Sports Commentary
Although free agency doesn’t officially start until Friday at midnight, veteran NFL agents are already entertaining suitors, outlining red-carpet trips and exchanging contract terms for their clients.
With an already thin free-agent class – thanks in part to 11 teams utilizing the franchise tag – some of the most coveted players are already believed to be off the market.
Receiver Randy Moss is expected to sign a multi-year deal to remain with the New England Patriots, according to two league sources, and linebacker Lance Briggs has been pegged to land in San Francisco.
You think billionaires shop for what they want by crossing their fingers and waiting for stores to open early the day after Thanksgiving?
But the NFL Combine in Indianapolis is a cesspool for misinformation – an event in which grown men often regress to gossiping schoolboys at recess – so distinguishing fact from fiction is a daunting challenge.
Know this, though: with the NFL continuing to thrive financially, more than half of the league’s teams are expected to have at least $20 million in salary cap space to wheel-and-deal on some record-breaking contracts. With a shallow pool of players, second-tier players are going to get some jaw-dropping deals, given a talent drop-off at key positions and what has been described as a modest rookie class.
Here is a closer look at five of the most prized free agents.
1) CB Asante Samuel. Last year, Nate Clements proved the value of his position. One of the league’s top 10 cornerbacks, Clements signed a contract with the 49ers that included a then-record $22 million in guarantees, a deal that still infuriates some league executives. Samuel, one of the top five players at his position, is reportedly looking for a deal that guarantees him $30 million and exceeds $100 million in total value.
Don’t be fooled by Clements supposed eight-year, $80 million deal. The only number that matters is the $29 million he got in his first three years which Samuel will want to top.
That may be wishful thinking, although there is no shortage of interested clubs (the Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles are believed to be among the suitors) because Samuel is just 27 years old, has 16 picks in the last two season and is coming off an All-Pro season.
Just don’t expect the Patriots to be in the Samuel Sweepstakes.
Carolina Panthers' Jake Delhomme, left, and Josh McCown, right, sit on the bench in the third quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles during an NFL football game in Charlotte, N.C., Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. From Delhomme's 11 turnovers in two games to backup Josh Mc Cown's leg injuries, the Panthers are in disarray. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)
AP
GLENDALE, AZ - SEPTEMBER 13: Runningback Tim Hightower #34 of the Arizona Cardinals walks with teammates to the lockerroom prior to the NFL game against the San Francisco 49ers at the Universtity of Phoenix Stadium on September 13, 2009 in Glendale, Arizona. The 49ers defeated the Cardinals 20-16. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Tim Hightower
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GLENDALE, AZ - SEPTEMBER 13: Arizona Cardinals team president Michael Bidwill speaks before the NFL game against the San Francisco 49ers at the Universtity of Phoenix Stadium on September 13, 2009 in Glendale, Arizona. The 49ers defeated the Cardinals 20-16. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Michael Bidwill
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GLENDALE, AZ - SEPTEMBER 13: Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald #11 of the Arizona Cardinals stands on the sidelines during the NFL game against the San Francisco 49ers at the Universtity of Phoenix Stadium on September 13, 2009 in Glendale, Arizona. The 49ers defeated the Cardinals 20-16. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Larry Fitzgerald
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GLENDALE, AZ - SEPTEMBER 13: Quarterback Shaun Hill #13 of the San Francisco 49ers is sacked by Darnell Dockett #90 of the Arizona Cardinals during the NFL game at the Universtity of Phoenix Stadium on September 13, 2009 in Glendale, Arizona. The 49ers defeated the Cardinals 20-16. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Shaun Hill;Darnell Dockett
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GLENDALE, AZ - SEPTEMBER 13: Runningback Tim Hightower #34 of the Arizona Cardinals leads teammates onto the field prior to the NFL game against the San Francisco 49ers at the Universtity of Phoenix Stadium on September 13, 2009 in Glendale, Arizona. The 49ers defeated the Cardinals 20-16. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Tim Hightower
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GREEN BAY, WI - SEPTEMBER 13: Jay Cutler #6 of the Chicago Bears walks off the field following a loss to the Green Bay Packers on September 13, 2009 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Bears 21-15. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Jay Cutler
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CHARLOTTE, NC - SEPTEMBER 13: Kevin Kolb #4 of the Philadelphia Eagles passes against Charles Johnson #95 of the Carolina Panthers at Bank Of America Stadium on September 13, 2009 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Kevin Kolb;Charles Johnson
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CHARLOTTE, NC - SEPTEMBER 13: Donovan McNabb #5 of the Philadelphia Eagles heads off the field after being injured against the Carolina Panthers at Bank Of America Stadium on September 13, 2009 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Donovan McNabb
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GREEN BAY, WI - SEPTEMBER 13: Matt Forte #22 of the Chicago Bears runs against the Green Bay Packers on September 13, 2009 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Bears 21-15. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Matt Forte
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After convincing him to accept a tender last season by promising not to franchise him this offseason, the Patriots will not net a consolation for Samuel’s inevitable departure – yet another blow to an anticlimactic 2007 season.
Meanwhile, two franchised cornerbacks with inferior credentials (Nnamdi Asomugha and Marcus Trufant) may reap the benefits of whatever deal Samuel signs first.
The Browns could make the most sense, given the presence of former Patriots defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, as well as their overall talent. But don’t count out the Saints, either.
2) WR Randy Moss. Last week, there was the “Will they, won’t they…” on whether the Patriots would franchise tag Moss. But Moss is expected to re-sign with the Patriots later this week, and his contract is projected to be for three years, at an average of $10 million per season, including $12 million to $15 million guaranteed.
Could he get more elsewhere?
Of course. But he truly does want to win, and although he did not achieve his ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl last season, Moss still recognizes the value in remaining with the Patriots.
After lamenting his quarterbacks the past few seasons, Moss clicked for record numbers with Tom Brady. In addition, with talented players like Laurence Maroney, Wes Welker and Ben Watson around him, Moss wouldn’t face as many double teams as he would elsewhere.
But his 2008 team shouldn’t expect 2007 Randy Moss; that was a season in which all the stars aligned perfectly.
One concern: Moss turned 31 this month, and he has dealt with recurring injuries.
In this photo provided by the USGA, a black bear runs across the 13th fairway during the second round of the 2008 U.S. Senior Open Championship at The Broadmoor in Colorado Springs, Colo. on Friday, August 1, 2008. (John Mummert, USGA/AP)
John Mummert, USGA/AP
Australia's Sophie Edington balances a water bottle on her forehead during a training session in the Olympic Aquatic Center at the Beijing 2008 Olympics in Beijing, Tuesday, August 4, 2008. (David J. Phillip,AP)
David J. Phillip, AP
Flames rise around Chrissy Wallace's car after a crash in turn one the ARCA RE/MAX Series Pennsylvania 200 auto race at Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, Pa., Saturday, Aug. 2, 2008. After the fire burned out, Wallace restarted her car and drove to the garage. (Russ Hamilton, AP)
Russ Hamilton, AP
Mike Mason competes in the Moto X Freestyle Final during X Games 14 on August 2, 2008 at the Home Depot Center in Carson, California. (Jonathan Moore, Getty Images)
Jonathan Moore, Getty Images
Houston Astros' Hunter Pence (9) and Mark Loretta, center, score to tie up the game as New York Mets catcher Ramon Castro (11) loses the ball in the ninth inning of a baseball game Saturday, Aug. 2, 2008, in Houston. The Astros went on to win 5-4 in 10 innings. (Pat Sullivan, AP)
Pat Sullivan, AP
Ideye Brown (R) of FC Neuchatel Xamax fights for the ball with FC Aarau's Frederic Page (C) and goalkeeper Ivan Benito during their Super League soccer match in Neuchatel August 2, 2008. (Stefan Wermuth, Reuters)
Stefan Wermuth, Reuters
A diver practices at the National Aquatics Center ahead of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games on August 3, 2008 in Beijing, China. (Jamie Squire, Getty Images)
Jamie Squire, Getty Images
Carl Edwards, driver of the #99 Office Depot Ford, celebrates with a back flip after winning the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500 at the Pocono Raceway on August 3, 2008 in Long Pond, Pennsylvania. (Jim McIsaac, Getty Images)
Jim McIsaac, Getty Images
U.S. Olympic basketball team center Dwight Howard makes a slam dunk during a match against Lithuania in Macau, Friday, Aug. 1, 2008. (Kin Cheung, AP)
Kin Cheung, AP
Green Bay Packers safety Atari Bigby rides a small borrowed bicycle a block from Lambeau Field to Clark Hinkle Field for training camp in Green Bay, Wisconsin August 1, 2008. (Allen Fredrickson, Reuters)
Allen Fredrickson, Reuters
3) LB Lance Briggs. Like Samuel, Briggs shouldn’t be available. But the Chicago Bears gave him the same deal the Patriots granted Samuel.
The Bears would love to retain Briggs. But they have already made a huge investment at the position (four-time All-Pro Brian Urlacher has four seasons remaining on a $56.6 million contract), and Briggs has persistently angled for a chance to test free agency. Linebackers aren’t as coveted as cornerbacks or defensive ends. But Briggs is a cornerstone player, given his exceptional combination of size, speed and instincts.
There was a rumor at the combine that Briggs was going to get $35 million in guarantees from the 49ers. But that doesn’t come as a huge shock since his agent is Drew Rosenhaus, someone who revels in playing “the game.”
The 49ers, however, do make sense since Briggs was born in Sacramento and attended high school in Elk Grove, Calif.
4) TE Alge Crumpler. Although he wasn’t himself after offseason knee surgery, Crumpler was a surprise cut by the Falcons. A four-time Pro Bowl tight end, Crumpler topped 700 receiving yards and scored 19 touchdowns from 2004 to 2006. And in 10 games last season, Crumpler scored five touchdowns, including a 55-yarder.
I know the Falcons are all about a fresh start. But dumping one of the league’s best tight ends – especially since he just turned 30 in December – doesn’t seem like a logical move.
Crumpler immediately garnered interest from at least half a dozen teams. But the Tennessee Titans appear the favorite to land him, with general manager Mike Reinfeldt and head coach Jeff Fisher speaking highly of him in Indianapolis.
Since he was released, Crumpler may sign his contract before Friday.
5) DE Justin Smith. Timing is just as important as talent in the NFL (think Clements last offseason). Although he is coming off his worst season as a pro, Smith could hit the jackpot later this week. Two of the league’s top pass rushers (Jared Allen and Terrell Suggs) were franchised, which puts Smith in an enviable position. His greatest competition is Antwan Odom, who mustered just 4.5 sacks in his first three seasons before posting eight last season for the Titans.
Smith, meanwhile, had been steadily averaging about seven sacks a year… until a career-low two in 2007.
A handful of teams are believed to be interested in Smith, including the 49ers and the Minnesota Vikings, because of his high-motor and well-rounded skills. But with his size and lack of overwhelming explosiveness, Smith may be better suited at left end, which definitely isn’t as sexy as right end.
He won’t get anything close to the record six-year, $72 million contract Dwight Freeney got last July. But, if he can generate a bidding war, Smith could land the second-richest deal for his position and average more than $8 million a year.
Interestingly, though, there is speculation that the Kansas City Chiefs might be willing to trade Allen (43 sacks in the last four season) for draft picks, which could dampen the fervor for Smith. Allen has been at odds with Chiefs president Carl Peterson, and he also has a history of DUI arrests.
Sean Jensen covers the Minnesota Vikings for the St. Paul Pioneer Press. He can be reached at nothinbutlovefor@aol.com.
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