second overall pick, the Oakland Raiders could have landed a cornerstone receiver like Larry Fitzgerald (3rd overall), a cornerstone quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger (11th), a cornerstone defensive tackle like Tommie Harris (14th), a cornerstone running back like Steven Jackson (24th) or a cornerstone defensive end like Allen (4th round, 126th overall).

On Saturday, will the Atlanta Falcons be able to resist what is widely considered a weak quarterback class with the third pick? Will the Raiders once again roll the dice on a supremely athletic player with some issues at No. 4?

Over the next 48 hours, as information freely flows, take everything that’s said and written with a grain of salt, leaning on the Dolphins as an example of the games played in April. There were persistent rumors of the Dolphins being linked to different players, but Ireland decimated all that with a few comments on Tuesday.

"He was the guy who we were targeting from day one," Ireland said. "You can use leverage here and there. But at the end of the day there was really nobody coming up."

The top pick is signed, sealed and delivered. But the gamesmanship will continue: the St. Louis Rams are officially on the clock.

Sean Jensen can be reached at nothinbutlovefor@aol.com.